Computer use and the U.S. wage distribution, 1984-2003

Given past estimates of wage increases associated with workplace computer use and higher usage rates among more skilled workers, the diffusion of computers has been interpreted as a mechanism for skill-biased technological change and consequent widening of the earnings distribution. I investigate this link by testing for direct effects of rising computer use on the distribution of wages in the United States. Analysis of data from the periodic CPS computer use supplements over the years 1984-2003 reveals that the positive association between workplace computer use and wages declines at higher skill levels, with the notable exception of a higher return to computer use for highly educated workers that emerged after 1997. Over my complete sample frame, however, the net association between rising computer use and the distribution of wages was quite limited. For broad groups defined by educational attainment, rising computer use was associated with rising between-group inequality that was offset by falling within-group inequality, suggesting that computers have exerted a "leveling" rather than a "polarizing" effect on wages.Computers ; Wages

The Effect of Public Sector Labor laws on Collective Bargaining, Wages, and Employment

This paper examines the effect of the different legal environments for bargaining faced by public employees across the states on wage and employment outcomes for union and nonunion employees, and also on the extent of bargaining, using cross-section, within-city, and longitudinal analyses based on a newly-derived data set on public sector labor laws. We find that: (1) the legal environment is a significant determinant of the probability of collective bargaining coverage; (2) collective bargaining coverage raises wages and employment for covered employees; (3) a more favorable legal environment increases wages for all employees, but substantially reduces employment for employees not covered by a contract, while slightly reducing employment for employees who are covered by a contract. We also find evidence of significant spillovers of union wage effects to non-covered departments. We conclude by focusing on the effects of two specific legal provisions - arbitration and strike permitted clauses - on wages and employment.

Changing Family Behavior and the U.S. Income Distribution

The trend toward increasing family income inequality in the U.S. over the past several decades is well documented. Among possible explanations for this increase are rising inequality in individual earnings, changes in family labor supply decisions, and changes in family structure and living arrangements. We analyze the contribution of the latter two factors to rising family income inequality during the 1980s using conditionally weighted density estimation, a semiparametric decomposition technique recently pioneered and applied to assess the causes of rising earnings inequality (DiNardo, Fortin, and Lemieux 1996). This technique enables estimation of the impact of the modeled factors on the complete distribution of income. We use data from the March Current Population Surveys for the years 1980 and 1990, which yield family income information for the years 1979 and 1989. The primary effect of both changing family structure and changes in wives' labor force participation was on the midpoint of the family income distribution. The effect of changing family structure on rising inequality was small over this period, primarily because the net change in family structure was small. However, the increase in wives' labor force participation explains about 10 to 25 percent of the increase in family income inequality.

Cross-National Trends in Earnings Instability and Earnings Inequality

Changes in inequality of yearly earnings can arise from changes in the distribution of lifetime earnings (permanent changes) and changes in the stability of earnings (transitory changes). Past research has found increases in both components in the United States over the past several decades. We extend this literature by comparing the United States with Germany and Great Britain. We use data from the Cross-National Equivalent Files (Cornell University) to document trends in cross-sectional and long-run earnings inequality. These data enable us to examine earnings dynamics during the years 1979-1996 for the United States, 1983-1997 for Germany, and 1990-1997 for Great Britain. Despite differences in labor market structure, our descriptive models reveal similar basic patterns of earnings mobility and dynamics in these countries. We then apply a method of moments approach to estimate the parameters of a heterogeneous growth model of permanent and transitory earnings. The results indicate that although there are substantial differences in overall cross-sectional inequality across these countries, the persistent component of earnings inequality was quite similar in each in the 1990searnings mobility, inequality, comparative

Inequality and poverty in the United States: the effects of changing family behavior and rising wage dispersion

The trend toward increasing inequality in family income in the United States since the late 1960s is well documented. Among key possible explanations for this increase are rising dispersion in individual earnings, changes in female labor supply decisions, and changes in family composition and living arrangements. We analyze the contribution of these factors to changes in family income inequality and poverty during the years 1969-1998, focusing on labor supply and family structure as behavioral changes but accounting also for changes in the distribution of male earnings. Our analyses rely on conditionally weighted density estimation, a semiparametric decomposition technique recently developed by DiNardo, Fortin, and Lemieux (1996). We also use a relatively novel rank-based distributional exchange to assess the effects of changes in the distribution of male earnings. ; In our empirical work, we first analyze changes between 1969 and 1989, which corresponds roughly to the period of rising inequality that has been the focus of previous work. Our results indicate that rising dispersion of male earnings and the decline of traditional forms of family structure respectively explain up to about three-fourths and about one-half of rising inequality in family income during this period. The impact of changing family structure was most pronounced in the lower half of the distribution. In contrast, the increase in female labor force participation offset rising inequality to some degree, mainly in the upper half of the distribution, although its impact has moved down the distribution over time. In extending the analyses to the 1990s, we find that the rate at which inequality grew slowed after 1989, but the explanatory factors continued to have substantial effects. In each decade, the effects of the explanatory factors on poverty were especially large and followed a pattern similar to that for inequality.Poverty ; Income distribution ; Income

Climate change and asset prices: hedonic estimates for North American ski resorts

We use a hedonic framework to estimate and simulate the impact of global warming on real estate prices at North American ski resorts. To do so, we combine data on resort-area housing prices from two sources--data on average prices for U.S. Census tracts across a broad swath of the western U.S. and data on individual home sales for four markets in the western U.S. and Canada, each available over multiple decades--with detailed weather data and characteristics of ski resorts in those areas. Our OLS and fixed-effects models of changes in house prices with respect to medium-run changes in the share of snowfall in winter precipitation yield precise and consistent estimates of positive snowfall effects on housing values in both data sources. We use our estimates to simulate the impact of likely climate shifts on house prices in coming decades and find substantial variation across resort areas based on climatic characteristics such as longitude, elevation, and proximity to the Pacific Ocean. Resorts that are unfavorably located face likely large negative effects on home prices due to warming, unless adaptive measures are able to compensate for the deterioration of conditions in the ski industry.Environmental protection ; Housing - Prices ; Skis and skiing

Union effects on health insurance provision and coverage in the United States

Since Freeman and Medoff's (1984) comprehensive review of what unions do, union density in the U.S. has fallen substantially. During the same period, employer provision of health insurance has undergone substantial changes in extent and form. Using individual data from various supplements to the Current Population Survey and establishment data from the 1993 Robert Wood Johnson Foundation survey, we investigate the effects of unionization on employer provision of health benefits. We find that in addition to increasing coverage by employer-provided health benefits, unions reduce employee cost sharing and substantially increase the probability that employer-provided health plans extend to retirees. The union effects on coverage for current employees and for retirees have risen over time, and our estimates suggest that declining unionization explains about 17-20 percent of the decrease in employer-provided health insurance between 1983 and 1997.Labor unions ; Insurance, Health

The labor market in the Great Recession: an update

Since the end of the Great Recession in mid-2009, the unemployment rate has recovered slowly, falling by only one percentage point from its peak. We find that the lackluster labor market recovery can be traced in large part to weakness in aggregate demand; only a small part seems attributable to increases in labor market frictions. This continued labor market weakness has led to the highest level of long-term unemployment in the U.S. in the postwar period, and a blurring of the distinction between unemployment and nonparticipation. We show that flows from nonparticipation to unemployment are important for understanding the recent evolution of the duration distribution of unemployment. Simulations that account for these flows suggest that the U.S. labor market is unlikely to be subject to high levels of structural long-term unemployment after aggregate demand recovers. ; Powerpoint supplement available at http://www.frbsf.org/economics/economists/wp11-29bk_supplement.pdfLabor market ; Recessions

Extensions and rollbacks of US unemployment insurance benefits primarily affected how long people searched for work rather than job finding.

In 2010, the US government extended unemployment insurance benefits to a maximum of 99 weeks. This extension was rolled back in 2012 and 2013, and now no state has benefits available beyond the normal duration (26 weeks in general). In new research, Henry S. Farber, Jesse Rothstein, and Robert G. Valletta examine the impact of the extension and subsequent rollback of unemployment insurance. They find that the unemployment insurance extension did not substantially reduce the rate at which people found jobs, but did keep them as active labor force participants for longer

The effect of an employer health insurance mandate on health insurance coverage and the demand for labor: evidence from Hawaii

Over the past few decades, policy makers have considered employer mandates as a strategy for stemming the tide of declining health insurance coverage. In this paper we examine the long term effects of the only employer health insurance mandate that has ever been enforced in the United States, Hawaii's Prepaid Health Care Act, using a standard supply-demand framework and Current Population Survey data covering the years 1979 to 2005. During this period, the coverage gap between Hawaii and other states increased, as did real health insurance costs, implying a rising burden of the mandate on Hawaii's employers. We use a variant of the traditional permutation (placebo) test across all states to examine the magnitude and statistical properties of these growing coverage differences and their impacts on labor market outcomes, conditional on an extensive set of covariates. As expected, the coverage gap is larger for workers who tend to have low rates of coverage in the voluntary market (primarily those with lower skills). We also find that relative wages fell in Hawaii over time, but the estimates are statistically insignificant. By contrast, a parallel analysis of workers employed fewer than 20 hours per week indicates that the law significantly increased employers' reliance on such workers in order to reduce the burden of the mandate. We find no evidence suggesting that the law reduced employment probabilities.Insurance, Health ; Employment ; Hours of labor ; Wages