Which sectors make the poor countries so unproductive?

Standard growth accounting exercises find large cross-country differences in aggregate TFP. Here we ask whether specific sectors are driving these differences, and, if this is the case, which these problem sectors are. We argue that to answer these questions we need to consider four sectors. In contrast, the literature typically considers only two sectors. Our four sectors produce services (nontradable consumption), consumption goods (tradable consumption), construction (nontradable investment), and machinery and equipment (tradable investment). Interacting the data from the 1996 benchmark study of the Penn World Tables with economic theory, we find that the TFP differences across countries are much larger in the two tradable sectors than in the two nontradable sectors. This is consistent with the Balassa--Samuelson hypothesis. We also find that within the tradable sectors the TFP differences are much larger in machinery and equipment than in consumption goods. We illustrate the usefulness of our findings by accounting for the conflicting results of the existing two--sector analyses and by developing criteria for a successful theory of aggregate TFP

Measuring Factor Income Shares at the Sectoral Level

Many applications in economics use multi-sector versions of the growth model. In this paper, we measure the income shares of capital and labor at the sectoral level for the U.S. economy. We also decompose the capital shares into the income shares of land, structures, and equipment. We find that the capital shares differ across sectors. For example, the capital share of agriculture is more than two times that of construction and more than 50% larger than that of the aggregate economy. Moreover, agriculture has by far the largest land share, which mostly explains why it has the largest capital share. Our numbers can directly be used to calibrate standard multi-sector models. Alternatively, if one wants to abstract from differences in sector capital shares, our numbers can be used to establish that this is not crucial for the results.input-output tables; industry-by-commodity total requirement matrix; sector factor shares

Independence and heterogeneity in games of incomplete information

This paper provides a sufficient condition for existence and uniqueness of equilibrium, which is in monotone pure strategies, in games of incomplete information. First, we show that if each player’s incremental ex post payoff is uniformly increasing in its own action and type, and its type is sufficiently uninformative of the types of its opponents (independence), then its expected payoff satisfies a strict single crossing property in its own action and type, for any strategy profile played by its opponents. This ensures that a player’s best response to any strategy profile is a monotone pure strategy. Secondly, we show that if, in addition, there is sufficient heterogeneity of the conditional density of types, then the best response correspondence is a contraction mapping. This ensures equilibrium existence and uniqueness. In contrast to existing results, our uniqueness result does not rely on strategic complementarities; this allows for a wider range of applications. <br><br> Keywords; incomplete information, heterogeneity, existence, unique pure strategy equilibrium <br><br> JEL classification: C72; D82

Subsidies, Soft Budget Constraints and Financial Market Imperfections

In this paper we analyze the interaction between subsidies, soft budget con- straints and financial market imperfections in a simple model of occupational choice. The basic message is that the eect of soft budget constraints has to be analyzed jointly with other possible distortions that are affecting the economy. In particu- lar in environments where there are severe forms of financial market imperfections, subsidies and soft budget constraints can ease those imperfections and reduce credit rationing problems. The "positive" effect of soft budget constraints depends also upon the degree of institutional failure of the economy.

Determinacy with Capital Adjustment - Costs and Sector-Specific Externalities

This paper explores the stability properties of the steady state in the standard two-sector real business cycle model with a sector-specific externality in the capital-producing sector. When the steady state is stable then equilibrium is indeterminate and stable sunspots are possible. We find that capital adjustment costs of any size preclude stable sunspots for every empirically plausible specification of the model parameters. More specifically, we show that when capital adjustment costs of any size are considered, a necessary condition for the existence of stable sunspots is an upward- sloping labor demand curve in the capital-producing sector, which in turn requires an implausibly strong externality. This result contrasts sharply with the standard result that when we abstract from capital adjustment costs, stable sunspots occur in the two-sector model for a wide range of plausible parameter values.capital adjustment costs, determinacy, indeterminacy, sector-specific externality, sunspots

Occupational Choice, Financial Market Imperfections and Development

We develop a simple model of occupational choice under financial market im- perfections, in the presence of technological convexities. The aim is to analyze the quantitative effect of these imperfections on the level of income. We find that although their effect is relatively large, financial market imperfections alone are not able to explain the observed cross country difference in income. However, when interacted with the issue of mobility, those imperfections become much more relevant, to the point of pushing the economy into a development trap.

Determinacy Through Intertemporal Capital Adjustment Costs

It is well known that if mild sector–specific externalities are considered, then the steady state of the standard two-sector real business cycle model can become locally indeterminate and endogenous business cycles can arise. We show that this result is not robust to the introduction of standard intertemporal capital adjustment costs, which may accrue when total capital is adjusted or when each sector’s capital is adjusted. We find for both forms of adjustment costs that the steady state is determinate for all empirically plausible parameter values. We also find that determinacy occurs for a much larger range of parameter values when adjusting each sector’s capital is costly.capital adjustment costs; determinacy; local indeterminacy; local stability; sector-specific externality

Independence, Heterogeneity and Uniqueness in Interaction Games

This paper shows that incomplete information and sufficient heterogeneity of players can ensure uniqueness in interaction games. In contrast to recent work on uniqueness in interaction games, we do not require strategic complementarity. There are two parts to the argument. First, if a player’s signal is sufficiently uninformative of the signals of its opponents (in the sense of the Fisher information of the signal), then the player’s best response to any strategy profile of its opponents is non-decreasing in its signal. Secondly, a contraction mapping argument shows that sufficient heterogeneity ensures that equilibrium is unique.Co-ordination, Interaction games, Heterogeneity, Unique equilibrium

Neoclassical Growth Model with Externalities

This paper explores the local stability properties of the steady state in the twosector neoclassical growth model with sector–specific externalities. We show analytically that capital adjustment costs of any size preclude local indeterminacy nearby the steady state for every empirically plausible specification of the model parameters. More specifically, we show that when capital adjustment costs of any size are considered, a necessary condition for local indeterminacy is an upward-sloping labor demand curve in the capital-producing sector, which in turn requires an implausibly strong externality. We show numerically that capital adjustment costs of plausible size imply determinacy nearby the steady state for empirically plausible specifications of the other model parameters. These findings contrast sharply with the previous finding that local indeterminacy occurs in the two-sector model for a wide range of plausible parameter values when capital adjustment costs are abstracted from.capital adjustment costs; determinacy; externality; local indeterminacy; stability.

Which Sectors Make the Poor Countries so Unproductive?

Standard growth accounting exercises find large cross-country differences in aggregate TFP. Here we ask whether specific sectors are driving these differences, and, if this is the case, which these problem sectors are. We argue that to answer these questions we need to consider four sectors. In contrast, the literature typically considers only two sectors. Our four sectors produce services (nontradable consumption), consumption goods (tradable consumption), construction (nontradable investment), and machinery and equipment (tradable investment). Interacting the data from the 1996 benchmark study of the Penn World Tables with economic theory, we find that the TFP differences across countries are much larger in the two tradable sectors than in the two nontradable sectors. This is consistent with the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis. We also find that within the tradable sectors the TFP differences are much larger in machinery and equipment than in consumption goods. We illustrate the usefulness of our findings by accounting for the conflicting results of the existing two-sector analyses and by developing criteria for a successful theory of aggregate TFP.development accounting; sector TFPs; relative prices