An Empirical Method of Detecting Time-Dependent Confounding: An Observational Study of Next Day Delirium in a Medical ICU

Longitudinal research on older persons in the medical intensive care unit (MICU) is often complicated by the time-dependent confounding of concurrently administered interventions such as medications and intubation. Such temporal confounding can bias the respective longitudinal associations between concurrently administered treatments and a longitudinal outcome such as delirium. Although marginal structural models address time-dependent confounding, their application is non-trivial and preferably justified by empirical evidence. Using data from a longitudinal study of older persons in the MICU, we constructed a plausibility score from 0 - 10 where higher values indicate higher plausibility of time-dependent confounding of the association between a time-varying explanatory variable and an outcome. Based on longitudinal plots, measures of correlation, and longitudinal regression, the plausibility scores were compared to the differences in estimates obtained with non-weighted and marginal structural models of next day delirium. The plausibility scores of the three possible pairings of daily doses of fentanyl, haloperidol, and intubation indicated the following: low plausibility for haloperidol and intubation, moderate plausibility for fentanyl and haloperidol, and high plausibility for fentanyl and intubation. Comparing multivariable models of next day delirium with and without adjustment for time-dependent confounding, only intubation's association changed substantively. In our observational study of older persons in the MICU, the plausibility scores were generally reflective of the observed differences between coefficients estimated from non-weighted and marginal structural models

Ethnic differences in respiratory impairment

Objective Spirometric Z scores by lambda-mu-sigma (LMS) rigorously account for age-related changes in lung function. Recently, the Global Lung Function Initiative (GLI) expanded LMS spirometric Z scores to multiple ethnicities. Hence, in aging populations, the GLI provides an opportunity to rigorously evaluate ethnic differences in respiratory impairment, including airflow limitation and restrictive pattern. Methods Using data from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, including participants aged 40-80, we evaluated ethnic differences in GLI-defined respiratory impairment, including prevalence and associations with mortality and respiratory symptoms. Results Among 3506 white Americans, 1860 African Americans and 1749 Mexican Americans, the prevalence of airflow limitation was 15.1% (13.9% to 16.4%), 12.4% (10.7% to 14.0%) and 8.2% (6.7% to 9.8%), and restrictive pattern was 5.6% (4.6% to 6.5%), 8.0% 6.9% to 9.0%) and 5.7% (4.5% to 6.9%), respectively. Airflow limitation was associated with mortality in white Americans, African Americans and Mexican Americans - adjusted HR (aHR) 1.66 (1.23 to 2.25), 1.60 (1.09 to 2.36) and 1.80 (1.17 to 2.76), respectively, but associated with respiratory symptoms only in white Americans - adjusted OR (aOR) 2.15 (1.70 to 2.73). Restrictive pattern was associated with mortality but only in white Americans and African Americans - aHR 2.56 (1.84 to 3.55) and 3.23 (2.06 to 5.05), and associated with respiratory symptoms but only in white Americans and Mexican Americans-aOR 2.16 (1.51 to 3.07) and .12 (1.45 to 3.08), respectively. Conclusions In an aging population, we found ethnic differences in GLI-defined respiratory impairment. In particular, African Americans had high rates of respiratory impairment that were associated with mortality but not respiratory symptoms