Assessing glacial lake outburst flood risk.

Glaciers across the world are thinning and receding in response to atmospheric warming. Glaciers tend to erode subglacial basins and deposit eroded materials around their margins as lateral-frontal terminal moraines. Recession into these basins and behind impounding moraines causes meltwater to pond as proglacial and supraglacial lakes. Consequently, there has been a general trend of increasing number and size of these lakes associated with glacier melting in many mountainous regions around the globe, in the last 30 years. Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) then may occur where the glacial lake dam (ice, rock, moraine, or combination thereof) is breached, or overtopped, and thousands of people have lost their lives to such events in the last few decades, especially in the Andes and in the Himalaya. Given the ongoing and arguably increasing risk posed to downstream communities, and infrastructure, there has been a proliferation of GLOF studies, with many seeking to estimate GLOF hazard or risk in specific regions, or to identify ‘potentially dangerous glacial lakes’. Given the increased scientific interest in GLOFs, it is timely to evaluate critically the ways in which GLOF risk has been assessed previously, and whether there are improvements that can be made to the ways in which risk assessment is achieved. We argue that, whilst existing GLOF hazard and risk assessments have been extremely valuable they often suffer from a number of key shortcomings that can be addressed by using different techniques as multi-criteria decision analysis and hydraulic modelling borrowed from disciplines like engineering, remote sensing and operations research

Atmospheric drying as the main driver of dramatic glacier wastage in the southern Indian Ocean

This study was funded by IPEV-1048 GLACIOCLIM-KESAACO and LEFE-INSU KCRuMBLE programs, and the Agence Nationale de la Recherche through contract ANR-14-CE01-0001-01 (ASUMA).The ongoing retreat of glaciers at southern sub-polar latitudes is particularly rapid and widespread. Akin to northern sub-polar latitudes, this retreat is generally assumed to be linked to warming. However, no long-term and well-constrained glacier modeling has ever been performed to confirm this hypothesis. Here, we model the Cook Ice Cap mass balance on the Kerguelen Islands (Southern Indian Ocean, 49°S) since the 1850s. We show that glacier wastage during the 2000s in the Kerguelen was among the most dramatic on Earth. We attribute 77% of the increasingly negative mass balance since the 1960s to atmospheric drying associated with a poleward shift of the mid-latitude storm track. Because precipitation modeling is very challenging for the current generation of climate models over the study area, models incorrectly simulate the climate drivers behind the recent glacier wastage in the Kerguelen. This suggests that future glacier wastage projections should be considered cautiously where changes in atmospheric circulation are expected.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Be‐10 dating of ice‐marginal moraines in the Khumbu Valley, Nepal, Central Himalaya, reveals the response of monsoon‐influenced glaciers to Holocene climate change

The dynamic response of large mountain glaciers to climatic forcing operates over timescales of several centuries and therefore understanding how these glaciers change requires observations of their behavior through the Holocene. We used Be-10 exposure-age dating and geomorphological mapping to constrain the evolution of glaciers in the Khumbu Valley in the Everest region of Nepal. Khumbu and Lobuche Glaciers are surrounded by high-relief lateral and terminal moraines from which seven glacial stages were identified and dated to 7.4 ± 0.2, 5.0 ± 0.3, 3.9 ± 0.1, 2.8 ± 0.2, 1.3 ± 0.1, 0.9 ± 0.02, and 0.6 ± 0.16 ka. These stages correlate to each of the seven latest Holocene regional glacial stages identified across the monsoon-influenced Himalaya, demonstrating that a coherent record of high elevation terrestrial palaeoclimate change can be extracted from dynamic mountain landscapes. The time-constrained moraine complex represents a catchment-wide denudation rate of 0.8–1.4 mm a−1 over the last 8 kyr. The geometry of the ablation area of Khumbu Glacier changed around 4 ka from a broad, shallow ice tongue to become narrower and thicker as restricted by the topographic barrier of the terminal moraine complex

История ледника Алибек по данным дистанционного зондирования, биоиндикации, 14С и 10Be датирования

In this article we present the reconstruction of fluctuations of Alibek valley glacier situated in the Teberda valley, Western Caucasus. The former positions of glacier of the past 120 years were reconstructed basing on the old photographs of 1904, 1921, remote sensing data of 1955, 1987, 2007, 2008 and 2012, plans created in 20th century. Since the middle of 20th century Alibek Glacier decreased by 650 m in length and by 0,67 km2 in area and its tongue has risen by 110 m.Приведена реконструкция колебаний долинного ледника Алибек, расположенного в долине р. Теберда на Западном Кавказе. Источником информации о положении конца ледника служили фотографии 1904, 1921, 2004 и 2008 гг., космические и аэрофотоснимки 1955, 1987, 2007, 2008 и 2012 гг. На этой основе реконструировано семь положений языка ледника за последние 120 лет. С середины XIX в. ледник Алибек сократился в длину на 650 м, по площади – на 0,67 км2, а высота конца ледника повысилась на 110 м

Glacial lake outburst flood risk in the Bolivian Andes

Glaciers of the Bolivian Andes have experienced areal shrinkage of _43% in the last three decades, which has been accompanied by the development of proglacial lakes, some of which could generate glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). We provide the first attempt to assess GLOF risk in Bolivia, and model potential GLOF inundation. There are _137 proglacial lakes in the Bolivian Andes, 25 of which have population and/or infrastructure downstream.We first developed a GLOF risk assessment strategy using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) guidelines that could be used remotely and free-of-charge to identify glacial lakes that represent the greatest GLOF risk. This revealed that three lakes posed medium or high risk, and required further analysis. Secondly, we undertook a modelling study of potential GLOF inundation from these three lakes. This involved the generation of a 2m resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM) from stereo and tri-stereo SPOT 6/7 satellite images; the 2D hydrodynamic model HEC-RAS 5.0.3 was used to model GLOF flow. The model was tested against field observations of a 2009 GLOF from Keara, in the Cordillera Apolobamba, and was shown to reproduce realistic flood depths and inundation. The model was then used to model GLOFs from Pelechuco lake (Cordillera Apolobamba), and Laguna Arkhata and Laguna Glaciar (Cordillera Real). In total, six villages could be affected by GLOFs if all three lakes were to burst. We ran the model for three scenarios (pessimistic, intermediate, optimistic) which give a range of 1589 and 2302 people affected by flooding; between 1107 and 2168 people would be exposed to damaging floods (flow depth _ 2m). We suggest that Laguna Arkhata and Pelechuco lake represent the greatest risk due to the higher numbers of people who live in the potential flood paths, and hence should be a priority for risk managers

Изменения ледника Чалаати (Грузинский Кавказ) с малого ледникового периода по данным космогенных изотопов (10Be) и дендрохронологии

Glacier variations over the past centuries are still poorly documented on the southern slope of the Greater Caucasus. In this paper, the change of Chalaati Glacier in the Georgian Caucasus from its maximum extent during the Little Ice Age has been studied. For the first time in the history of glaciological studies of the Georgian Caucasus, 10Be in situ Cosmic Ray Exposure (CRE) dating was applied. The age of moraines was determined by tree-ring analysis. Lichenometry was also used as a supplementary tool to determine the relative ages of glacial landforms. In addition, the large-scale topographical maps (1887, 1960) were used along with the satellite imagery – Corona, Landsat 5 TM, and Sentinel 2B. Repeated photographs were used to identify the glacier extent in the late XIX and early XX centuries. 10Be CRE ages from the oldest lateral moraine of the Chalaati Glacier suggest that the onset of the Little Ice Age occurred ~0.73±0.04 kyr ago (CE ~1250–1330), while the dendrochronology and lichenometry measurements show that the Chalaati Glacier reached its secondary maximum extent again about CE ~1810. From that time through 2018 the glacier area decreased from 14.9±1.5 km2 to 9.9±0.5 km2 (33.8±7.4% or ~0.16% yr−1), while its length retreated by ~2280 m. The retreat rate was uneven: it peaked between 1940 and 1971 (~22.9 m yr−1), while the rate was slowest in 1910– 1930 (~4.0 m yr−1). The terminus elevation rose from ~1620 m to ~1980 m above sea level in ~1810–2018.Для реконструкции колебаний ледника Чалаати в Грузии использовались космические снимки, старые карты, повторные фотографии, дендрохронология, лихенометрия и анализ космогенных изотопов. Максимальное наступание ледника в начале малого ледникового периода произошло в ~1250–1330 гг., второй максимум, когда ледник достиг почти такой же длины, датируется примерно 1810 г. С этого времени до 2018 г. площадь ледника уменьшилась с 14,9±1,5 до 9,9±0,5 км2 (33,8±7,4%, или ~0,16% год−1), а его длина сократилась на ~2280 м

Late Glacial deglaciation of the Zackenberg area NE Greenland

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is a key component of the global climate system. However, our current understanding of the spatio-temporal oscillations and landscape transformation of the GrIS margins since the last glacial cycle is still incomplete. The objective of this work is to study the deglaciation of the Zackenberg Valley (74°N, 20°E), NE Greenland, and the origin of the derived landforms. Based on extensive fieldwork and high-detail geomorphological mapping we identified the different types of landforms, from which those of glacial and paraglacial origin were used to understand the processes driving regional environmental evolution. We applied cosmic-ray exposure (CRE) dating to 32 samples taken from erosive and depositional glacial landforms distributed across the valley. Geomorphological evidence shows that >800-m-thick Late Quaternary glacier filled the valleys and fjords and covered mountain summits. In subsequent phases, as ice thickness decreased, the glacier was limited to the interior of the valley, leaving several lateral moraines. The deglaciation of the Zackenberg Valley that started by ~13.7–12.5 ka also accelerated slope paraglacial processes. Many blocks from lateral moraines were remobilized and fell, reaching the valley floor where they covered the thinning glacier tongue; transforming it into a debris-covered glacier that subsequently melted gradually. By ca. 10.5 ka, the last remnants of glacial ice disappeared from the Zackenberg Valley floor, a chronology of deglaciation that is similar to that observed in other sites across NE Greenland. The results of this work must be considered in similar studies, reinforcing the need to support CRE ages of the different geomorphological phases with paleoclimatic data from other sedimentary records

Terrestrial and submarine evidence for the extent and timing of the Last Glacial Maximum and the onset of deglaciation on the maritime-Antarctic and sub-Antarctic islands

This paper is the maritime and sub–Antarctic contribution to the Scientific Committee for Antarctic Research (SCAR) Past Antarctic Ice Sheet Dynamics (PAIS) community Antarctic Ice Sheet reconstruction. The overarching aim for all sectors of Antarctica was to reconstruct the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) ice sheet extent and thickness, and map the subsequent deglaciation in a series of 5000 year time slices. However, our review of the literature found surprisingly few high quality chronological constraints on changing glacier extents on these timescales in the maritime and sub–Antarctic sector. Therefore, in this paper we focus on an assessment of the terrestrial and offshore evidence for the LGM ice extent, establishing minimum ages for the onset of deglaciation, and separating evidence of deglaciation from LGM limits from those associated with later Holocene glacier fluctuations. Evidence included geomorphological descriptions of glacial landscapes, radiocarbon dated basal peat and lake sediment deposits, cosmogenic isotope ages of glacial features and molecular biological data. We propose a classification of the glacial history of the maritime and sub–Antarctic islands based on this assembled evidence. These include: (Type I) islands which accumulated little or no LGM ice; (Type II) islands with a limited LGM ice extent but evidence of extensive earlier continental shelf glaciations; (Type III) seamounts and volcanoes unlikely to have accumulated significant LGM ice cover; (Type IV) islands on shallow shelves with both terrestrial and submarine evidence of LGM (and/or earlier) ice expansion; (Type V) Islands north of the Antarctic Polar Front with terrestrial evidence of LGM ice expansion; and (Type VI) islands with no data. Finally, we review the climatological and geomorphological settings that separate the glaciological history of the islands within this classification scheme