Association between depressive symptoms and incident cardiovascular diseases

Importance: It is uncertain whether depressive symptoms are independently associated with subsequent risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD). Objective: To characterize the association between depressive symptoms and CVD incidence across the spectrum of lower mood. Design, setting and participants: A pooled analysis of individual-participant-data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (ERFC; 162,036 participants; 21 cohorts; baseline surveys, 1960-2008; latest follow-up, March 2020) and UK Biobank (UKB; 401,219 participants; baseline surveys, 2006-2010; latest follow-up, March 2020). Eligible participants had information about self-reported depressive symptoms and no CVD history at baseline. Exposure: Depressive symptoms were recorded using validated instruments. ERFC scores were harmonized across studies to a scale representative of the Centre for Epidemiological Studies Depression scale (CES-D; range 0-60; ≥16 indicates possible depressive disorder). UKB recorded the Patient Health Questionnaire-2 (PHQ-2; range 0-6; ≥3 indicates possible depressive disorder). Main Outcomes and Measures: Primary outcomes were incident fatal/nonfatal coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke and CVD (composite of CHD and stroke). Hazard ratios (HRs) per 1-SD higher log-CES-D or PHQ-2 adjusted for age, sex, smoking and diabetes were reported. Results: Among 162,036 participants from the ERFC, 73% were female, mean (SD) age at baseline was 63 (9) years, and 5,078 CHD and 3,932 stroke events were recorded (median follow-up, 9.5-years). Associations with CHD, stroke and CVD were log-linear. HRs (95%CI) per 1SD higher depression score for CHD, stroke and CVD respectively were 1.07 (1.03-1.11), 1.05 (1.01-1.10), and 1.06 (1.04-1.08). This reflects, 36 versus 29 CHD events, 28 versus 25 stroke events, and 63 versus 54 CVD events per 1000 individuals over 10 years in the highest versus lowest quintile of CES-D (geometric mean CES-D score, 19 versus 1). Among 401,219 participants from the UKB, 55% were female, mean baseline age was 56 (8) years, and 4607 CHD and 3253 stroke events were recorded (median follow-up, 8.1-years). HRs per 1SD higher depression score for CHD, stroke and CVD respectively were 1.11 (1.08-1.14), 1.10 (1.06-1.14) and 1.10 (1.08-1.13). This reflects, 21 versus 14 CHD events, 15 versus 10 stroke events, and 36 versus 25 CVD events per 1000 individuals over 10 years in those with PHQ2 ≥4 versus 0. The magnitude and statistical significance of the HRs were not materially changed after adjustment for additional risk factors. Conclusions and Relevance: In a pooled analysis of 563,255 participants in 22 cohorts, baseline depressive symptoms were associated with CVD incidence, including at symptom levels below the threshold indicative of a depressive disorder. However, the magnitude of associations was modest.Lisa Pennells, Stephen Kaptoge and Sarah Spackman are funded by a British Heart Foundation Programme Grant (RG/18/13/33946). Steven Bell was funded by the National Institute for Health Research Blood and Transplant Research Unit in Donor Health and Genomics (NIHR BTRU-2014-10024). Tom Bolton is funded by the National Institute for Health Research Blood and Transplant Research Unit in Donor Health and Genomics (NIHR BTRU-2014-10024). Angela Wood is supported by a BHF-Turing Cardiovascular Data Science Award and by the EC-Innovative Medicines Initiative (BigData@Heart). John Danesh holds a British Heart Foundation Professorship and a National Institute for Health Research Senior Investigator Award.* *The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR or the Department of Health and Social Care

Global variation in diabetes diagnosis and prevalence based on fasting glucose and hemoglobin A1c

Fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) are both used to diagnose diabetes, but these measurements can identify different people as having diabetes. We used data from 117 population-based studies and quantified, in different world regions, the prevalence of diagnosed diabetes, and whether those who were previously undiagnosed and detected as having diabetes in survey screening, had elevated FPG, HbA1c or both. We developed prediction equations for estimating the probability that a person without previously diagnosed diabetes, and at a specific level of FPG, had elevated HbA1c, and vice versa. The age-standardized proportion of diabetes that was previously undiagnosed and detected in survey screening ranged from 30% in the high-income western region to 66% in south Asia. Among those with screen-detected diabetes with either test, the age-standardized proportion who had elevated levels of both FPG and HbA1c was 29–39% across regions; the remainder had discordant elevation of FPG or HbA1c. In most low- and middle-income regions, isolated elevated HbA1c was more common than isolated elevated FPG. In these regions, the use of FPG alone may delay diabetes diagnosis and underestimate diabetes prevalence. Our prediction equations help allocate finite resources for measuring HbA1c to reduce the global shortfall in diabetes diagnosis and surveillance

Worldwide trends in hypertension prevalence and progress in treatment and control from 1990 to 2019: a pooled analysis of 1201 population-representative studies with 104 million participants

Background: Hypertension can be detected at the primary health-care level and low-cost treatments can effectively control hypertension. We aimed to measure the prevalence of hypertension and progress in its detection, treatment, and control from 1990 to 2019 for 200 countries and territories.Methods: We used data from 1990 to 2019 on people aged 30-79 years from population-representative studies with measurement of blood pressure and data on blood pressure treatment. We defined hypertension as having systolic blood pressure 140 mm Hg or greater, diastolic blood pressure 90 mm Hg or greater, or taking medication for hypertension. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the prevalence of hypertension and the proportion of people with hypertension who had a previous diagnosis (detection), who were taking medication for hypertension (treatment), and whose hypertension was controlled to below 140/90 mm Hg (control). The model allowed for trends over time to be non-linear and to vary by age.Findings: The number of people aged 30-79 years with hypertension doubled from 1990 to 2019, from 331 (95% credible interval 306-359) million women and 317 (292-344) million men in 1990 to 626 (584-668) million women and 652 (604-698) million men in 2019, despite stable global age-standardised prevalence. In 2019, age-standardised hypertension prevalence was lowest in Canada and Peru for both men and women; in Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and some countries in western Europe including Switzerland, Spain, and the UK for women; and in several low-income and middle-income countries such as Eritrea, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, and Solomon Islands for men. Hypertension prevalence surpassed 50% for women in two countries and men in nine countries, in central and eastern Europe, central Asia, Oceania, and Latin America. Globally, 59% (55-62) of women and 49% (46-52) of men with hypertension reported a previous diagnosis of hypertension in 2019, and 47% (43-51) of women and 38% (35-41) of men were treated. Control rates among people with hypertension in 2019 were 23% (20-27) for women and 18% (16-21) for men. In 2019, treatment and control rates were highest in South Korea, Canada, and Iceland (treatment >70%; control >50%), followed by the USA, Costa Rica, Germany, Portugal, and Taiwan. Treatment rates were less than 25% for women and less than 20% for men in Nepal, Indonesia, and some countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Control rates were below 10% for women and men in these countries and for men in some countries in north Africa, central and south Asia, and eastern Europe. Treatment and control rates have improved in most countries since 1990, but we found little change in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Improvements were largest in high-income countries, central Europe, and some upper-middle-income and recently high-income countries including Costa Rica, Taiwan, Kazakhstan, South Africa, Brazil, Chile, Turkey, and Iran.Interpretation: Improvements in the detection, treatment, and control of hypertension have varied substantially across countries, with some middle-income countries now outperforming most high-income nations. The dual approach of reducing hypertension prevalence through primary prevention and enhancing its treatment and control is achievable not only in high-income countries but also in low-income and middle-income settings.Copyright (C) 2021 World Health Organization; licensee Elsevier.</p

Worldwide trends in hypertension prevalence and progress in treatment and control from 1990 to 2019: a pooled analysis of 1201 population-representative studies with 104 million participants

Background Hypertension can be detected at the primary health-care level and low-cost treatments can effectively control hypertension. We aimed to measure the prevalence of hypertension and progress in its detection, treatment, and control from 1990 to 2019 for 200 countries and territories. Methods We used data from 1990 to 2019 on people aged 30–79 years from population-representative studies with measurement of blood pressure and data on blood pressure treatment. We defined hypertension as having systolic blood pressure 140 mm Hg or greater, diastolic blood pressure 90 mm Hg or greater, or taking medication for hypertension. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the prevalence of hypertension and the proportion of people with hypertension who had a previous diagnosis (detection), who were taking medication for hypertension (treatment), and whose hypertension was controlled to below 140/90 mm Hg (control). The model allowed for trends over time to be non-linear and to vary by age. Findings The number of people aged 30–79 years with hypertension doubled from 1990 to 2019, from 331 (95% credible interval 306–359) million women and 317 (292–344) million men in 1990 to 626 (584–668) million women and 652 (604–698) million men in 2019, despite stable global age-standardised prevalence. In 2019, age-standardised hypertension prevalence was lowest in Canada and Peru for both men and women; in Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and some countries in western Europe including Switzerland, Spain, and the UK for women; and in several low-income and middle-income countries such as Eritrea, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, and Solomon Islands for men. Hypertension prevalence surpassed 50% for women in two countries and men in nine countries, in central and eastern Europe, central Asia, Oceania, and Latin America. Globally, 59% (55–62) of women and 49% (46–52) of men with hypertension reported a previous diagnosis of hypertension in 2019, and 47% (43–51) of women and 38% (35–41) of men were treated. Control rates among people with hypertension in 2019 were 23% (20–27) for women and 18% (16–21) for men. In 2019, treatment and control rates were highest in South Korea, Canada, and Iceland (treatment >70%; control >50%), followed by the USA, Costa Rica, Germany, Portugal, and Taiwan. Treatment rates were less than 25% for women and less than 20% for men in Nepal, Indonesia, and some countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Control rates were below 10% for women and men in these countries and for men in some countries in north Africa, central and south Asia, and eastern Europe. Treatment and control rates have improved in most countries since 1990, but we found little change in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Improvements were largest in high-income countries, central Europe, and some upper-middle-income and recently high-income countries including Costa Rica, Taiwan, Kazakhstan, South Africa, Brazil, Chile, Turkey, and Iran. Interpretation Improvements in the detection, treatment, and control of hypertension have varied substantially across countries, with some middle-income countries now outperforming most high-income nations. The dual approach of reducing hypertension prevalence through primary prevention and enhancing its treatment and control is achievable not only in high-income countries but also in low-income and middle-income settings. Funding WHO

Association between depressive symptoms and incident cardiovascular diseases

Importance: It is uncertain whether depressive symptoms are independently associated with subsequent risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD). Objective: To characterize the association between depressive symptoms and CVD incidence across the spectrum of lower mood. Design, setting and participants: A pooled analysis of individual-participant-data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (ERFC; 162,036 participants; 21 cohorts; baseline surveys, 1960-2008; latest follow-up, March 2020) and UK Biobank (UKB; 401,219 participants; baseline surveys, 2006-2010; latest follow-up, March 2020). Eligible participants had information about self-reported depressive symptoms and no CVD history at baseline. Exposure: Depressive symptoms were recorded using validated instruments. ERFC scores were harmonized across studies to a scale representative of the Centre for Epidemiological Studies Depression scale (CES-D; range 0-60; ≥16 indicates possible depressive disorder). UKB recorded the Patient Health Questionnaire-2 (PHQ-2; range 0-6; ≥3 indicates possible depressive disorder). Main Outcomes and Measures: Primary outcomes were incident fatal/nonfatal coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke and CVD (composite of CHD and stroke). Hazard ratios (HRs) per 1-SD higher log-CES-D or PHQ-2 adjusted for age, sex, smoking and diabetes were reported. Results: Among 162,036 participants from the ERFC, 73% were female, mean (SD) age at baseline was 63 (9) years, and 5,078 CHD and 3,932 stroke events were recorded (median follow-up, 9.5-years). Associations with CHD, stroke and CVD were log-linear. HRs (95%CI) per 1SD higher depression score for CHD, stroke and CVD respectively were 1.07 (1.03-1.11), 1.05 (1.01-1.10), and 1.06 (1.04-1.08). This reflects, 36 versus 29 CHD events, 28 versus 25 stroke events, and 63 versus 54 CVD events per 1000 individuals over 10 years in the highest versus lowest quintile of CES-D (geometric mean CES-D score, 19 versus 1). Among 401,219 participants from the UKB, 55% were female, mean baseline age was 56 (8) years, and 4607 CHD and 3253 stroke events were recorded (median follow-up, 8.1-years). HRs per 1SD higher depression score for CHD, stroke and CVD respectively were 1.11 (1.08-1.14), 1.10 (1.06-1.14) and 1.10 (1.08-1.13). This reflects, 21 versus 14 CHD events, 15 versus 10 stroke events, and 36 versus 25 CVD events per 1000 individuals over 10 years in those with PHQ2 ≥4 versus 0. The magnitude and statistical significance of the HRs were not materially changed after adjustment for additional risk factors. Conclusions and Relevance: In a pooled analysis of 563,255 participants in 22 cohorts, baseline depressive symptoms were associated with CVD incidence, including at symptom levels below the threshold indicative of a depressive disorder. However, the magnitude of associations was modest.Lisa Pennells, Stephen Kaptoge and Sarah Spackman are funded by a British Heart Foundation Programme Grant (RG/18/13/33946). Steven Bell was funded by the National Institute for Health Research Blood and Transplant Research Unit in Donor Health and Genomics (NIHR BTRU-2014-10024). Tom Bolton is funded by the National Institute for Health Research Blood and Transplant Research Unit in Donor Health and Genomics (NIHR BTRU-2014-10024). Angela Wood is supported by a BHF-Turing Cardiovascular Data Science Award and by the EC-Innovative Medicines Initiative (BigData@Heart). John Danesh holds a British Heart Foundation Professorship and a National Institute for Health Research Senior Investigator Award.* *The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR or the Department of Health and Social Care

Life expectancy associated with different ages at diagnosis of type 2 diabetes in high-income countries: 23 million person-years of observation

Background The prevalence of type 2 diabetes is increasing rapidly, particularly among younger age groups. Estimates suggest that people with diabetes die, on average, 6 years earlier than people without diabetes. We aimed to provide reliable estimates of the associations between age at diagnosis of diabetes and all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and reductions in life expectancy. Methods For this observational study, we conducted a combined analysis of individual-participant data from 19 highincome countries using two large-scale data sources: the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (96 cohorts, median baseline years 1961–2007, median latest follow-up years 1980–2013) and the UK Biobank (median baseline year 2006, median latest follow-up year 2020). We calculated age-adjusted and sex-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause mortality according to age at diagnosis of diabetes using data from 1 515 718 participants, in whom deaths were recorded during 23·1 million person-years of follow-up. We estimated cumulative survival by applying age-specific HRs to age-specific death rates from 2015 for the USA and the EU. Findings For participants with diabetes, we observed a linear dose–response association between earlier age at diagnosis and higher risk of all-cause mortality compared with participants without diabetes. HRs were 2·69 (95% CI 2·43–2·97) when diagnosed at 30–39 years, 2·26 (2·08–2·45) at 40–49 years, 1·84 (1·72–1·97) at 50–59 years, 1·57 (1·47–1·67) at 60–69 years, and 1·39 (1·29–1·51) at 70 years and older. HRs per decade of earlier diagnosis were similar for men and women. Using death rates from the USA, a 50-year-old individual with diabetes died on average 14 years earlier when diagnosed aged 30 years, 10 years earlier when diagnosed aged 40 years, or 6 years earlier when diagnosed aged 50 years than an individual without diabetes. Using EU death rates, the corresponding estimates were 13, 9, or 5 years earlier. Interpretation Every decade of earlier diagnosis of diabetes was associated with about 3–4 years of lower life expectancy, highlighting the need to develop and implement interventions that prevent or delay the onset of diabetes and to intensify the treatment of risk factors among young adults diagnosed with diabetes

Life expectancy associated with different ages at diagnosis of type 2 diabetes in high-income countries: 23 million person-years of observation

Background The prevalence of type 2 diabetes is increasing rapidly, particularly among younger age groups. Estimates suggest that people with diabetes die, on average, 6 years earlier than people without diabetes. We aimed to provide reliable estimates of the associations between age at diagnosis of diabetes and all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and reductions in life expectancy. Methods For this observational study, we conducted a combined analysis of individual-participant data from 19 highincome countries using two large-scale data sources: the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (96 cohorts, median baseline years 1961–2007, median latest follow-up years 1980–2013) and the UK Biobank (median baseline year 2006, median latest follow-up year 2020). We calculated age-adjusted and sex-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause mortality according to age at diagnosis of diabetes using data from 1 515 718 participants, in whom deaths were recorded during 23·1 million person-years of follow-up. We estimated cumulative survival by applying age-specific HRs to age-specific death rates from 2015 for the USA and the EU. Findings For participants with diabetes, we observed a linear dose–response association between earlier age at diagnosis and higher risk of all-cause mortality compared with participants without diabetes. HRs were 2·69 (95% CI 2·43–2·97) when diagnosed at 30–39 years, 2·26 (2·08–2·45) at 40–49 years, 1·84 (1·72–1·97) at 50–59 years, 1·57 (1·47–1·67) at 60–69 years, and 1·39 (1·29–1·51) at 70 years and older. HRs per decade of earlier diagnosis were similar for men and women. Using death rates from the USA, a 50-year-old individual with diabetes died on average 14 years earlier when diagnosed aged 30 years, 10 years earlier when diagnosed aged 40 years, or 6 years earlier when diagnosed aged 50 years than an individual without diabetes. Using EU death rates, the corresponding estimates were 13, 9, or 5 years earlier. Interpretation Every decade of earlier diagnosis of diabetes was associated with about 3–4 years of lower life expectancy, highlighting the need to develop and implement interventions that prevent or delay the onset of diabetes and to intensify the treatment of risk factors among young adults diagnosed with diabetes