Assessing Nuclear Proliferation by Using System Dynamics Modeling

The goal of this project is to understand the influence of social and cultural factors on nuclear proliferation. We identified factors that contribute to a country’s motivation to initiate a nuclear weapons program from political science literature, obtained relevant social and cultural information, and developed a system dynamics model. System dynamics is used to understand complex interactive systems with feedback. The modeling process began with the construction of a causal loop diagram, which contains the essential elements that account for nuclear proliferation and relationships between these elements. The relationships between the elements are represented by arrows that are labeled either positively or negatively to show their causal relationship. A positive sign represents a direct relationship and a minus sign represents an indirect or inverse relationship. The causal loop diagram is a mental model used to construct a stock and flow simulation model. This stock and flow model can be quantified with equations that capture the relationships amongst the elements of the system. Through system dynamics we were able to interpret the levels of variables which indicate how the system changes and gives us insight as to how each variable affects proliferation. The software used for our project was VenSim, by Ventana Systems, which enabled us to create a system dynamics model including our causal loop diagram and then place relevant variables into our stock and flow diagram. We are in the process of completing our stock and flow diagram, which will help us to gain a better understanding of the motivations for state–level nuclear proliferation. Proliferation assessment has an immense amount of factors to take into account. Through preliminary simulations of the model we demonstrated the impact of autocratic versus democratic governments on motivation to proliferate which is mediated by the differential levels of integration that results from economic trade. The model allows for expansion and lays the foundation for further investigation

Bathymetric terrain model of the Atlantic margin for marine geological investigations.

Bathymetric terrain models of seafloor morphology are an important component of marine geological investigations. Advances in acquisition and processing technologies of bathymetric data have facilitated the creation of high-resolution bathymetric surfaces that approach the resolution of similar surfaces available for onshore investigations. These bathymetric terrain models provide a detailed representation of the Earth’s subaqueous surface and, when combined with other geophysical and geological datasets, allow for interpretation of modern and ancient geological processes. The purpose of the bathymetric terrain model presented in this report is to provide a high-quality bathymetric surface of the Atlantic margin of the United States that can be used to augment current and future marine geological investigations. The input data for this bathymetric terrain model, covering almost 305,000 square kilometers, were acquired by several sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Geophysical Data Center and the Ocean Exploration Program, the University of New Hampshire, and the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. These data have been edited using hydrographic data processing software to maximize the quality, usability, and cartographic presentation of the combined terrain model

Low Probability Tail Event Analysis and Mitigation in the BPA Control Area

This report investigated the uncertainties with the operations of the power system and their contributions to tail events, especially under high penetration of wind. A Bayesian network model is established to quantify the impact of these uncertainties on system imbalance. The framework is presented for a decision support tool, which can help system operators better estimate the need for balancing reserves and prepare for tail events

Novel insights into host-fungal pathogen interactions derived from live-cell imaging

Acknowledgments The authors acknowledge funding from the Wellcome Trust (080088, 086827, 075470 and 099215) including a Wellcome Trust Strategic Award for Medical Mycology and Fungal Immunology 097377 and FP7-2007–2013 grant agreement HEALTH-F2-2010-260338–ALLFUN to NARG.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Is the postpharyngeal gland of a solitary digger wasp homologous to ants? Evidence from chemistry and physiology

The postpharyngeal gland (PPG) was thought to be restricted to ants where it serves a crucial function in the generation of the colony odour. Recently, head glands that closely resemble the PPG of ants were discovered in females of a solitary digger wasp, the European beewolf. The function of this gland necessarily differs from ants: beewolf females apply the secretion of their PPG onto the bodies of paralysed honeybees that serve as larval provisions in order to delay fungus growth. Since ants and digger wasps are not closely related, the occurrence of this gland in these two taxa might either be due to convergent evolution or it is a homologous organ inherited from a common ancestor. Here we test the hypothesis that the PPGs of both taxa are homologous by comparing characteristics of chemical composition and physiology of the PPG of beewolves and ants. Based on reported characteristics of the PPG content of ants, we tested three predictions that were all met. First, the PPG of beewolves contained mainly long-chain hydrocarbons and very few compounds with functional groups. Second, the composition of hydrocarbons in the beewolf PPG was similar to that of the hemolymph. Taking the structure of the gland epithelium and the huge requirements of beewolf females for gland secretion into account this result suggests that the content of the PPG is also sequestered from the hemolymph in beewolves. Third, the chemical composition of the PPG and the cuticle was similar in beewolves since cuticular hydrocarbons derive either from the hemolymph or the PPG. Taking the considerable morphological similarities into account, our results support the hypothesis of a homologous origin of the PPG in beewolves and ants