Runoff variations in Lake Balkhash Basin, Central Asia, 1779-2015, inferred from tree rings

Long highly-resolved proxies for runoff are in high demand for hydrological forecasts and water management in arid Central Asia. An accurate (R2 = 0.53) reconstruction of October-September discharge of the Ili River in Kazakhstan, 1779–2015, is developed from moisture-sensitive tree rings of spruce sampled in the Tian Shan Mountains. The fivefold extension of the gauged discharge record represents the variability of runoff in the Lake Balkhash Basin for the last 235 years. The reconstruction shows a 40 year long interval of low discharge preceded a recent high peak in the first decade of the 2000s followed by a decline to more recent levels of discharge not seen since the start of the gauged record. Most reconstructed flow extremes (± 2σ) occur outside the instrumental record (1936–2015) and predate the start of large dam construction (1969). Decadal variability of the Ili discharge corresponds well with hydrological records of other Eurasian internal drainages modeled with tree rings. Spectral analysis identifies variance peaks (highest near 42 year) consistent with main hemispheric oscillations of the Eurasian climatic system. Seasonal comparison of the Ili discharge with sea-level-pressure and geopotential height data suggests periods of high flow likely result from the increased contribution of snow to runoff associated with the interaction of Arctic air circulation with the Siberian High-Pressure System and North Atlantic Oscillation

DUST LOADING OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND GLACIERS IN THE KUMTOR MINING AREA (AKSHYYRAK, TIEN SHAN)

Industrial development of the Kumtor Gold Mine in the nival-glacial zone of Tien Shan (altitude ranging from 4000 to 4500 m a.s.l.) is inevitably accompanied by the release of some additional amounts of dust in atmosphere. Sampling in 7 points and an analysis of the quantity (weight) of dust in the seasonal snow (September–April) on glaciers show that the dust pollution does not substantially exceed the natural level of dust in Tien Shan. An analysis of almost 3 000 daily measurements of dust in the surface layer of air at 4 points around the gold mine has also shown that the economic activity has no significant impact on dust production. It is likely that the manmade component of overall dust in the immediate vicinity of the deposit and the gob pile does not exceed 20%. No increase in the content of dust and in its anthropogenic component with time has been found. Thus, we suggest that the principal amount of dust in the area is brought during the cold season from snow-free areas of Central Asia

Rock waste dumps on the Davydov Glacier (Akshyirak Range, Tien Shan)

Since 1995, a barren rock has been formed at the Davydov Glacier, due to the works at the Kumtor Gold Mine. By the end of 2010, total amount of the rock, stockpiled on the glacier, apparently exceeded 200 million tons, the height of dumps of rock sometimes exceeded 50 meters. The most noticeable effects of this are provoking local surges of the Davydov Glacier and squeezing glacier ice out of the dumps of rock. For a detailed analysis of both processes, we also used the results of periodic geodetic measurements (over 8000) of monitoring rods (about 800 rods) of the gold mining company. A number of local surges of the glacier has been found, the first of which began in March–April 2002. To analyze glacier squeezing out of the dumps of rock, mathematical modeling of that process has been done. It was established that in most cases, the glacier is almost completely squeezed out of for 1–2 years

ЗАПЫЛЕННОСТЬ АТМОСФЕРЫ И ЛЕДНИКОВ В РАЙОНЕ МЕСТОРОЖДЕНИЯ КУМТОР (ХР. АКШЫЙРАК, ТЯНЬ-ШАНЬ)

Industrial development of the Kumtor Gold Mine in the nival-glacial zone of Tien Shan (altitude ranging from 4000 to 4500 m a.s.l.) is inevitably accompanied by the release of some additional amounts of dust in atmosphere. Sampling in 7 points and an analysis of the quantity (weight) of dust in the seasonal snow (September–April) on glaciers show that the dust pollution does not substantially exceed the natural level of dust in Tien Shan. An analysis of almost 3 000 daily measurements of dust in the surface layer of air at 4 points around the gold mine has also shown that the economic activity has no significant impact on dust production. It is likely that the manmade component of overall dust in the immediate vicinity of the deposit and the gob pile does not exceed 20%. No increase in the content of dust and in its anthropogenic component with time has been found. Thus, we suggest that the principal amount of dust in the area is brought during the cold season from snow-free areas of Central Asia.Промышленная разработка золоторудного месторождения Кумтор, начатая в 1996 г., неизбежно сопровождается выделением дополнительного количества пыли в атмосферу. Проанализированы результаты многолетних измерений количества пыли в приземном атмосферном воздухе и разовые измерения количества пыли в сезонном слое снега на близлежащих ледниках. Установлено незначительное влияние производственно-хозяйственной деятельности в районе разработки месторождения на увеличени

Отвалы горной породы на леднике Давыдова (хр. Акшыйрак, Тянь-Шань)

Since 1995, a barren rock has been formed at the Davydov Glacier, due to the works at the Kumtor Gold Mine. By the end of 2010, total amount of the rock, stockpiled on the glacier, apparently exceeded 200 million tons, the height of dumps of rock sometimes exceeded 50 meters. The most noticeable effects of this are provoking local surges of the Davydov Glacier and squeezing glacier ice out of the dumps of rock. For a detailed analysis of both processes, we also used the results of periodic geodetic measurements (over 8000) of monitoring rods (about 800 rods) of the gold mining company. A number of local surges of the glacier has been found, the first of which began in March–April 2002. To analyze glacier squeezing out of the dumps of rock, mathematical modeling of that process has been done. It was established that in most cases, the glacier is almost completely squeezed out of for 1–2 years.Подготовка и промышленная разработка золоторудного месторождения Кумтор сопровождается складированием пустой горной породы на поверхность ледника Давыдова. Общая масса складированной на ледник горной породы на конец 2010 г. превысила 200 млн т. Такая большая масса горной породы на леднике коренным образом перестраивает его режим. В работе рассмотрены два аспекта этой перестройки: провоцирование подвижки ледника Давыдова и выдавливание льда из-под отвалов

Water supply and ancient society in the Lake Balkhash Basin: Runoff variability along the historical Silk Road

Expansion of agricultural practices from the Fertile Crescent to China during the mid and late Holocene are believed to have shaped the early network of Silk Road routes and possibly regulated the dynamics of trade and exchange in the urban oases along the Silk Road throughout its existence. While the impacts of climate change on the Silk Road are more or less documented for the medieval period, they remain poorly understood for early history of the Silk Road, especially in Central Asia. We analyze hydroclimatic proxies derived from fluvial stratigraphy, geochronology, and tree-ring records that acted on various time scales in the Lake Balkhash Basin to learn how changes in water supply could have influenced the early farmers in the Semirechye region of southern Kazakhstan. Our approach aims to identify short-term and long-term variability of regional runoff and to compare the hydrological data with cultural dynamics coupled with the archaeological settlement pattern and agricultural production. The reconstructed runoff variability underscore the contribution of winter precipitation driven by the interaction between the Arctic oscillation and the Siberian High-Pressure System, to Central Asian river discharge. We show that Saka people of the Iron Age employed extensive ravine agriculture on the alluvial fans of the Tian Shan piedmont, where floodwater farming peaked between 400 BC and 200 BC. The early Silk Road farmers on the alluvial fans favored periods of reduced flood flows, river stability and glacier retreat in the Tian Shan Mountains. Moreover, they were able to apply simple flow control structures to lead water across the fan surface. It is very unlikely that changes in water supply ever significantly constricted agricultural expansion in this region