A robust method to update local river inundation maps using global climate model output and weather typing based statistical downscaling

Versión aceptada de https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-020-02673-7[Abstract:] Global warming is changing the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation events. This requires updating local rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves and flood hazard maps according to the future climate scenarios. This is, however, far from straightforward, given our limited ability to model the effects of climate change on the temporal and spatial variability of rainfall at small scales. In this study, we develop a robust method to update local IDF relations for sub-daily rainfall extremes using Global Climate Model (GCM) data, and we apply it to a coastal town in NW Spain. First, the relationship between large-scale atmospheric circulation, described by means of Lamb Circulation Type classification (LCT), and rainfall events with potential for flood generation is analyzed. A broad ensemble set of GCM runs is used to identify frequency changes in LCTs, and to assess the occurrence of flood generating events in the future. In a parallel way, we use this Weather Type (WT) classification and climate-flood linkages to downscale rainfall from GCMs, and to determine the IDF curves for the future climate scenarios. A hydrological-hydraulic modeling chain is then used to quantify the changes in flood maps induced by the IDF changes. The results point to a future increase in rainfall intensity for all rainfall durations, which consequently results in an increased flood hazard in the urban area. While acknowledging the uncertainty in the GCM projections, the results show the need to update IDF standards and flood hazard maps to reflect potential changes in future extreme rainfall intensities.María Bermúdez acknowledges funding from EU’s Horizon 2020 Programme under Marie Skłodowska-Curie Grant Agreement 754446 and UGR Research and Knowledge Transfer Fund—Athenea3i. Els Van Uytven was funded by a doctoral grant from the Research Foundation – Flanders (F.W.O., grant number 11ZY418N).Bélgica. Research Foundation – Flanders; 11ZY418

The CORDEX.be initiative as a foundation for climate services in Belgium

The CORDEX.be project created the foundations for Belgian climate services by producing high-resolution Belgian climate information that (a) incorporates the expertise of the different Belgian climate modeling groups and that (b) is consistent with the outcomes of the international CORDEX ("COordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment") project. The key practical tasks for the project were the coordination of activities among different Belgian climate groups, fostering the links to specific international initiatives and the creation of a stakeholder dialogue. Scientifically, the CORDEX.be project contributed to the EURO-CORDEX project, created a small ensemble of High-Resolution (H-Res) future projections over Belgium at convection-permitting resolutions and coupled these to seven Local Impact Models. Several impact studies have been carried out. The project also addressed some aspects of climate change uncertainties. The interactions and feedback from the stakeholder dialogue led to different practical applications at the Belgian national level

Uncertainty in projected point precipitation extremes for hydrological impact analysis of climate change

Fund for Scientific Research - Flanders (FWO) PhD scholarshipstatus: publishe

Greenhouse gas scenario sensitivity and uncertainties in precipitation projections for central Belgium

Climate change impact assessment on meteorological variables involves large uncertainties as a result of incomplete knowledge on the future greenhouse gas concentrations and climate model physics, next to the inherent internal variability of the climate system. Given that the alteration in greenhouse gas concentrations is the driver for the change, one expects the impacts to be highly dependent on the considered greenhouse gas scenario (GHS). In this study, we denote this behavior as GHS sensitivity. Due to the climate model related uncertainties, this sensitivity is, at local scale, not always that strong as expected. This paper aims to study the GHS sensitivity and its contributing role to climate scenarios for a case study in Belgium. An ensemble of 160 CMIP5 climate model runs is considered and climate change signals are studied for precipitation accumulation, daily precipitation intensities and wet day frequencies. This was done for the different seasons of the year and the scenario periods 2011–2040, 2031–2060, 2051–2081 and 2071–2100. By means of variance decomposition, the total variance in the climate change signals was separated in the contribution of the differences in GHSs and the other model-related uncertainty sources. These contributions were found dependent on the variable and season. Following the time of emergence concept, the GHS uncertainty contribution is found dependent on the time horizon and increases over time. For the most distinct time horizon (2071–2100), the climate model uncertainty accounts for the largest uncertainty contribution. The GHS differences explain up to 18% of the total variance in the climate change signals. The results point further at the importance of the climate model ensemble design, specifically the ensemble size and the combination of climate models, whereupon climate scenarios are based.status: publishe

Climate Perturbation Tool - Manual

nrpages: 19status: publishe

Statistical methodology for on-site wind resource and power potential assessment under current and future climate conditions: a case study of Suriname

status: publishe

Primaire klimaateffecten in Provincie Antwerpen

status: publishe

How important is an ensemble of statistical downscaling methods in urban climate change impact studies?

status: publishe

Assessment of the potential implications of a 1.5 degrees C versus higher global temperature rise for the Afobaka hydropower scheme in Suriname

© 2018, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature. The long-term sustainability of proposed or existing hydropower schemes strongly depends on the availability of water resources. Under climate change, long-term water resource availability in the Caribbean is highly uncertain. This study presents an approach for assessing future climate impacts on regional hydropower potential premised on the use of hydrological models and projections from the latest generation of climate models. When the methodology is applied to the Afobaka hydropower scheme in Suriname, the results indicate significant changes in, both, water resources availability and hydropower potential with increasing global temperatures. A decrease of approximately 40% is projected by the end of the century for global temperature increase in the range of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. Under a “business as usual” greenhouse gas emissions pathway, which would lead to global temperatures significantly above 1.5 °C, the impact is more severe, with a projected decrease of up to 80% (65 MW) of the firm power capacity (80 MW) by the end of the century.status: publishe