Data-driven approach to machine condition prognosis using least square regression trees

Machine fault prognosis techniques have been considered profoundly in the recent time due to their profit for reducing unexpected faults or unscheduled maintenance. With those techniques, the working conditions of components, the trending of fault propagation, and the time-to-failure are forecasted precisely before they reach the failure thresholds. In this work, we propose an approach of Least Square Regression Tree (LSRT), which is an extension of the Classification and Regression Tree (CART), in association with one-step-ahead prediction of time-series forecasting technique to predict the future conditions of machines. In this technique, the number of available observations is firstly determined by using Cao’s method and LSRT is employed as prognosis system in the next step. The proposed approach is evaluated by real data of low methane compressor. Furthermore, the comparison between the predicted results of CART and LSRT are carried out to prove the accuracy. The predicted results show that LSRT offers a potential for machine condition prognosis

Korea, China and Japan: Their Trade with the World and Its Impact on New Asian Regionalism ASEAN+3

Success of recent developments in Asian economic regionalism and free trade agreements depends to some significant extent on the continuing role and importance of trade of these economies with themselves and also with the world's major trading blocs. The paper reviews especially the case of Korea, Japan and China's interest in new Asian economic regionalism and FTAs, surveys particularly its important trends in international trade in the past 35 years and discusses how these trends and patterns will affect the Asian 3's growth and provide the background for more effective implementation of ASEAN+3 or even ASEAN+5 or similar bilateral, pluri-lateral and multilateral regional economic integrations in the long term.

Recent Significant Advances in Estimating and Forecasting Theories and Economic Modelling: With Applications to Asian Investment Studies.

The paper presents the basics of a new and flexible approach to statistically modelling the activities of multi-sectoral economies (Tran Van Hoa, 1992) and applies it to study investment in five major East Asian countries (ie, China, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia and Thailand) during the period 1970-1993 using recent World Bank databases. The approach dominates the computable general equilibrium method in its data-consistent structure.ECONOMIC MODELS ; EVALUATION ; FORECASTS ; INVESTMENTS

Economic and Financial Crisis Management in Asia: A Critical Analysis

Recent financial and economic crisis in Asia and its management have produced dismal outcomes, economically, politically and socially, in many respects in several crisis economies. The paper focuses on a critical analysis of this crisis' diagnostics, prescriptions and outcomes, and discusses initiatives to avoid or better manage future and similar crises. The role played by increasing globalisation in economic crisis management at the country level is also assessed. The recent emergence of new Asian regionalisms such as the ASEAN+3 is argued as a promising initiative to overcome some external problems encountered in recent years and to effectively promote trade, investment, development and growth in the region.Financial and economic crisis, Asia, globalisation, crisis management

New Asian Regionalism: Evidence of ASEAN+3 Free Trade Agreement From Extended Gravity Theory and New Modelling Approach

The emergence of new Asian regionalisms such as ASEAN+3 (China, Korea and Japan) and the proposed ASEAN+5 (ASEAN+3 plus Australia and New Zealand) and other bilateral, plurilateral and multilateral free trade agreements in recent years requires research into these important developments and their underlying fundamental trade-growth causation. The paper extends the gravity theory to time-series data and applies a new flexible modelling approach to construct a simultaneous-equation model of trade and growth for the ASEAN and the East Asia 3. Using data from the World Bank national accounts and CHELEM regional and international trade over the period 1968-2000, the paper then estimates the model by both standard (OLS and 2SLS) and improved estimation methods to provide superior MSE impact estimates. Implications of the findings for ASEAN+3’s economic integration, trade policy and prospects for trade and welfare improvement for this FTA will also be discussed.New Asian Regionalism, Free Trade Agreement, Economic Integration, ASEAN, ASEAN+3, Trade and Growth, Gravity Theory, Causality, Economic Modelling, Estimation Methods, Economic and Trade Policy