Real Time Underlying Inflation Gauges for Monetary Policymakers

Central banks analyze a wide range of data to obtain better measures of underlying inflationary pressures. Factor models have widely been used to formalize this procedure. Using a dynamic factor model this paper develops a measure of underlying inflation (UIG) at time horizons of relevance for monetary policymakers for both CPI and PCE. The UIG uses a broad data set allowing for high-frequency updates on underlying inflation. The paper complements the existing literature on U.S. 'core' measures by illustrating how UIG is used and interpreted in real time since late 2005

The FRBNY Staff Underlying Inflation Gauge: UIG

Monetary policymakers and long-term investors would benefit greatly from a measure of underlying inflation that uses all relevant information, is available in real time, and forecasts inflation better than traditional underlying inflation measures such as core inflation measures. This paper presents the 'FRBNY Staff Underlying Inflation Gauge (UIG)' for CPI and PCE. Using a dynamic factor model approach, the UIG is derived from a broad data set that extends beyond price series to include a wide range of nominal, real, and financial variables. It also considers the specific and time-varying persistence of individual subcomponents of an inflation series. An attractive feature of the UIG is that it can be updated on a daily basis, which allows for a close monitoring of changes in underlying inflation. This capability can be very useful when large and sudden economic fluctuations occur, as at the end of 2008. In addition, the UIG displays greater forecast accuracy than traditional measures of core inflation

EMOTIONALITY IN ENVIRONMENTAL DECISIONS: THE INTERACTION OF PROBLEM AND DECIDER CHARACTERISTICS.

Emotionality in environmental decisions is a function of the characteristics of the environmental planning problem, the decider, and of the situation in which decisions occur. This research examined the effects of problem and decider characteristics upon the emotionality of the decision process and upon decisions. Descriptions of a resource management problem were varied in a two by four factorial design with two writing style levels (emotional and objective) and differential emphasis of two pro-development and two pro-preservative issues. Subjects read a problem description, made and evaluated confidence in a decision, placed the decision on a 156 mm preservation-development continuum, rated their emotionality on 42 scale items, and completed an Environmental Attitude Survey. Data analysis indicated that pro-development issue emphases resulted in more development decisions and lower confidence than pro-preservation emphases. Also, negative affect, environmental concern, preservation decisions, and confidence were interrelated. Neither independent variable affected emotionality, however, possibly due to the effects of the order of experimental instruments on salience of emotional response. A second experiment was conducted with half the original problem descriptions. Emotions were made more salient by asking subjects to complete the emotion scale instrument before making or describing their decisions. Significantly more preservation decisions were made in this second experiment and confidence in decisions increased. Increased negative affect was found in the second experiment also. Three major conclusions were reached. First, emotionality is a significant predictor of environmental decisions. The weakness of its predictive power may be due to the verbal, hypothetical, experimental setting. Second, the configuration of preservation decisions, high confidence, and negative affect could be related to behavior such as environmental activism, and bears further empirical investigation. Third, environmental decisions may be highly variable and sensitive to differences in situations and informational variables. A multi-method approach to study of environmental decisions and to gathering of public input is advocated

Behavioral consequences of architectural modifications to a nursing home

This item was digitized from a paper original and/or a microfilm copy. If you need higher-resolution images for any content in this item, please contact us at [email protected]

From oh to aha: Characteristics and types of environmental epiphany experiences

Despite the anecdotal evidence of experiences that shift the self–nature relationship, which we identify as Environmental Epiphanies, little is known about the characteristics and patterns of such experiences. In this study, we build on previous theoretical and conceptual frameworks of the Environmental Epiphany concept and report descriptive and typological findings based on in-depth interviews with 50 participants who had experienced Environmental Epiphanies. We present common characteristics of these experiences as well as descriptive information across five types of Environmental Epiphanies: Aesthetic, Intellectual, Realization, Awakening, and Connectedness. Based on our findings, we offer many areas for further exploration of this phenomenon as a psychological function as well as some recommendations for land managers, educators, and other environmental practitioners. Expanding our knowledge of how human–nature relationships function has implications regarding environmental decision-making, the role of emotions in self–nature relationships, and environmentally responsible behavior

From Oh to Aha: Characteristics and Types of Environmental Epiphany Experiences

Despite the anecdotal evidence of experiences that shift the self–nature relationship, which we identify as Environmental Epiphanies, little is known about the characteristics and patterns of such experiences. In this study, we build on previous theoretical and conceptual frameworks of the Environmental Epiphany concept and report descriptive and typological findings based on in-depth interviews with 50 participants who had experienced Environmental Epiphanies. We present common characteristics of these experiences as well as descriptive information across five types of Environmental Epiphanies: Aesthetic, Intellectual, Realization, Awakening, and Connectedness. Based on our findings, we offer many areas for further exploration of this phenomenon as a psychological function as well as some recommendations for land managers, educators, and other environmental practitioners. Expanding our knowledge of how human–nature relationships function has implications regarding environmental decision-making, the role of emotions in self–nature relationships, and environmentally responsible behavior

Shared Principles of Restoration Practice in the Chicago Wilderness Region

We describe the rules, norms, and strategies (institutional statements) that characterize ecological restoration across 10 organizations in the Chicago Wilderness region. Our use of Ostrom’s IAD ADICO grammar tool is novel in both context (non-extractive resource management) and data type (qualitative interviews). Results suggest that, in contrast to a focus on rules in the literature, restoration is overwhelmingly guided by strategies (institutional statements void of tangible or emotional sanctions). Moreover, a small, but critical set of norms exist. From over 1,700 institutional statements extracted, we found a suite of rich principles that guide behavior in all of the organizations: (1) qualify, don’t quantify; (2) listen to the land; (3) practice follow-up; (4) do no harm; (5) respond to sanctions from the land; (6) balance diverse internal stakeholders; and (7) balance diverse external factors. These principles suggest that Chicago Wilderness restorationists have a strong shared understanding upon which collective action and adaptive management occurs