EXCESSIVE MORTALITY IN WINTER IN MOSCOW AND ITS ECONOMIC VALUE DURING THE YEARS 2007-2014

Aim. To study the excessive mortality during the winter (EMW) from all causes and CVD, monthly values of mortality; to evaluate social and economic harm due to EMW in Moscow.Material and methods. The calculation of EMW (%) was done for Moscow by the mortality from all causes and from CVD by a special equation. For monthly values of mortality we estimated the average range per month by absolute number of the deaths — absolute parameters of mortality by every analyzed year were ranged from 1 to 12, and mean value of the range was calculated.Results. Mean EMW per 8 years was 5,1%, for CVD higher — 8,8%. In Moscow there is an influence of the anomaly heat of 2010 — EMW was 4,5% from all causes, from CVD — 6,0%. Maximum number of deaths was registered in January and march. Gross EH by 2007-2013 from EMW was 7,9 billion rubles in Moscow.Conclusion. A significant part of EMW are the deaths from CVD. The amount of EH from EMW has confirmed the shown previously relation from two factors — number of deaths and size of GRP in region. For Moscow — the capital of Russia, having the highest values of economic development, the harm, that is quite significant, grounds the necessity of investments into excessive mortality and search for effective by decrease of mortality in winter time

Сравнительный анализ плотности печени по данным КТ и низкодозной КТ органов грудной клетки

The introduction of LDCT-based screening programs into clinical practice allows an additional assessment of the liver. It is known that medium-to-severe steatosis can be detected using LDCT. However, taking into account the increased image noise level and the fact that the liver is always only partly in the scan area, the question arises as to how accurately the liver density can be determined in LDCT relative to routine CT.Purpose. Thus, the following objectives of this study have been established:• To identify the differences between the mean density of the liver as measured by a CT and an LNDT.• To compare the mean density between CT and LDCT in different patient subgroups depending on the mean liver density (<40 HU, 40–50 HU, 50–60 HU, and >60 HU).• To determine the effect of image noise level on the mean liver density values on LDCT compared to CT.Materials and methods. We analyzed 30000 patient records from 2017 to 2019.Inclusion criteria: We included patients with both thoracic non-contrast CT and an LDCT and the time interval between the studies of less than 27 days.Exclusion criteria: The absence of CT-LDCT pair, presence of focal liver lesions, known liver diseases, operated liver, anemia with blood density decrease below 40 HU, hands along the body instead of overhead.Study protocol: LDCT was performed at 135 kV. The routine CT was at 120 kV. Scan length: from lung apex to pleural sinuses. The average radiation dose with LDCT was 0.6–0.8 mSv, and 2.8–4.6 mSv with routine CT. All scans were performed on two 64-detector units from the same manufacturer.We measured liver density with the CTLiverExam software algorithm for automatic liver densitometry.The statistical processing was done using the Stata14 program.Results. We used data from 61 patients for statistical analysis. The average age was 53 years. The ratio of men to women was 23:38.We did not observe statistically significant differences between CT and LDCT. With a breakdown by the initial liver density level, it turned out that in the subgroup 40-50 HU, the differences were statistically significant. No correlation between liver density and standard deviation for CT was revealed (p = 0.338). There was a mild anticorrelation for LDCT with a coefficient of -0.686 (p < 0.0001).Conclusion. Our study shows that liver density measurement in thoracic LDCT is valid. In the context of lung cancer screening programs. An analysis of the image noise/liver density ratio on the LDCT shows an inversely proportional relationship: the higher the noise level, the more significant a “decrease” in liver density. This factor must be taken into account when interpreting the results CT and LDCT.Жировой гепатоз – распространенный вид патологии, своевременное выявление которой позволяет избежать прогрессирования заболевания и развития необратимых изменений. Известно, что по данным стандартной компьютерной томографии (КТ) и низкодозной КТ (НДКТ) можно достоверно выявлять стеатоз средней и тяжелой степеней, в том числе при исследовании органов грудной клетки (ОГК). Таким образом внедрение в клиническую практику скрининговых программ с помощью НДКТ позволяет проводить дополнительную оценку состояния печени.Цель исследования: оценка возможностей корректного определения средней плотности печени при НДКТ ОГК для выявления признаков жирового гепатоза при проведении скрининговых исследований.Материал и методы. Проанализированы результаты КТ и НДКТ ОГК 30 000 пациентов, выполненных за период 2017–2019 гг. Критериями включения в разработку являлось наличие у пациента данных КТ и НДКТ в промежутке менее 27 дней между исследованиями. Исследования, при которых в печени выявлены образования, пациенты после операций на печени, с анемией, при снижении плотности крови менее 40 HU, с опущенными вдоль туловища руками во время исследования и при некорректной сегментации печени при обработке изображений не включались в анализ.Исследования НДКТ и КТ были выполнены на 64-срезовых томографах. Протяженность сканирования: от верхушки легких до плевральных синусов. Напряжение при низкодозном протоколе было равно 135 кВ, при стандартном – 120 кВ. Средняя лучевая нагрузка при НДКТ составила 0,6–0,8 мЗв, при стандартной КТ – 2,8–4,6 мЗв.Автоматический анализ изображений проводился с помощью разработанного ПО для автоматического измерения плотности печени, статистический анализ – с помощью программы Stata14 (StataCorp LLC, College Station, Texas, США).Результаты. Отобраны результаты исследований 61 пациента, которые соответствовали заданным критериям. Соотношение мужчин к женщинам составило 23:38, средний возраст – 53 года.При сравнительной оценке рентгенологической плотности печени при КТ и НДКТ на всей выборке  статистически значимых отличий не выявлено (p < 0,480), при этом отмечалось незначительное повышение средних значений плотности при использовании низкодозных протоколов сканирования: 52,81 HU при НДКТ и 51,88 HU при КТ.Оценка исследований, разбитых на подгруппы в зависимости от плотности печени, показала, что в подгруппе  40–50 HU полученные данные отличаются статистической значимостью (p < 0,0003), тогда как в остальных группах подобная взаимосвязь не выявлена (p < 0,753, p < 0,269, p < 0,077). При НДКТ отмечена средняя антикорреляция между плотностью и среднеквадратическим отклонением с коэффициентом -0,686 (p < 0,0001).Обсуждение. Результат статистического анализа показал, что данные плотности печени при НДКТ сопоставимы с КТ. Это позволяет выявлять пациентов с жировым гепатозом средней и тяжелой степеней,не повышая дозу лучевой нагрузки.Анализ влияния шумовых помех на плотность печени при НДКТ показал, что чем выше уровень шума, тем интенсивнее снижаются данные плотности печени, что необходимо учитывать при трактовке результатов. Отсутствие единых значений плотности печени, различающих ее нормальные значения от сниженных, затрудняет интерпретацию данных, находящихся в диапазоне 40–50 HU, что требует проведения дальнейших исследований

Long-term outcomes in patients after COVID-19: data from the TARGET-VIP registry

Aim. To assess long-term outcomes within 12 months after hospital treatment of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) as part of a prospective registry.Material and methods. Outcomes in the posthospital period were assessed in 827 patients diagnosed with COVID-19 (age, 58,0±14,8 years; men, 51,3%). For periods of 30-60 days, 6 and 12 months after discharge from the hospital, cases of death, nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke, hospitalization, acute respiratory viral infections/influenza were assessed. The follow-up period was 13,0±1,5 months.Results. During the follow-up period, 35 (4,2%) patients died, 6 (0,73%) and 4 (0,48%) cases of MI and stroke were registered. In addition, 142 (17%) patients were hospitalized, while 217 (26,2%) patients had acute respiratory viral infections/ influenza. Factors of age and length of intensive care unit stay were significantly associated (p<0,001) with the risk of all-cause death (hazard ratio (HR)=1,085 per 1 year of life and HR=6,98, respectively), with the risk of composite endpoint (death, non-fatal MI and stroke): HR=1,081 per 1 year of life and HP=4,47. Of the 35 deaths, 11 (31%) were within the first 30 days of follow-up, and 19 (54%) — 90 days after discharge from the hospital. A higher probability of hospitalization was associated with older age (odds ratio (OR)=1,038; p<0,001), while a higher probability of acute respiratory viral infections/influenza was associated with younger age (OR=0,976 per 1 year of life; p<0,001) and female sex (OR=1,414; p=0,03).Conclusion. A prospective follow-up of 827 patients in the TARGET-VIP registry revealed that 12-month mortality was 4,2%, while more than half of the deaths (54%) were registered in the first 90 days, including 31% — for the first month after discharge from the hospital. The most common events were hospitalizations (17,0%) and acute respiratory viral infections/influenza (26,2%), while the rarest were myocardial infarction (0,73%) and stroke (0,48%). The key factors associated with 12-month mortality in the post-COVID-19 period were older age and intensive care unit stay during the reference hospitalization. A higher readmission rate during the follow-up period was associated with older age, and the prevalence of acute respiratory viral infections /influenza during the follow-up period was associated with younger patients and female sex

Patients with a Combination of Atrial Fibrillation and Chronic Heart Failure in Clinical Practice: Comorbidities, Drug Treatment and Outcomes

Aim. To assess in clinical practice the structure of multimorbidity, cardiovascular pharmacotherapy and outcomes in patients with a combination of atrial fibrillation (AF) and chronic heart failure (CHF) based on prospective registries of patients with cardiovascular diseases (CVD).Materials and Methods. The data of 3795 patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) were analyzed within the registries RECVASA (Ryazan), RECVASA FP (Moscow, Kursk, Tula, Yaroslavl), REGION-PO and REGION-LD (Ryazan), REGION-Moscow, REGATA (Ryazan). The comparison groups consisted of 3016 (79.5%) patients with AF in combination with CHF and 779 (29.5%) patients with AF without CHF. The duration of prospective observation is from 2 to 6 years.Results. Patients with a combination of AF and CHF (n=3016, age was 72.0±10.3 years; 41.8% of men) compared with patients with AF without CHF (n=779, age was 70.3±12.0 years; 43.5% of men) had a higher risk of thromboembolic complications (CHA2DS2-VASc – 4.68±1.59 and 3.10±1.50; p<0.001) and hemorrhagic complications (HAS-BLED – 1.59±0.77 and 1.33±0.76; p<0.05). Patients with a combination of AF and CHF significantly more often (p<0.001) than in the absence of CHF were diagnosed with arterial hypertension (93.9% and 83.8%), coronary heart disease (87.9% and 53,5%), myocardial infarction (28.4% and 14.0%), diabetes mellitus (22.4% and 7.7%), chronic kidney disease (24.8% and 16.2%), as well as respiratory diseases (20.1% and 15.3%; p=0.002). Patients with AF in the presence of CHF, compared with patients without CHF, were more often diagnosed with a permanent form of arrhythmia (49.3% and 32.9%; p<0.001) and less often paroxysmal (22.5% and 46.2%; p<0.001) form  of  arrhythmia.  Ejection  fraction  ≤40%  (9.3%  and  1.2%;  p<0.001),  heart  rate  ≥90/min  (23.7% and 19.3%; p=0.008) and blood pressure ≥140/90 mm Hg (59.9% and 52.2%; p<0.001) were recorded with AF in the presence of CHF more often than in the absence of CHF. The frequency of proper cardiovascular pharmacotherapy was higher, albeit insufficient, in the presence of CHF (64.9%) than in the absence of it (56.1%), but anticoagulants were prescribed less frequently when AF and CHF were combined (38.8% and  49, 0%; p<0.001). The frequency of unreasonable prescription of antiplatelet agents instead of anticoagulants was 52.5% and 33.3% (p<0.001) in the combination of AF, CHF and coronary heart disease, as well as in the combination of AF with coronary heart disease but without CHF. Patients with AF and CHF during the observation period compared with those without CHF had higher mortality from all causes (37.6% and 30.3%; p=0.001), the frequency of non-fatal cerebral stroke (8.2% and 5.4%; p=0.032) and myocardial infarction (4.7% and 2.5%; p=0.036), hospitalizations for CVD (22.8% and 15.5%; p<0.001).Conclusion. Patients with a combination of AF and CHF, compared with the group of patients with AF without CHF, were older, had a higher risk of thromboembolic and hemorrhagic complications, they were more often diagnosed with other concomitant cardiovascular and chronic noncardiac diseases, decreased left ventricular ejection fraction, tachysystole, failure to achieve the target blood pressure level in the presence of arterial hypertension. The frequency of prescribing proper cardiovascular pharmacotherapy was higher, albeit insufficient, in the presence of CHF, while the frequency of prescribing anticoagulants was less. The  incidence of mortality from all causes, the development of non-fatal myocardial infarction   and cerebral stroke, as well as the incidence of hospitalizations for CVDs were higher in AF associated with CHF

Combination of Atrial Fibrillation and Coronary Heart Disease in Patients in Clinical Practice: Comorbidities, Pharmacotherapy and Outcomes (Data from the REСVASA Registries)

Aim. Assess the structure of comorbid conditions, cardiovascular pharmacotherapy and outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and concomitant coronary artery disease (CAD) included in the outpatient and hospital RECVASA registries.Materials and methods. 3169 patients with AF were enrolled in outpatient RECVASA (Ryazan), RECVASA AF-Yaroslavl registries and hospital RECVASA AF (Moscow, Kursk, Tula). 2497 (78.8%) registries of patients with AF had CAD and 703 (28.2%) of them had a previous myocardial infarction (MI).Results. There were 2,497 patients with a combination of AF and CAD (age was 72.2±9.9 years; 43.1% of men; CHA2DS2-VASc – 4.57±1.61 points; HAS-BLED – 1.60±0,75 points), and the group with AF without CAD included 672 patients (age was 66.0±12.3 years; 43.2% of men; CHA2DS2-VASc – 3.26±1.67 points; HAS-BLED – 1,11±0.74 points). Patients with CAD were on average 6.2 years older and had a higher risk of thromboembolic and hemorrhagic complications (p<0.05). 703 patients with a combination of AF and CAD had the previous myocardial infarction (MI; age was 72.3±9.5 years; 55.2% of men; CHA2DS2-VASc – 4.57±1.61; HAS-BLED – 1.65±0.76), and 1794 patients didn't have previous MI (age was 72.2±10.0 years; 38.4% of men; CHA2DS2-VASc – 4.30±1.50; HAS-BLED – 1.58±0.78). The proportion of men was 1.4 times higher among those with the previous MI. Patients with a combination of AF and CAD significantly more often (p <0.0001) than in the absence of CAD received a diagnosis of hypertension (93.8% and 78.6%), chronic heart failure (90.1% and 51.2%), diabetes mellitus (21.4% and 13.8%), chronic kidney disease (24.8% and 17.7%), as well as anemia (7.0% and 3.0%; p=0.001). Patients with and without the previous MI had the only significant difference in the form of a diabetes mellitus higher incidence having the previous MI (27% versus 19.2%, p=0.0008). The frequency of proper cardiovascular pharmacotherapy was insufficient, mainly in the presence of CAD (67.8%) than in its absence (74.5%), especially the prescription of anticoagulants (39.1% and 66.2%; p <0.0001), as well as in the presence of the previous MI (63.3%) than in its absence (74.3%). The presence of CAD and, in particular, the previous MI, was significantly associated with a higher risk of death (risk ratio [RR]=1.58; 95% confidence interval [CI] was 1.33-1.88; p <0.001 and RR=1.59; 95% CI was 1.33-1.90; p <0.001), as well as with a higher risk of developing a combined cardiovascular endpoint (RR=1.88; 95% CI was 1.17-3 , 00; p <0.001 and RR=1.75; 95% CI was 1.44-2.12; p<0.001, respectively).Conclusion. 78.8% of patients from AF registries in 5 regions of Russia were diagnosed with CAD, of which 28.2% had previously suffered myocardial infarction. Patients with a combination of AF and CAD more often than in the absence of CAD had hypertension, chronic heart failure, diabetes, chronic kidney disease and anemia. Patients with the previous MI had higher incidence of diabetes than those without the previous MI. The frequency of proper cardiovascular pharmacotherapy was insufficient, and to a greater extent in the presence of CAD and the previous MI than in their absence. All-cause mortality was recorded in patients with a combination of AF and CAD more often than in the absence of CAD. All-cause mortality and the incidence of nonfatal myocardial infarction were higher in patients with AF and the previous MI than in those without the previous MI. The presence of CAD and, in particular, the previous MI, was significantly associated with a higher risk of death, as well as a higher risk of developing a combined cardiovascular endpoint

ВАЛИДАЦИЯ ДИАГНОСТИЧЕСКОЙ ТОЧНОСТИ АЛГОРИТМА «ИСКУССТВЕННОГО ИНТЕЛЛЕКТА» ДЛЯ ВЫЯВЛЕНИЯ РАССЕЯННОГО СКЛЕРОЗА В УСЛОВИЯХ ГОРОДСКОЙ ПОЛИКЛИНИКИ

The objective of the study is to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of an original artificial intelligence (AI) algorithm for detecting MS in the radiology department of primary (outpatient) hospital.Materials and methods. Depersonalized results of brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) studies performed in the period from August 22, 2019 to September 26, 2019 in 93 patients (42 men (mean age 47,5±15,9 years) and 51 women (mean age 52,3±16,8 years)) were analyzed. All patients signed a voluntary informed consent form. Brain MRIwere carried out on the VANTAGE Atlas 1,5T MRI scanner (Toshiba, Japan) under a standard protocol.Results. All MRI studies were analyzed by AI-algorithm (index-test). It decisions were compared with a  reference test (groundtruth). The sensitivity of the index-test is 100%, specificity — 75,3%, accuracy —  76,3%, negative predictive value — 100%, area under ROC-curve — 0,861. The algorithm reliably sorts out the studies without signs of MS. The algorithmshows sufficient quality and excellent reproducibility of the results on independent data.Conclusion. The developed AI algorithm ensures effective triage of MRI studies in primary care settings, maintaining an optimal index of suspicion in MS.Цель: оценить диагностическую точность оригинального алгоритма выявления РС в условиях отделения лучевой диагностики медицинской организации, оказывающей первичную (амбулаторно-поликлиническую) медицинскую помощь.Материалы и методы. Проведен анализ деперсонализированных результатов МР-исследований головного мозга, выполненных 93 пациентам в период с 22.08.2019 г. по 26.09.2019 г., из которых 42 мужчины (средний возраст 47,5±15,9 лет) и 51 женщина (средний возраст 52,3±16,8 лет); лица европеоидной расы, жители г. Москвы. Все  пациенты подписали добровольное информированное согласие. Исследования  проводились на томографе VANTAGE Atlas (Toshiba, Япония) с индукцией магнитного поля 1,5 Тл по стандартному протоколу.Результаты. Все МР-исследования проанализированы с применением оригинального  алгоритма «искусственного интеллекта» (ИИ). Решения алгоритма (индекс-теста)  сопоставлены с референс-тестом, значения которого приняты за истинный статус  обследуемых лиц. Чувствительность индекс-теста — 100%, специфичность — 75,3%,  точность — 76,3%, прогностическая ценность отрицательного результата — 100%, площадь под характеристической кривой — 0,861. Результаты свидетельствуют о надежном «отсеивании» алгоритмом результатов исследований без признаков РС.  Показано достаточное качество и отличная воспроизводимость результатов работы  алгоритма на независимых данных.Заключение. Разработанный алгоритм ИИ обеспечивает эффективную сортировку МР-исследований в условиях первичного звена здравоохранения с поддержанием оптимального уровня настороженности относительно РС

Artificial intelligence in lung cancer screening: assessment of the diagnostic accuracy of the algorithm analyzing low-dose computed tomography

The diagnostic accuracy of the artificial intelligence algorithm aimed to detect lesions on low-dose computer tomograms has been independently assessed. The dataset formed as part of the lung cancer screening program in Moscow was used. The following indicators have been defined: sensitivity – 0.817%, specificity – 0.925%, accuracy – 0.860%, area under the characteristic curve – 0.930. High accuracy rates demonstrated through the independent assessment indicate a good reproducibility of the results by artificial intelligence using independent data about the population of Mosco

SEASONAL AND MONTHLY CHANGES OF MORTALITY IN RUSSIAN FEDERATION REGIONS WITH DIFFERENT CLIMATE AND GEOGRAPHIC VARIABLES

The mortality general and cardiovascular (CVD) are not the same during the year, as there are seasonal and monthly specifics which are actively studied in European countries.Aim. To study excessive mortality during winter from all causes and CVD in RF regions with different climate and geographic characteristics comparing to European data and to analyze monthly mortality levels.Material and methods. To compare and evaluate the dynamics of excessive winter period mortality in three RF regions: Ivanovskaya, Saratovskaya and Arkhangelskaya regions and to compare with excessive mortality in European countries the calculation performed of the index of excessive mortality during the winter (EMDW). The latter was calculated according to the mortality from all causes and from cardiovascular diseases separately. Calculations for every 12 months included December of the previous year and January-February of the next year. To measure monthly values the mean range of the month was calculated by the absolute quantity of deaths by the period analyzed — absolute mortality rates from all causes and from CVD by every year ranged from 1 to 12 and then the mean value of the range for every month was evaluated.Results. Mean 8-year EMDW in analyzed regions was from 3,5% in Saratovskaya to 6,5% in Ivanovskaya regions; EMDW for CVD was higher than 10% and maximum in Saratovskaya region (14,3%). Mean EMDW in the regions analyzed of RF was significantly lower (p<0,05), than in Europe and significantly lower than in Southern Europe. Reasons for lower EMDW in the regions studied the inhabitants’ adaptation to low temperatures during the winter, inferior part of senile folks in Russia that is more sensitive to winter time lower temperatures and due to central rooms heating. In analysis of monthly mortality rates the leader by the deaths prevalence was January, on the second place was march, which was similar by all causes and by CVD in Ivanovskaya and Saratovskaya regions and slightly differed in Arkhangelskaya region, where on the second place was February. The third by the all cases was may. In Ivanovskaya and Saratovskaya regions median ranges of the third by deaths month from all cases and from CVD were the same, and in Arkhangelskaya they differed. Maximum range value and hence the lowest mortality rate was in July-September.Conclusion. Excessive mortality in winter, measured by EMDW, is 3,5-6,5% by any cause and 12,0-14,0% — by CVD. Until now there is no clear understanding of the mechanisms and determinants for this, however during the XXth century the prominence of this has lowered much. Among the contributions to this loweringduring the winter are good central room heating and immunization against viral infections of the risk groups. Further studies required to analyze regional specifics of excessive mortality during the winter and monthly

FEATURES OF SEASONAL CARDIOVASCULAR MORTALITY IN WINTER IN RUSSIAN REGIONS WITH DIFFERENT CLIMATIC AND GEOGRAPHICAL CHARACTERISTICS

Aim. To study seasonal changes in cardiovascular mortality in winter in Arkhangelsk, Ivanovo and Saratov regions – Russian regions with different climatic and geographical characteristics.Material and methods. Comparison of mortality in Arkhangelsk, Ivanovo and Saratov regions in 2007-2012 in January-March, December and April-November was performed by multivariate analysis of variance. Significance of differences was assessed by t-test of analysis of variance using programme GLM of SAS system.Results. Significantly higher cardiovascular mortality in population of Arkhangelsk (by 12.0%), Ivanovo (by 13.4%) and Saratov (by 11.5%) regions, as well as higher overall death-rate, during January-March, December, compared with April-November (p&lt;0.0001) were found. Cardiovascular mortality decreased from 2007 to 2012 by 32.4% and by 32.9% per year and per January-March, December, respectively (p&lt;0.0001). Higher cardiovascular mortality in the cold months of the year persisted in 2007-2012 and was higher than mortality per whole year by 8-14%. This difference in mortality did not decrease significantly (p&gt;0.05).Conclusion. These findings point out the necessity of elaboration and implementation of the measures to prevent a winter increase in mortality, including the prevention of negative impact on the population of lowtemperature air, seasonal prophylaxis of acute respiratory viral infection, influenza and its complications, pharmacologic and non-pharmacologic prevention of cardio-vascular complications.</p