Global Ageing and Macroeconomic Consequences of Demographic Uncertainty in a Multi-regional Model.

In this paper, we investigate the impact of demographic uncertainty in a multi-regional general equilibrium, overlapping generations model (INGENUE 2). Specifically, we will consider the level of uncertainty in each of the ten major regions of the world, and their correlation across regions. In order to address these issues, we produce stochastic simulations of the world population for the ten regions until 2050. Then, we will analyse the economic consequences on a path by path basis over the period 2000-2050. These simulations allow us to assess the uncertainty induced into key macro-economic variables, the GDP growth rate and the world interest rate in particular, by uncertain future demographics. We show that the assumptions regarding interregional correlations of forecast errors are important in our model: they have a large impact on the uncertainty of the macroeconomic variables, and it appears that the macroeconomic adjustments can differ substantially if we consider independence or high correlation across the regions. In particular, the macroeconomic behaviour of the agents in the current account/saving problem differs significantly across regions according to the degree of interregional correlation.Computable General Equilibrium Models ; International capital flows ; Life cycle models and saving ; Demographic trends and forecasts.

Épargne et choix de portefeuille des ménages : approches micro et macroéconomiques.

Les comportements d’épargne et d’allocation d’actifs des ménages sont des éléments clés pour le financement de l’économie. La récente crise financière et plus structurellement le vieillissement des populations conduisent les banques centrales, le régulateur et les acteurs des marchés à développer les politiques d’éducation financière du public.Choix de portefeuille, épargne, immobilier, retraites.

"Better Safe than Sorry" - Individual Risk-free Pension Schemes in the European Union - Macroeconomic Benefits, the Mobile Working Citizen's Perspective and Why Nots

Variations between the diverse pension systems in the member states of the European Union hamper labour market mobility, across country borders but also within the countries of the European Union. From a macroeconomic perspective, and in the light of demographic pressure, this paper argues that allowing individual instead of collective pension building would greatly improve labour market flexibility and thus enhance the functioning of the monetary union. I argue that working citizens would benefit, for three reasons, from pension saving in a risk-free savings account. First, citizens would have a clear picture of the accumulation of their own pension savings throughout their working life. Second, they would pay hardly any extra costs and, third, once retired they would not be subject to the whims of government or other pension fund managers. This paper investigates the feasibility of individual pension building under various parameter settings by calculating the pension saved during a working life and the pension dis-saved after retirement. The findings show that there are no reasons why the European Union and individual member states should not allow individual risk-free pension savings accounts. This would have macroeconomic benefits and provide a solid pension provision that can enhance mobility, instead of engaging workers in different mandatory collective pension schemes that exist around in the European Union