Analyzing the Performance of GPS Data for Earthquake Prediction

The results of earthquake prediction largely depend on the quality of data and the methods of their joint processing. At present, for a number of regions, it is possible, in addition to data from earthquake catalogs, to use space geodesy data obtained with the help of GPS. The purpose of our study is to evaluate the efficiency of using the time series of displacements of the Earth’s surface according to GPS data for the systematic prediction of earthquakes. The criterion of efficiency is the probability of successful prediction of an earthquake with a limited size of the alarm zone. We use a machine learning method, namely the method of the minimum area of alarm, to predict earthquakes with a magnitude greater than 6.0 and a hypocenter depth of up to 60 km, which occurred from 2016 to 2020 in Japan, and earthquakes with a magnitude greater than 5.5. and a hypocenter depth of up to 60 km, which happened from 2013 to 2020 in California. For each region, we compare the following results: random forecast of earthquakes, forecast obtained with the field of spatial density of earthquake epicenters, forecast obtained with spatio-temporal fields based on GPS data, based on seismological data, and based on combined GPS data and seismological data. The results confirm the effectiveness of using GPS data for the systematic prediction of earthquakes

Monotonic Functions Method and Its Application to Staging of Patients with Prostate Cancer According to Pretreatment Data

Prostate cancer is the second most frequent malignancy (after lung cancer). Preoperative staging of PCa is the basis for the selection of adequate treatment tactics. In particular, an urgent problem is the classification of indolent and aggressive forms of PCa in patients with the initial stages of the tumor process. To solve this problem, we propose to use a new binary classification machine-learning method. The proposed method of monotonic functions uses a model in which the disease’s form is determined by the severity of the patient’s condition. It is assumed that the patient’s condition is the easier, the less the deviation of the indicators from the normal values inherent in healthy people. This assumption means that the severity (form) of the disease can be represented by monotonic functions from the values of the deviation of the patient’s indicators beyond the normal range. The method is used to solve the problem of classifying patients with indolent and aggressive forms of prostate cancer according to pretreatment data. The learning algorithm is nonparametric. At the same time, it allows an explanation of the classification results in the form of a logical function. To do this, you should indicate to the algorithm either the threshold value of the probability of successful classification of patients with an indolent form of PCa, or the threshold value of the probability of misclassification of patients with an aggressive form of PCa disease. The examples of logical rules given in the article show that they are quite simple and can be easily interpreted in terms of preoperative indicators of the form of the disease