A methodology for probabilistic assessment of solar thermal power plants yield

AIP Conference Proceedings 1850, 140006-1–140006-7A detailed knowledge of the solar resource is a critical point to perform an economic feasibility analysis of Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) plants. This knowledge must include its magnitude (how much solar energy is available at an area of interest over a long time period), and its variability over time. In particular, DNI inter-annual variations may be large, increasing the return of investment risk in CSP plant projects. This risk is typically evaluated by means of the simulation of the energy delivered by the CSP plant during years with low solar irradiation, which are typically characterized by annual solar radiation datasets with high probability of exceedance of their annual DNI values. In this context, this paper proposes the use meteorological years representative of a given probability of exceedance of annual DNI in order to realistically assess the inter-annual variability of energy yields. The performance of this approach is evaluated in the location of Burns station (University of Oregon Solar Radiation Monitoring Laboratory), where a 34- year (from 1980 to 2013) measured data set of solar irradiance and temperature is available

A novel procedure for generating solar irradiance TSYs

AIP Conference Proceeding 1850, 140015-1–140015-8Typical Solar Years (TSYs) are key parameters for the solar energy industry. In particular, TSYs are mainly used for the design and bankability analysis of solar projects. In essence, a TSY intends to describe the expected longterm behavior of the solar resource (direct and/or global irradiance) into a condensed period of one year at the specific location of interest. A TSY differs from a conventional Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) by its absence of meteorological variables other than solar radiation. Concerning the probability of exceedance (Pe) needed for bankability, various scenarios are commonly used, with Pe90, Pe95 or even Pe99 being most usually required as unfavorable scenarios, along with the most widely used median scenario (Pe50). There is no consensus in the scientific community regarding the methodology for generating TSYs for any Pe scenario. Furthermore, the application of two different construction methods to the same original dataset could produce differing TSYs. Within this framework, a group of experts has been established by the Spanish Association for Standardization and Certification (AENOR) in order to propose a method that can be standardized. The method developed by this working group, referred to as the EVA method, is presented in this contribution. Its evaluation shows that it provides reasonable results for the two main irradiance components (direct and global), with low errors in the annual estimations for any given Pe. The EVA method also preserves the long-term statistics when the computed TSYs for a specific Pe are expanded from the monthly basis used in the generation of the TSY to higher time resolutions, such as 1 hour, which are necessary for the precise energy simulation of solar systems