Combining policy analyses, exploratory scenarios, and integrated modelling to assess land use policy options

Scenario-based approaches provide decision makers with accessible storylines of potential future changes. The parameterisation of such storylines as input variables for integrated assessment models allows using models as a test bed for assessing the effects of alternative land use policy options in different scenarios. However, the potential of this kind of policy-screening analysis can be further improved by assessing the institutional compatibility of the policy options under review. The aim of this paper is to explore the added value of combining institutions-oriented policy analyses with scenario-modelling approaches for improved assessments of EU land use policy options. We describe an expert-based, stepwise process to combine four scenario storylines and two integrated assessment model approaches (CLIMSAVE & IMAGE-GLOBIO) with a procedure for institutional compatibility assessment. Among the subsidies we assessed were those for technology-driven intensification of agricultural production, which would contribute to decreasing demand for cropland across a range of scenarios. In regionalised policy designs, they also contribute to ecological effectiveness, and higher costs of governing. Subsidies to promote biomass production can have negative effects on ecosystems including land conversion, conversion of grassland into cropland as well as conversion of natural forests into managed forests. These effects can to some extent be mitigated by careful policy design which considers the institutional context and features cross-sectoral coordination. An integrated Ecosystem Services Framework policy could accommodate regionalised policy designs and cross-sectoral coordination, however, it can operate only under specific circumstances and needs particular efforts. Rural development approaches are another alternative which feature expansion of cropland by means of a large-scale, bottom-up transformation based on voluntary changes in behaviour, flexibility, participation, and local and regional collaboration. Apart from a vast number of interdisciplinary lessons learned, we also gained insights from the science-policy interface. A weak EU appeared as a plausible scenario from a scientific perspective, given the current political environment. However, it appreaded to be unacceptable at EU level policy making. We decided to maintain scientific independence and looked at policy options also in the context of a weak EU yielding environmentally beneficial opportunities for regional decision making at the expense of relevance of our scenarios to EU level policy makers

New EU-scale environmental scenarios until 2050 – scenario process and initial scenario applications

Understanding uncertainties and risks can be considered to be the main motivation behind environmental scenario studies to assess potential economic, environmental, social or technical developments and their expected consequences for society and environment. The scenario study presented in this paper was designed to contribute to the question of how natural capital and ecosystem services may evolve in Europe under different socio-environmental conditions. The study was conducted as part of OpenNESS, an on-going EU FP7 research project. We present the iterative participatory scenario process, the storylines and drivers, examples for regional applications, as well as initial feedback from stakeholders. In a participatory iterative approach four scenarios were developed for the period to 2050, involving regional and EU-level users and stakeholders. Subsequently, scenarios were successfully contextualised and applied in regional place-based studies under widely differing socio-environmental conditions. Regional teams used different approaches to adapt storylines and drivers to the regional contexts. In an internal evaluation process among regional stakeholders some participants expressed concerns about the scenario method. Suggestions are made how to overcome these limitations. However, most participants approved the scenario method, especially in terms of provoking discussions, and confirmed the usefulness and applicability of the approach

Litter Decomposition as an Indicator of Stream Ecosystem Functioning at Local-to-Continental Scales

RivFunction is a pan-European initiative that started in 2002 and was aimed at esta- blishing a novel functional-based approach to assessing the ecological status of rivers. Litter decomposition was chosen as the focal process because it plays a central role in stream ecosystems and is easy to study in the field. Impacts of two stressors that occur across the continent, nutrient pollution and modified riparian vegetation, were exam- ined at >200 paired sites in nine European ecoregions. In response to the former, decomposition was dramatically slowed at both extremes of a 1000-fold nutrient gra- dient, indicating nutrient limitation in unpolluted sites, highly variable responses across Europe in moderately impacted streams, and inhibition via associated toxic and addi- tional stressors in highly polluted streams. Riparian forest modification by clear cutting or replacement of natural vegetation by plantations (e.g. conifers, eucalyptus) or pasture produced similarly complex responses. Clear effects caused by specific riparian distur- bances were observed in regionally focused studies, but general trends across different types of riparian modifications were not apparent, in part possibly because of important indirect effects. Complementary field and laboratory experiments were undertaken to tease apart the mechanistic drivers of the continental scale field bioassays by addressing the influence of litter, fungal and detritivore diversity. These revealed generally weak and context-dependent effects on decomposition, suggesting high levels of redundancy (and hence potential insurance mechanisms that can mitigate a degree of species loss) within the food web. Reduced species richness consistently increased decomposition variability, if not the absolute rate. Further field studies were aimed at identifying impor- tant sources of this variability (e.g. litter quality, temporal variability) to help constrain ranges of predicted decomposition rates in different field situations. Thus, although many details still need to be resolved, litter decomposition holds considerable potential in some circumstances to capture impairment of stream ecosystem functioning. For instance, species traits associated with the body size and metabolic capacity of the con- sumers were often the main driver at local scales, and these were often translated into important determinants of otherwise apparently contingent effects at larger scales. Key insights gained from conducting continental scale studies included resolving the appar- ent paradox of inconsistent relationships between nutrients and decomposition rates, as the full complex multidimensional picture emerged from the large-scale dataset, of which only seemingly contradictory fragments had been seen previously

Continental-Scale Effects of Nutrient Pollution on Stream Ecosystem Functioning

Excessive nutrient loading is a major threat to aquatic ecosystems worldwide that leads to profound changes in aquatic biodiversity and biogeochemical processes. Systematic quantitative assessment of functional ecosystem measures for river networks is, however, lacking, especially at continental scales. Here, we narrow this gap by means of a pan-European field experiment on a fundamental ecosystem process—leaf-litter breakdown—in 100 streams across a greater than 1000-fold nutrient gradient. Dramatically slowed breakdown at both extremes of the gradient indicated strong nutrient limitation in unaffected systems, potential for strong stimulation in moderately altered systems, and inhibition in highly polluted streams. This large-scale response pattern emphasizes the need to complement established structural approaches (such as water chemistry, hydrogeomorphology, and biological diversity metrics) with functional measures (such as litter-breakdown rate, whole-system metabolism, and nutrient spiraling) for assessing ecosystem health

Towards an integrated model of socioeconomic biodiversity drivers, pressures and impacts. A feasibility study based on three European long-term socio-ecological research platforms

Effective policies to slow the rate of anthropogenic biodiversity loss should reduce socioeconomic pressures on biodiversity, either directly or by modifying their underlying socioeconomic driving forces. The design of such policies is currently hampered by the limited understanding of socioeconomic drivers of and pressures on biodiversity as well as by lacking data, indicators and models. In order to improve understanding of these issues we here propose a conceptual model of socioeconomic biodiversity drivers and pressures. The model is based on the drivers-pressures-impacts-states-responses (DPSIR) scheme and on the socioeconomic metabolism approach. The aim of the model is to guide research aimed at improving our understanding of socioeconomic biodiversity pressures and drivers and to serve as a basis for the development of formal, quantitative models in that field. Based on three European long-term socio-ecological research (LTSER) platforms, we analyze the model's applicability and suitability as well as data availability and research needs. These platforms are the Danube Delta Wetland System in Romania, the Doñana in Spain and the Eisenwurzen in Austria. An empirical analysis of the relationship between the human appropriation of net primary production (HANPP) and breeding bird richness in the Eisenwurzen demonstrates the ability of HANPP to provide a link between socioeconomic pressures/drivers and biodiversity. The analysis of the case studies underlines the potential utility of the conceptual model to guide future research into socioeconomic biodiversity drivers and pressures. However, considerable investments in monitoring and reconstruction of past trajectories as well as in model development will be required before mathematical (computer) models of the interrelation processes between society and ecosystems can be successfully deployed. © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.Peer Reviewe

Adoption of the ecosystem services concept in EU policies

The concept of ecosystem services has gained a strong political profile during the last 15 years. However, there is no specific EU policy devoted to the governing of ecosystem services. This article shows that the ecosystem services concept is already embedded in recent EU (environmentally-related) policies, such as the Biodiversity Strategy 2020 and the Invasive Alien Species Regulation. A review of 12 policies shows that, overall, the coherence between existing policies and the ecosystem services concept is moderate. Policies showing very high coherence are confined to the policy arenas that address natural ecosystems, forestry, or agriculture. Given the sectoral nature of most EU policies and the limited options for revision in the near future, opportunities for improving coherence are mostly expected in improving the integration of the ecosystem services concept in the implementation of existing EU policies at national and regional levels

Dynamics in national agri-environmental policy implementation under changing EU policy priorities: Does one size fit all?

Over the past 30 years, Agri-Environmental Policies (AEP) in the EU have developed with relative national autonomy and according to the subsidiarity principle. The environmental directives represent an increase in EU-level environmental ambitions and challenge the current implementation of EU AEP by creating an increasingly demanding set of regulations with which each member state must comply. National AEP implementation may, however, maintain original characteristics and fail to adopt or transform as EU policy implementation proceeds or when EU policies develop. This creates a potential gap between EU policies and national policy implementation resulting in the ensuing national policy dynamics and adaptations becoming issues of interest. This raises a central question regarding the extent to which national AEP implementation can help us predict whether AEP will be suitable to achieve environmental directive objectives nationally in the future. In this paper, we first investigate the dynamics in the implementation of national Agri-Environmental Schemes (AES) through changes in (i) AES policy objectives over time, (ii) administrative implementation structures, and (iii) administrative policy decision structures in the Netherlands, Denmark, Greece, Austria and Romania. Second, we examine the extent to which various factors have influenced the development of national policies over time. The study identifies development based on the theory of ‘process of institutional change’, i.e. we qualitatively estimate the costs of change based on proposed factors including economic conditions in relation to AES implementation, political institutional capacity, policy legacy, policy preferences, and current discourse. On this background, we identify differences in implementation strategies or outcomes in terms of inertia, absorption and transformation, which are characteristic of the national responses to changing AEP at the EU level. We discuss AES dynamics; whether policy content or structures should be in focus for future policy design and the implications of these findings for the future role of AEP in fulfilling environmental directives and argue why a one size fits all rule does not adequately cover current AES development