Controlling long-term SARS-CoV-2 infections can slow viral evolution and reduce the risk of treatment failure.

The rapid emergence and expansion of novel SARS-CoV-2 variants threatens our ability to achieve herd immunity for COVID-19. These novel SARS-CoV-2 variants often harbor multiple point mutations, conferring one or more evolutionarily advantageous traits, such as increased transmissibility, immune evasion and longer infection duration. In a number of cases, variant emergence has been linked to long-term infections in individuals who were either immunocompromised or treated with convalescent plasma. In this paper, we used a stochastic evolutionary modeling framework to explore the emergence of fitter variants of SARS-CoV-2 during long-term infections. We found that increased viral load and infection duration favor emergence of such variants. While the overall probability of emergence and subsequent transmission from any given infection is low, on a population level these events occur fairly frequently. Targeting these low-probability stochastic events that lead to the establishment of novel advantageous viral variants might allow us to slow the rate at which they emerge in the patient population, and prevent them from spreading deterministically due to natural selection. Our work thus suggests practical ways to achieve control of long-term SARS-CoV-2 infections, which will be critical for slowing the rate of viral evolution.DGE-1762114 - National Science FoundationPublished versio

Rapid relaxation of pandemic restrictions after vaccine rollout favors growth of SARS-CoV-2 variants: a model-based analysis

The development and deployment of several SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in a little over a year is an unprecedented achievement of modern medicine. The high levels of efficacy against transmission for some of these vaccines makes it feasible to use them to suppress SARS-CoV-2 altogether in regions with high vaccine acceptance. However, viral variants with reduced susceptibility to vaccinal and natural immunity threaten the utility of vaccines, particularly in scenarios where a return to pre-pandemic conditions occurs before the suppression of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. In this work we model the situation in the United States in May-June 2021, to demonstrate how pre-existing variants of SARS-CoV-2 may cause a rebound wave of COVID-19 in a matter of months under a certain set of conditions. A high burden of morbidity (and likely mortality) remains possible, even if the vaccines are partially effective against new variants and widely accepted. Our modeling suggests that variants that are already present within the population may be capable of quickly defeating the vaccines as a public health intervention, a serious potential limitation for strategies that emphasize rapid reopening before achieving control of SARS-CoV-2.Published versio

Microfluidic squeezing for intracellular antigen loading in polyclonal B-cells as cellular vaccines

B-cells are promising candidate autologous antigen-presenting cells (APCs) to prime antigen-specific T-cells both in vitro and in vivo. However to date, a significant barrier to utilizing B-cells as APCs is their low capacity for non-specific antigen uptake compared to “professional” APCs such as dendritic cells. Here we utilize a microfluidic device that employs many parallel channels to pass single cells through narrow constrictions in high throughput. This microscale “cell squeezing” process creates transient pores in the plasma membrane, enabling intracellular delivery of whole proteins from the surrounding medium into B-cells via mechano-poration. We demonstrate that both resting and activated B-cells process and present antigens delivered via mechano-poration exclusively to antigen-specific CD8[superscript +]T-cells, and not CD4[superscript +]T-cells. Squeezed B-cells primed and expanded large numbers of effector CD8[superscript +]T-cells in vitro that produced effector cytokines critical to cytolytic function, including granzyme B and interferon-γ. Finally, antigen-loaded B-cells were also able to prime antigen-specific CD8[superscript +]T-cells in vivo when adoptively transferred into mice. Altogether, these data demonstrate crucial proof-of-concept for mechano-poration as an enabling technology for B-cell antigen loading, priming of antigen-specific CD8[superscript +]T-cells, and decoupling of antigen uptake from B-cell activation.Kathy and Curt Marble Cancer Research Fund (Frontier Research Programme Grant)National Cancer Institute (U.S.) (Cancer Center Support (Core) Grant P30-CA14051)National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (Ruth L. Kirschstein National Research Service Award 1F32CA180586

Endemicity is not a victory: the unmitigated downside risks of widespread SARS-CoV-2 transmission

The strategy of relying solely on current SARS-CoV-2 vaccines to halt SARS-CoV-2 transmission has proven infeasible. In response, many public-health authorities have advocated for using vaccines to limit mortality while permitting unchecked SARS-CoV-2 spread (“learning to live with the disease”). The feasibility of this strategy critically depends on the infection fatality rate (IFR) of SARS-CoV-2. An expectation exists that the IFR will decrease due to selection against virulence. In this work, we perform a viral fitness estimation to examine the basis for this expectation. Our findings suggest large increases in virulence for SARS-CoV-2 would result in minimal loss of transmissibility, implying that the IFR may vary freely under neutral evolutionary drift. We use an SEIRS model framework to examine the effect of hypothetical changes in the IFR on steady-state death tolls under COVID-19 endemicity. Our modeling suggests that endemic SARS-CoV-2 implies vast transmission resulting in yearly US COVID-19 death tolls numbering in the hundreds of thousands under many plausible scenarios, with even modest increases in the IFR leading to unsustainable mortality burdens. Our findings highlight the importance of enacting a concerted strategy and continued development of biomedical interventions to suppress SARS-CoV-2 transmission and slow its evolution.https://www.mdpi.com/2673-8112/2/12/121Published versio

No magic bullet: limiting in-school transmission in the face of variable SARS-CoV-2 viral loads

In the face of a long-running pandemic, understanding the drivers of ongoing SARS-CoV-2 transmission is crucial for the rational management of COVID-19 disease burden. Keeping schools open has emerged as a vital societal imperative during the pandemic, but in-school transmission of SARS-CoV-2 can contribute to further prolonging the pandemic. In this context, the role of schools in driving SARS-CoV-2 transmission acquires critical importance. Here we model in-school transmission from first principles to investigate the effectiveness of layered mitigation strategies on limiting in-school spread. We examined the effect of masks and air quality (ventilation, filtration and ionizers) on steady-state viral load in classrooms, as well as on the number of particles inhaled by an uninfected person. The effectiveness of these measures in limiting viral transmission was assessed for variants with different levels of mean viral load (ancestral, Delta, Omicron). Our results suggest that a layered mitigation strategy can be used effectively to limit in-school transmission, with certain limitations. First, poorly designed strategies (insufficient ventilation, no masks, staying open under high levels of community transmission) will permit in-school spread even if some level of mitigation is present. Second, for viral variants that are sufficiently contagious, it may be difficult to construct any set of interventions capable of blocking transmission once an infected individual is present, underscoring the importance of other measures. Our findings provide practical recommendations; in particular, the use of a layered mitigation strategy that is designed to limit transmission, with other measures such as frequent surveillance testing and smaller class sizes (such as by offering remote schooling options to those who prefer it) as needed.National Science Foundationhttps://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2022.941773/fullPublished versio

Structure-based programming of lymph-node targeting in molecular vaccines

In cancer patients, visual identification of sentinel lymph nodes (LNs) is achieved by the injection of dyes that bind avidly to endogenous albumin, targeting these compounds to LNs, where they are efficiently filtered by resident phagocytes1, 2. Here we translate this ‘albumin hitchhiking’ approach to molecular vaccines, through the synthesis of amphiphiles (amph-vaccines) comprising an antigen or adjuvant cargo linked to a lipophilic albumin-binding tail by a solubility-promoting polar polymer chain. Administration of structurally optimized CpG-DNA/peptide amph-vaccines in mice resulted in marked increases in LN accumulation and decreased systemic dissemination relative to their parent compounds, leading to 30-fold increases in T-cell priming and enhanced anti-tumour efficacy while greatly reducing systemic toxicity. Amph-vaccines provide a simple, broadly applicable strategy to simultaneously increase the potency and safety of subunit vaccines.David H. Koch Institute for Integrative Cancer Research at MIT (Koch Institute Support (core) Grant P30-CA14051)National Cancer Institute (U.S.)National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (grant AI091693)National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (grant AI104715)National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (AI095109)United States. Dept. of Defense (contract W911NF-13-D-0001)United States. Dept. of Defense (contract W911NF-07-D-0004)Ragon Institute of MGH, MIT, and Harvar

Endemicity Is Not a Victory: The Unmitigated Downside Risks of Widespread SARS-CoV-2 Transmission

The strategy of relying solely on current SARS-CoV-2 vaccines to halt SARS-CoV-2 transmission has proven infeasible. In response, many public-health authorities have advocated for using vaccines to limit mortality while permitting unchecked SARS-CoV-2 spread (“learning to live with the disease”). The feasibility of this strategy critically depends on the infection fatality rate (IFR) of SARS-CoV-2. An expectation exists that the IFR will decrease due to selection against virulence. In this work, we perform a viral fitness estimation to examine the basis for this expectation. Our findings suggest large increases in virulence for SARS-CoV-2 would result in minimal loss of transmissibility, implying that the IFR may vary freely under neutral evolutionary drift. We use an SEIRS model framework to examine the effect of hypothetical changes in the IFR on steady-state death tolls under COVID-19 endemicity. Our modeling suggests that endemic SARS-CoV-2 implies vast transmission resulting in yearly US COVID-19 death tolls numbering in the hundreds of thousands under many plausible scenarios, with even modest increases in the IFR leading to unsustainable mortality burdens. Our findings highlight the importance of enacting a concerted strategy and continued development of biomedical interventions to suppress SARS-CoV-2 transmission and slow its evolution