Geography, institutions and development: a review ofthe long-run impacts of climate change

The links between climate change, economic growth and economic development have gained increasing attention over recent years in both the academic and policy literature. However, most of the existing literature has tended to focus on direct, short run effects of climate change on the economy, for example due to extreme weather events and changes in agricultural growing conditions. In this paper we review potential effects of climate change on the prospects for long-run economic development. These effects might operate directly, via the role of geography (including climate) as a fundamental determinant of relative prosperity, or indirectly by modifying the environmental context in which political and economic institutions evolve. We consider potential mechanisms from climate change to long-run economic development that have been relatively neglected to date, including, for instance, effects on the distribution of income and political power. We conclude with some suggestions for areas of future research

JPN Guidelines for the management of acute pancreatitis: epidemiology, etiology, natural history, and outcome predictors in acute pancreatitis

Acute pancreatitis is a common disease with an annual incidence of between 5 and 80 people per 100 000 of the population. The two major etiological factors responsible for acute pancreatitis are alcohol and cholelithiasis (gallstones). The proportion of patients with pancreatitis caused by alcohol or gallstones varies markedly in different countries and regions. The incidence of acute alcoholic pancreatitis is considered to be associated with high alcohol consumption. Although the incidence of alcoholic pancreatitis is much higher in men than in women, there is no difference in sexes in the risk involved after adjusting for alcohol intake. Other risk factors include endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography, surgery, therapeutic drugs, HIV infection, hyperlipidemia, and biliary tract anomalies. Idiopathic acute pancreatitis is defined as acute pancreatitis in which the etiological factor cannot be specified. However, several studies have suggested that this entity includes cases caused by other specific disorders such as microlithiasis. Acute pancreatitis is a potentially fatal disease with an overall mortality of 2.1%–7.8%. The outcome of acute pancreatitis is determined by two factors that reflect the severity of the illness: organ failure and pancreatic necrosis. About half of the deaths in patients with acute pancreatitis occur within the first 1–2 weeks and are mainly attributable to multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS). Depending on patient selection, necrotizing pancreatitis develops in approximately 10%–20% of patients and the mortality is high, ranging from 14% to 25% of these patients. Infected pancreatic necrosis develops in 30%–40% of patients with necrotizing pancreatitis and the incidence of MODS in such patients is high. The recurrence rate of acute pancreatitis is relatively high: almost half the patients with acute alcoholic pancreatitis experience a recurrence. When the gallstones are not treated, the risk of recurrence in gallstone pancreatitis ranges from 32% to 61%. After recovering from acute pancreatitis, about one-third to one-half of acute pancreatitis patients develop functional disorders, such as diabetes mellitus and fatty stool; the incidence of chronic pancreatitis after acute pancreatitis ranges from 3% to 13%. Nevertheless, many reports have shown that most patients who recover from acute pancreatitis regain good general health and return to their usual daily routine. Some authors have emphasized that endocrine function disorders are a common complication after severe acute pancreatitis has been treated by pancreatic resection

Migration, environmental change, and the ‘challenges of governance’

This paper provides a framework for the theme issue by exploring links between environmental change and human migration. We review evidence that demonstrates that millions of people have moved or are likely to move towards and not away from environmental risk and hazard by moving from rural areas to rapidly growing urban areas. Moreover, some people may choose not to move or be unable to move. Environmental change may further erode household resources in such a way that migration becomes less and not more likely, even in the context of quite significant environmental change posing serious threats to the sustainability of livelihoods. This creates the possibility that populations will be trapped in areas that expose them to serious risk. We argue that the links between environmental change, migration, and governance are of significant importance, and directly influence the modes and efficacy of migration governance at different levels

Internal Displacement Due to Disasters in Latin America and the Caribbean

Environmental disasters have been identified as a significant cause of human mobility. Particularly in developing regions, climate change is responsible for rising the frequency and intensity of weather-related disasters in the last decades, thus increasing the number of people who migrate within their countries. This chapter examines the magnitude and duration of internal displacements due to disasters in 18 countries of Latin America and the Caribbean between 2013 and 2015, and analyzes the quality of the Global Internal Displacement Database. Overall, 505 events of disaster were identified, which led to the internal migration of 4,217,737 people. The mean of displaced persons per event was 8351 (SD = 69,755) and the mean duration of the displacement was 11.9 (SD = 40.5) days. The primary reason for internal displacement in the countries examined was hydro-meteorological disaster related to climate change (51%). Results conclude that the Global Internal Displacement Database accurately identifies the starting date of internal displacements, but presents limitations to measure the duration of the displacements during the reference period

Resettlement and relocation options for coastal communities

With a nation highly vulnerable, with a risk index of 28.57% and ranked second worldwide by the World Risk Report to be affected by disasters caused by natural hazards and to the effects of climate change, many people are ramping up plans to address these projected events. As a result, it is a necessity for Tonga to strengthen its response to climate change, continue to be more resilient, and, most importantly, address migration and human rights in the context of climate change (e.g., climigration). Here, a concurrent convergence parallel triangulation design of 460 residents from 5 coastal communities, Kanokupolu, ‘Ahau, Tukutonga, Popua, and Manuka in Tongatapu, Tonga, was used – to provide a better understanding of whether people in these communities needed a resettlement and relocation options or not. The quantitative analysis revealed that based on this sample, people in this chapter would choose Australia and New Zealand as the two most preferred countries for climigration. The same factors were explored qualitatively and found Australia to be the preferment country for climigration. Based on this result, it is recommended that a relocation and/or climigration policy should be adopted for Tonga as part of its resilient Tonga by 2035 and beyond