Optimal Transport in the Face of Noisy Data

Optimal transport distances are popular and theoretically well understood in the context of data-driven prediction. A flurry of recent work has popularized these distances for data-driven decision-making as well although their merits in this context are far less well understood. This in contrast to the more classical entropic distances which are known to enjoy optimal statistical properties. This begs the question when, if ever, optimal transport distances enjoy similar statistical guarantees. Optimal transport methods are shown here to enjoy optimal statistical guarantees for decision problems faced with noisy data

Optimal Learning for Structured Bandits

We study structured multi-armed bandits, which is the problem of online decision-making under uncertainty in the presence of structural information. In this problem, the decision-maker needs to discover the best course of action despite observing only uncertain rewards over time. The decision-maker is aware of certain structural information regarding the reward distributions and would like to minimize their regret by exploiting this information, where the regret is its performance difference against a benchmark policy that knows the best action ahead of time. In the absence of structural information, the classical upper confidence bound (UCB) and Thomson sampling algorithms are well known to suffer only minimal regret. As recently pointed out, neither algorithms are, however, capable of exploiting structural information that is commonly available in practice. We propose a novel learning algorithm that we call DUSA whose worst-case regret matches the information-theoretic regret lower bound up to a constant factor and can handle a wide range of structural information. Our algorithm DUSA solves a dual counterpart of the regret lower bound at the empirical reward distribution and follows its suggested play. Our proposed algorithm is the first computationally viable learning policy for structured bandit problems that has asymptotic minimal regret

A General Framework for Optimal Data-Driven Optimization

We propose a statistically optimal approach to construct data-driven decisions for stochastic optimization problems. Fundamentally, a data-driven decision is simply a function that maps the available training data to a feasible action. It can always be expressed as the minimizer of a surrogate optimization model constructed from the data. The quality of a data-driven decision is measured by its out-of-sample risk. An additional quality measure is its out-of-sample disappointment, which we define as the probability that the out-of-sample risk exceeds the optimal value of the surrogate optimization model. An ideal data-driven decision should minimize the out-of-sample risk simultaneously with respect to every conceivable probability measure as the true measure is unkown. Unfortunately, such ideal data-driven decisions are generally unavailable. This prompts us to seek data-driven decisions that minimize the out-of-sample risk subject to an upper bound on the out-of-sample disappointment. We prove that such Pareto-dominant data-driven decisions exist under conditions that allow for interesting applications: the unknown data-generating probability measure must belong to a parametric ambiguity set, and the corresponding parameters must admit a sufficient statistic that satisfies a large deviation principle. We can further prove that the surrogate optimization model must be a distributionally robust optimization problem constructed from the sufficient statistic and the rate function of its large deviation principle. Hence the optimal method for mapping data to decisions is to solve a distributionally robust optimization model. Maybe surprisingly, this result holds even when the training data is non-i.i.d. Our analysis reveals how the structural properties of the data-generating stochastic process impact the shape of the ambiguity set underlying the optimal distributionally robust model.Comment: 52 page

Exterior-point Optimization for Nonconvex Learning

In this paper we present the nonconvex exterior-point optimization solver (NExOS) -- a novel first-order algorithm tailored to constrained nonconvex learning problems. We consider the problem of minimizing a convex function over nonconvex constraints, where the projection onto the constraint set is single-valued around local minima. A wide range of nonconvex learning problems have this structure including (but not limited to) sparse and low-rank optimization problems. By exploiting the underlying geometry of the constraint set, NExOS finds a locally optimal point by solving a sequence of penalized problems with strictly decreasing penalty parameters. NExOS solves each penalized problem by applying a first-order algorithm, which converges linearly to a local minimum of the corresponding penalized formulation under regularity conditions. Furthermore, the local minima of the penalized problems converge to a local minimum of the original problem as the penalty parameter goes to zero. We implement NExOS in the open-source Julia package NExOS.jl, which has been extensively tested on many instances from a wide variety of learning problems. We demonstrate that our algorithm, in spite of being general purpose, outperforms specialized methods on several examples of well-known nonconvex learning problems involving sparse and low-rank optimization. For sparse regression problems, NExOS finds locally optimal solutions which dominate glmnet in terms of support recovery, yet its training loss is smaller by an order of magnitude. For low-rank optimization with real-world data, NExOS recovers solutions with 3 fold training loss reduction, but with a proportion of explained variance that is 2 times better compared to the nuclear norm heuristic.Comment: 40 pages, 6 figure

Energy-optimal Timetable Design for Sustainable Metro Railway Networks

We present our collaboration with Thales Canada Inc, the largest provider of communication-based train control (CBTC) systems worldwide. We study the problem of designing energy-optimal timetables in metro railway networks to minimize the effective energy consumption of the network, which corresponds to simultaneously minimizing total energy consumed by all the trains and maximizing the transfer of regenerative braking energy from suitable braking trains to accelerating trains. We propose a novel data-driven linear programming model that minimizes the total effective energy consumption in a metro railway network, capable of computing the optimal timetable in real-time, even for some of the largest CBTC systems in the world. In contrast with existing works, which are either NP-hard or involve multiple stages requiring extensive simulation, our model is a single linear programming model capable of computing the energy-optimal timetable subject to the constraints present in the railway network. Furthermore, our model can predict the total energy consumption of the network without requiring time-consuming simulations, making it suitable for widespread use in managerial settings. We apply our model to Shanghai Railway Network's Metro Line 8 -- one of the largest and busiest railway services in the world -- and empirically demonstrate that our model computes energy-optimal timetables for thousands of active trains spanning an entire service period of one day in real-time (solution time less than one second on a standard desktop), achieving energy savings between approximately 20.93% and 28.68%. Given the compelling advantages, our model is in the process of being integrated into Thales Canada Inc's industrial timetable compiler.Comment: 28 pages, 8 figures, 2 table

Generalized Gauss Inequalities via Semidefinite Programming

A sharp upper bound on the probability of a random vector falling outside a polytope, based solely on the first and second moments of its distribution, can be computed efficiently using semidefinite programming. However, this Chebyshev-type bound tends to be overly conservative since it is determined by a discrete worst-case distribution. In this paper we obtain a less pessimistic Gauss-type bound by imposing the additional requirement that the random vector's distribution must be unimodal. We prove that this generalized Gauss bound still admits an exact and tractable semidefinite representation. Moreover, we demonstrate that both the Chebyshev and Gauss bounds can be obtained within a unified framework using a generalized notion of unimodality. We also offer new perspectives on the computational solution of generalized moment problems, since we use concepts from Choquet theory instead of traditional duality arguments to derive semidefinite representations for worst-case probability bounds

Branch-and-Bound Performance Estimation Programming: A Unified Methodology for Constructing Optimal Optimization Methods

We present the Branch-and-Bound Performance Estimation Programming (BnB-PEP), a unified methodology for constructing optimal first-order methods for convex and nonconvex optimization. BnB-PEP poses the problem of finding the optimal optimization method as a nonconvex but practically tractable quadratically constrained quadratic optimization problem and solves it to certifiable global optimality using a customized branch-and-bound algorithm. By directly confronting the nonconvexity, BnB-PEP offers significantly more flexibility and removes the many limitations of the prior methodologies. Our customized branch-and-bound algorithm, through exploiting specific problem structures, outperforms the latest off-the-shelf implementations by orders of magnitude, accelerating the solution time from hours to seconds and weeks to minutes. We apply BnB-PEP to several setups for which the prior methodologies do not apply and obtain methods with bounds that improve upon prior state-of-the-art results. Finally, we use the BnB-PEP methodology to find proofs with potential function structures, thereby systematically generating analytical convergence proofs.Comment: 65 pages, 7 figures, 17 table