The significance of bidding, accepting and opponent modeling in automated negotiation

Given the growing interest in automated negotiation, the search for effective strategies has produced a variety of different negotiation agents. Despite their diversity, there is a common structure to their design. A negotiation agent comprises three key components: the bidding strategy, the opponent model and the acceptance criteria. We show that this three-component view of a negotiating architecture not only provides a useful basis for developing such agents but also provides a useful analytical tool. By combining these components in varying ways, we are able to demonstrate the contribution of each component to the overall negotiation result, and thus determine the key contributing components. Moreover, we are able to study the interaction between components and present detailed interaction effects. Furthermore, we find that the bidding strategy in particular is of critical importance to the negotiator's success and far exceeds the importance of opponent preference modeling techniques. Our results contribute to the shaping of a research agenda for negotiating agent design by providing guidelines on how agent developers can spend their time most effectively

Two candidate brown dwarf companions around core helium-burning stars

Hot subdwarf stars of spectral type B (sdBs) are evolved, core helium-burning objects. The formation of those objects is puzzling, because the progenitor star has to lose almost its entire hydrogen envelope in the red-giant phase. Binary interactions have been invoked, but single sdBs exist as well. We report the discovery of two close hot subdwarf binaries with small radial velocity amplitudes. Follow-up photometry revealed reflection effects originating from cool irradiated companions, but no eclipses. The lower mass limits for the companions of CPD-64$^{\circ}$481 ($0.048\,M_{\rm \odot}$) and PHL\,457 ($0.027\,M_{\rm \odot}$) are significantly below the stellar mass limit. Hence they could be brown dwarfs unless the inclination is unfavourable. Two very similar systems have already been reported. The probability that none of them is a brown dwarf is very small, 0.02%. Hence we provide further evidence that substellar companions with masses that low are able to eject a common envelope and form an sdB star. Furthermore, we find that the properties of the observed sample of hot subdwarfs in reflection effect binaries is consistent with a scenario where single sdBs can still be formed via common envelope events, but their low-mass substellar companions do not survive.Comment: accepted to A&

Estimating the effect of healthcare-associated infections on excess length of hospital stay using inverse probability-weighted survival curves

Background: Studies estimating excess length of stay (LOS) attributable to nosocomial infections have failed to address time-varying confounding, likely leading to overestimation of their impact. We present a methodology based on inverse probability–weighted survival curves to address this limitation. Methods: A case study focusing on intensive care unit–acquired bacteremia using data from 2 general intensive care units (ICUs) from 2 London teaching hospitals were used to illustrate the methodology. The area under the curve of a conventional Kaplan-Meier curve applied to the observed data was compared with that of an inverse probability–weighted Kaplan-Meier curve applied after treating bacteremia as censoring events. Weights were based on the daily probability of acquiring bacteremia. The difference between the observed average LOS and the average LOS that would be observed if all bacteremia cases could be prevented was multiplied by the number of admitted patients to obtain the total excess LOS. Results: The estimated total number of extra ICU days caused by 666 bacteremia cases was estimated at 2453 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1803–3103) days. The excess number of days was overestimated when ignoring time-varying confounding (2845 [95% CI, 2276–3415]) or when completely ignoring confounding (2838 [95% CI, 2101–3575]). Conclusions: ICU-acquired bacteremia was associated with a substantial excess LOS. Wider adoption of inverse probability–weighted survival curves or alternative techniques that address time-varying confounding could lead to better informed decision making around nosocomial infections and other time-dependent exposures

social media s impact on the consumer mindset when to use which sentiment extraction tool

Abstract User-generated content provides many opportunities for managers and researchers, but insights are hindered by a lack of consensus on how to extract brand-relevant valence and volume. Marketing studies use different sentiment extraction tools (SETs) based on social media volume, top-down language dictionaries and bottom-up machine learning approaches. This paper compares the explanatory and forecasting power of these methods over several years for daily customer mindset metrics obtained from survey data. For 48 brands in diverse industries, vector autoregressive models show that volume metrics explain the most for brand awareness and purchase intent, while bottom-up SETs excel at explaining brand impression, satisfaction and recommendation. Systematic differences yield contingent advice: the most nuanced version of bottom-up SETs (SVM with Neutral) performs best for the search goods for all consumer mind-set metrics but Purchase Intent for which Volume metrics work best. For experienced goods, Volume outperforms SVM with neutral. As processing time and costs increase when moving from volume to top-down to bottom-up sentiment extraction tools, these conditional findings can help managers decide when more detailed analytics are worth the investment

Plasticity, and Its Limits, in Adult Human Primary Visual Cortex

There is an ongoing debate about whether adult human primary visual cortex (V1) is capable of large-scale cortical reorganization in response to bilateral retinal lesions. Animal models suggest that the visual neural circuitry maintains some plasticity through adulthood, and there are also a few human imaging studies in support this notion. However, the interpretation of these data has been brought into question, because there are factors besides cortical reorganization, such as the presence of sampling bias and/or the unmasking of task-dependent feedback signals from higher level visual areas, that could also explain the results. How reasonable would it be to accept that adult human V1 does not reorganize itself in the face of disease? Here, we discuss new evidence for the hypothesis that adult human V1 is not as capable of reorganization as in animals and juveniles, because in adult humans, cortical reorganization would come with costs that outweigh its benefits. These costs are likely functional and visible in recent experiments on adaptation — a rapid, short-term form of neural plasticity — where they prevent reorganization from being sustained over the long term

Engineering Multiagent Systems - Reflections

This report documents the programme and outcomes of Dagstuhl Seminar 12342 ``Engineering multiagent Systems\u27\u27. The seminar brought together researchers from both academia and industry to identify the potential for and facilitate convergence towards standards for agent technology. As such it was particularly relevant to industrial research. A key objective of the seminar, moreover, has been to establish a road map for engineering multiagent systems. Various research areas have been identified as important topics for a research agenda with a focus on the development of multiagent systems. Among others, these include the integration of agent technology and legacy systems, component-based agent design, standards for tooling, establishing benchmarks for agent technology, and the development of frameworks for coordination and organisation of multiagent systems. This report presents a more detailed discussion of these and other research challenges that were identified. The unique atmosphere of Dagstuhl provided the perfect environment for leading researchers from a wide variety of backgrounds to discuss future directions in programming languages, tools and platforms for multiagent systems, and the road map produced by the seminar will have a timely and decisive impact on the future of this whole area of research

On the Reliability of Cross Correlation Function Lag Determinations in Active Galactic Nuclei

Many AGN exhibit a highly variable luminosity. Some AGN also show a pronounced time delay between variations seen in their optical continuum and in their emission lines. In effect, the emission lines are light echoes of the continuum. This light travel-time delay provides a characteristic radius of the region producing the emission lines. The cross correlation function (CCF) is the standard tool used to measure the time lag between the continuum and line variations. For the few well-sampled AGN, the lag ranges from 1-100 days, depending upon which line is used and the luminosity of the AGN. In the best sampled AGN, NGC 5548, the H_beta lag shows year-to-year changes, ranging from about 8.7 days to about 22.9 days over a span of 8 years. In this paper it is demonstrated that, in the context of AGN variability studies, the lag estimate using the CCF is biased too low and subject to a large variance. Thus the year-to-year changes of the measured lag in NGC 5548 do not necessarily imply changes in the AGN structure. The bias and large variance are consequences of finite duration sampling and the dominance of long timescale trends in the light curves, not due to noise or irregular sampling. Lag estimates can be substantially improved by removing low frequency power from the light curves prior to computing the CCF.Comment: To appear in the PASP, vol 111, 1999 Nov; 37 pages; 10 figure

Stimulus- and Neural-Referred Visual Receptive Field Properties following Hemispherectomy:A Case Study Revisited

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