An orthogonal curvilinear coordinate system for a world ocean model

A orthogonal, curvilinear grid system for World Ocean modelling is examined. It involves the coupling of two non-singular spherical sub-grids, avoiding the North Pole singularity of the standard, spherical coordinates. The two sub-grids are connected in the equatorial Atlantic. It is shown how to minimize the sudden variation in the grid size across the connection line. It is suggested that the two spherical coordinate systems be considered as a single orthogonal, curvilinear coordinate system, in which the metric coefficients and the OGCM governing equations are established

Are natural climate forcings able to counteract the projected anthropogenic global warming?

A two-dimensional global climate model is used to assess the climatic changes associated with the new IPCC SRES emissions scenarios and to determine which kind of changes in total solar irradiance and volcanic perturbations could mask the projected anthropogenic global warming associated to the SRES scenarios. Our results suggest that only extremely unlikely changes in total solar irradiance and/or volcanic eruptions would be able to overcome the simulated anthropogenic global warming over the century. Nevertheless, in the critical interval of the next two decades the externally-driven natural climate variability might possibly confuse the debate about temperature trends and impede detection of the anthropogenic climate change signal

ECOSONOS Emissions of CO₂, SO₂ and NO_x from ships: final report

The objective of this study is to quantify an estimate of ship’s aerial emissions in the Belgian part of the North Sea, including the 4 most important Belgian ports: Antwerp, Ghent, Ostend and Zeebrugge and this for the period from April 2003 to March 2004. This quantification gives an overview of ship’s aerial emission of CO2, SO2 and NOx and can be used as an input to the discussions on regulating shipping emissions in the framework of combating air pollution and climate change. First an overview is given of existing and upcoming international standards and reporting requirements; followed by the current emission inventories in use in Belgium. Next, a new method is used to estimate the emissions of shipping. The method classifies ships into 15 classes and 2 different calculation methods, depending on the best available data: for 11 types of merchant ships, dredgers and tugs in non-operational condition and fishery (emissions by the Belgian fishing fleet in the Belgian part of the North Sea) a bottom-up approach is applied, for dredgers and tugs in operational condition a top-down approach is used. For LNG vessels we have to take the specific engine characteristics into account. Further, we also make a distinction between at sea and in port emissions, because of different sailing operations (whether cruising, at berth, manoeuvring or at anchor). In the bottom-up approach, the engine loads are the most significant information and can be used to estimate the subsequent emissions, together with information on sailing times and emission factors. The top-down approach allows for a more simple calculation on the basis of fuel consumption and related emission factors. When adding the total at sea and in port emission estimates from both the bottom-up and top-down approach we have the total estimate of ship’s aerial emission in the Belgian part of the North Sea and the 4 most important ports. Unfortunately, a lack of data (due to a limited coverage of ship registration at the time) has not allowed to incorporate emissions from transit ships, passing the Belgian North Sea in the North bound Traffic Separation Scheme

A Christian view on Climate Change. The implications of climate change for lifestyles and EU policies. A report to the Bishops of COMECE

Climate change poses an increasing threat to the well-being of humanity both for present and future generations. In fact, it is increasingly understood to have become a question of survival for a large part of mankind. The scientific community is overwhelmingly convinced that ongoing climate change is caused primarily by the increase of man-made greenhouse gas emissions and by the over-consumption of natural resources as a result of the lifestyles of the industralised societies, the societal and economic systems underlying these lifestlyles and the increasing pressure this puts on people and resources in the developing world. This reports agrees that the issue goes beyond climate change: it is simply a visible symptom of the non-sustainability of our way of life. Meeting the challenge of climate change must therefore be seen in the context of sustainability in a just world offering an equal sense of well-being to peoples all over the world and over all the generations of mankind

Modelling of the climatic system and its response to human activities

Only mathematical models are able to predict the climate change that will be induced over the next decades by the increase of the atmospheric concentration in greenhouse gases. To produce such forecasts it is necessary to work out a model of the Earth's climate system encompassing, at least, the atmosphere, the World Ocean and the sea ice. Such a model is being developed at ASTR. The AGCM of the LMD has been installed at ASTR. This model is briefly described and the first results obtained at ASTR are presented. The sea ice model is of thermodynamic-dynamic type. It is shown that the thermodynamic part, when coupled to a simple ocean model, is giving realistic results. It is believed that an excellent representation of the sea ice cover will be obtained after completing the validation of the thermodynamic part. The free surface OGCM is briefly described. The model has been successfully tested in a robust diagnostic mode, which means that the main features of the oceanic general circulation are well represented. A first simulation without restoring terms was preformed, giving very encouraging results