Determinants of Belgian bank lending intrest rates

This article first reviews the main determinants of bank loans’ interest rates and offers a brief discussion of the impact of capital requirements on interest rate margins. Next, it presents some empirical evidence, first, on the pass-through of the central bank rate to market rates and, subsequently, on the pass-through of market rates to retail interest rates using survey data for Belgian credit institutions. As predicted by economic theory, the size and significance of the pass-through of monetary policy impulses to market rates falls quickly with maturity. However, the long run pass-through remains almost complete for maturities lower or equal to one year. Belgian banks seem to adjust more quickly and more fully their retail interest rates on credit to enterprises than those on credit to households. With the exception of consumer loans, the long-term pass-through proves to be above 80 percent. Finally, this article goes into the first results of the new interest rates survey. Banks with a relatively high degree of capital coverage are found to ask higher lending rates and are probably granting riskier loans. Liquid banks and large banks generally set lower lending rates. Belgian firms and households are facing lending conditions broadly similar to those prevailing in the euro area.Pass-through, Banks, Determinants of lending interest rates

The role of equities in corporate finance in Belgium

Share issues are a significant source of finance for non-financial corporations in Belgium. Between 1995 and 2005, they represented around 32 p.c. of the cumulative new liabilities of non-financial corporations. Share issues are therefore the second most important source of finance, the first being non-bank credit, which accounts for 51 p.c. of the total. Share issues are a much more important source of funding than bank credit and issues of fixed-income securities. Unquoted shares represent the major part of this, namely 27 p.c., mainly because of the high level of foreign direct investment. Quoted shares represented only 5 p.c. of the cumulative new liabilities of non-financial corporations during the period 1995-2005. An empirical analysis of the determinants of the capital structure highlights the fact that quoted companies having more intangible fixed assets are more inclined to opt for equity financing. Conversely, other factors, such as the company’s debt level, size and internal resources have a negative influence on equity financing. The timing of the use of this type of financing depends partly on macroeconomic factors such as real and financial investments of the corporations. The cost of capital may also be regarded as a key determinant of the use of equity financing over time. Substantial issues were recorded during the period 1999-2001 and from mid 2005 onwards. These developments coincided with either a cost of capital well below its long-run average or a movement in the cost of capital which was more favourable than the price of alternative sources of finance. The recent government measure aimed at allowing the deduction of notional interest charges could also give a substantial boost to new share issues.capital structure, corporate finance, equities

The Role of Equities in Corporate Finance in Belgium.

Finance; Belgium;

Developments in private consumption over the past three years

Belgium weathered the 2008-2009 recession relatively well compared to the euro area as a whole and most of its constituent economies. In that context, the article sheds light on the interactions between the general economic situation and private consumption during the recession and in the recent recovery phase. As is generally the case during recessions, private consumption expenditure tended to decline to a lesser degree than general economic activity in Belgium in 2008-2009. The fall in private consumption expenditure turned out to be rather limited, especially when one considers the then plummeting economic activity. The two main avenues through which the crisis affected consumer spending were the erosion of people’s financial assets, and a considerable rise in uncertainty in late 2008 and early 2009. However, these effects faded away during the course of 2009. The resilience of private consumption in Belgium – which is also noticeable when compared internationally – can be related to the resilience of employment, which supported households’ disposable income. In addition, the sound situation of households and firms and the absence of great structural imbalances prior to the crisis supported general economic activity. In the future, maintaining an economic context free of serious imbalances, including a sustainable path for public finances, is crucial to favour a steady development of private consumption, contributing to balanced economic growth, income generation and job creation.Private consumption, households, wealth effect, savings rate

Energy markets and the macroeconomy

The article looks at the energy markets from a macroeconomic perspective. It first describes the main trends in the production and consumption of energy. Belgium is characterised by a high degree of energy dependency, since it no longer has any fossil fuel resources and renewable energy is not yet well developed in the country. Moreover, its economy has a high energy intensity, due to specialisation in energy-intensive sectors and high consumption of energy products by Belgian households. The operation of the energy markets and the implications for the pricing of energy products is examined in a second part. The pass-through of fluctuations in the price of crude oil onto consumer prices of petrol, diesel and heating oil is both fast and full, in Belgium as well as in the neighbouring countries. However, because of the low level of excise duty on diesel and particularly on heating oil, consumer prices charged for these energy products in Belgium are more sensitive to fluctuations in the crude oil price. Also, the Belgian consumer price of gas and electricity reacts much faster than in neighbouring countries to fluctuations in prices on the international markets, since in other euro area countries, prices are adjusted less frequently than in Belgium and in some cases they are still subject to some form of regulation. More generally, despite liberalisation, the effective degree of competition on the gas and electricity markets is still very low, both in Belgium and in the other euro area countries. Finally, the impact of fluctuations in crude oil prices on inflation and economic activity is discussed. In addition to its high energy intensity and strong reactions of its energy consumer prices to oil price fluctuations, the Belgian economy’s sensitivity to oil shocks is heightened by the indexation mechanism it applies, even though the use of the health index partly neutralises the initial shock. However, that additional negative impact can be curbed by constant monitoring of Belgian competitiveness, as prescribed by a 1996 law on the promotion of employment and the safeguarding of competitiveness.energy markets, oil, inflation, pass-through, Belgium

Belgian corporate finance in a European perspective

When analysing corporate finance, it is necessary to take account of various factors which may cause significant disparities between firms, such as their size and their sector of activity. Taking account of the size aspect, by neutralising sectoral disparities, there are few differences between the debt levels of small, medium-sized and large firms. Conversely, the debt structure appears to depend on the firm’s size : small firms are more dependent on bank loans. That is confirmed by the high degree to which they make use of credit facilities. Nonetheless, surveys indicate that access to finance is not a major constraint for SMEs, be they Belgian or European : they perceive access to finance, and more specifically access to bank finance, as relatively easy. In contrast, the financial structure of firms differs widely between sectors, and depends to a great extent on the associated intrinsic activity and the scale of the investments. Sectors with high investment ratios, such as the transport and communication sector or the energy sector, mainly use long-term finance. Ample equity capital enables them to maintain a balanced financial situation. Conversely, highly labour-intensive sectors, such as construction or trade, display much higher debt-to-equity ratios ; their debts are mainly short term and they make extensive use of trade credit. A more detailed analysis of the manufacturing sector also reveals differences of financial structure between firms which are classed as innovative and those which are not. In particular, if the chemical industry is excluded, the firms in the innovative sectors make less use of bank loans and record more short-term debt than firms in non-innovative sectors. That may reflect the lenders’ desire to limit the risk incurred, particularly by using the threat of non-renewal of the loan to encourage the manager to behave efficiently. The qualitative surveys appear to indicate that the financial constraint is felt more by innovative firms than by SMEs in general. That expresses a financing need specific to innovative SMEs. At the early stages in their development, they depend almost exclusively on the entrepreneur’s personal resources and those of his friends and family, and venture capital only takes over in the later stages. Finally, as regards the financing structure, a comparison between Belgian firms and their European counterparts, after neutralising the specific effects of size and sector, indicates that the former issue larger amounts of capital. Abundant intra-group financial flows and a favourable institutional context are conducive to that situation.bank lending, venture capital, corporate finance.

Foreign financial transactions of Belgian non-financial sectors

The open character of the Belgian economy is also reflected in its financial relations with other countries. At the end of 2007, Belgium’s net foreign assets totalled around 44.4 p.c. of GDP. In the past decade, Belgium’s net financial assets have shown a marked increase, against the backdrop of the introduction of the common currency and the progressive financial integration and globalisation. The degree to which the various non-financial sectors have responded to these developments varies greatly between sectors. The public sector is the one which has done most to adjust its financing and seen the biggest rise in the share of the rest of the world in its total debt, namely from 20 p.c. at the end of 1997 to around 46 p.c. at the end of 2007. When the euro was introduced on the financial markets, it was imperative for the Treasury to widen its investment base : appropriate diversification of the corps of Primary Dealers and Recognised Dealers was one of the ways in which it achieved that. Non-financial corporations, which traditionally maintain very close international financial contacts, still saw a steady increase in the share of the rest of the world in their financial transactions between 1997 and 2007 : during that period, in the case of financial liabilities, the figure was up from 24 p.c. at the end of 1997 to over 37 p.c. at the end of 2007 ; for financial assets, the share was up from 28 p.c. to 39 p.c. However, these orders of magnitude are subject to a strong upward influence exerted by the coordination centres based in Belgium, which perform the function of a financial intermediary for the multinational group to which they are attached. In the past decade, there have been frequent exchanges of shareholdings between Belgian and foreign companies, reflecting the process of mergers and acquisitions, and these have also contributed to the growth of direct investment between Belgium and the rest of the world. Another point worth mentioning is that the past decade has brought a strong rise in loans granted by foreign financial institutions as a percentage of total bank lending to Belgian firms : that figure increased from 12 p.c. at the end of 1997 to 35 p.c. at the end of 2007. The share of foreign assets in the household portfolio dropped from 30 p.c. at the end of 1997 to 17 p.c. at the end of 2007. Naturally, that is due partly to the introduction on 1 July 2005 of the European directive on the taxation of savings ; it has now ceased to be possible for individuals to avoid the tax on income from interest-bearing assets held in other countries, and that has ultimately led to the repatriation of those assets. In contrast, in the case of non interest-bearing assets, foreign investment flows increased between 1997 and 2007. Finally, it should be pointed out that the share of the rest of the world in the liabilities of households is still negligible.flow of funds, financial flow

Regulation and competition in the distribution sector in Belgium

While being a key sector in all developed economies, retail trade does actually appear to be one of the reasons for Europe’s lagging behind in potential output growth. One of the reasons for this lag could be regulation. By determining conditions for market access and for carrying out a commercial activity, the regulatory framework may exert some influence on both economic performance and market structure and, ultimately, on the degree of competition. The article assesses the retail trade situation in Belgium along these lines. As far as possible, Belgium’s performance is compared with that of neighbouring countries and the findings are assessed by cross-matching the various sources of information available. First, evidence from international indicators (such as those regularly published by the OECD), as well as from a review of the main legislation governing retail trade in Belgium, tend to suggest that regulation in Belgium is relatively abundant and restrictive for this sector. Operating conditions in particular appear to be more regulated than in neighbouring countries. As regards the retail trade sector’s economic performance, it should be noted that, like most other economic sectors, the retailing business in Belgium still has a higher productivity rate than in the majority of other European countries and even the United States too. However, unlike trends noted in other branches of activity, this favourable position has been gradually eroded over the last ten years. It does actually seem that Belgium’s main problem lies in its inability to improve the efficiency of the production factors being used. However, looking more closely at the food retailing sub-sector, no striking anomalies are noted in the market structure and the degree of competition in Belgium. Even though the overall indicators point to some concentration at national level, local competition – assessed with an original approach applied to detailed data – appears to be quite strong; only a few sales outlets have a dominant position. Moreover, the non-specialised food retail sector has a growing number of big shops, as well as an increasing number of hard discounters and a larger share of generic brand products in traditional retail outlets. Using detailed consumption price data from CityData and Eurostat, this analysis throws up evidence that prices charged by the retail sector are higher in Belgium than in the three neighbouring countries and the euro area as a whole. There have also been signs of a recent deterioration in the differential between prices in Belgian supermarkets and prices charged by German and Dutch supermarkets in particular. Adverse developments in labour costs in Belgium and higher retail business margins can go some way to explaining the trend in price differentials compared to Germany, where hard discounters are more common. Then again, the sharp deterioration in the price differentials between Belgium and the Netherlands recorded in supermarkets can largely be explained by the price war that raged between the major Dutch retail groups from October 2003 to December 2006. Overall, it therefore appears that the actual influence of specific regulatory requirements for the retail trade on the efficiency of the sector, on the degree of competition and, ultimately, on consumer prices needs to be looked at very carefully. On the one hand, simplifying regulations in force in Belgium would no doubt break down the barriers to entry without necessarily impeding other policy objectives. On the other hand, the performance of the retail distribution sector must be examined taking account of the specific features of the economy, such as population density and cultural preferences.retail, regulation, market structure, pricing, productivity

Belgium’s position in world trade

The objective of the article is to give a general overview of the position that Belgium occupies in the world trade stakes and its ability to adjust in response to changes in the international environment. Over the last two decades, world trade has expanded considerably, buoyed up by the rapid growth of new economic centres, the advanced economies generally having seen a drop in their market share. However, the growth in Belgium’s exports has lagged behind the average for twelve European countries going through the same major changes ; and the loss of market share has been higher than the average. A classical econometric analysis of price competitiveness shows up the limited role of relative export prices as a determinant in gains/losses of market share. This finding mainly reflects the fact that prices are largely fixed on international markets, producers cannot adjust their export prices according to the costs that they have to bear. In this context, a reasonable development of production costs, and with stronger reason wage costs, is essential in order to ensure the continuity of export activities. Beyond relative price effects, it is necessary to take into account structural elements in order to explain changes in market share. From this standpoint, it appears that the type of production has a crucial role to play. Faced with competition from emerging economies, Belgium’s external trade performance in the case of standardised products has been well below world demand. On the other hand, high-value-added products or those of a highly innovative nature or with a high research content are the ones that enable it to maintain or improve on its position in global trade. Export activities and innovation share some common features, not least because they are concentrated in the hands of a small number of large enterprises. In view of the high foreign market entry costs, the best performing firms are the ones that tend to be the exporters. However, factors such as the innovative nature of products on offer can of course influence the likelihood of success on foreign markets. Here, innovation efforts by Belgian firms are not creating enough opportunities for marketing new products. Yet, it is most certainly goods with a high value added or highly innovative products that Belgium will be able to count on to ensure sustainable economic development and to support the prosperity of its people.competitiveness, market share, export price, innovation, R&D

End of the crisis in the housing markets ? An international survey

The article examines recent developments in international housing markets and makes an assessment of the current situation. The first section demonstrates that the last upward movement in house prices in advanced economies, that started during the mid-1990s, differed from previous upward phases because of its strength, duration and degree of synchronisation across countries. Low interest rates, financial innovation, relaxed credit conditions and demographic factors stimulated housing demand and led to higher prices and investment. The strongest increases were recorded in the UK, Spain, Ireland and France. Starting around the mid-2000s, housing markets increasingly displayed signs of overheating and the American subprime crisis of 2006 triggered a downward correction in the US housing market. Housing markets elsewhere displayed a similar pattern around the same period. Nevertheless, developments were less synchronised during this downturn than during the upturn, as the fall in house prices seems to be over in some countries while the correction continues in other countries. The degree of over- or undervaluation of recent house prices can be calculated on the basis of some frequently used measures. Taking into account fundamental factors like disposable income, population growth and the very low interest rate level, it appears that current prices in most countries are more or less in line with fundamentals. These simple measures have their limitations, and consequently one should be cautious when interpreting the results. Additionally, several common risk factors (normalisation of interest rates, lower potential growth after the economic crisis, fiscal consolidation) and some country-specific risk factors might hinder a further recovery of housing markets. The recent crisis clearly demonstrated the need for stricter rules and control of the financial sector. Various initiatives have already been taken, and international institutions have also formulated recommendations for housing policy reform and the functioning of residential property and mortgage markets. Subsequently, the European government debt crisis that started in 2010 stimulated initiatives to strengthen economic governance in the European Union. In the new surveillance framework, macroeconomic risks will be monitored more closely and more broadly, and this will include the use of indicators related to the housing sector.house prices, investment in housing, interest rates, financial innovation, demography, valuation, disposable income, United States, United Kingdom, euro area, Belgium