S-I-S COMPARTMENTAL MODELING AND PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS OF EBOLA OUTBREAK IN CENTRAL AND WEST AFRICA.

In this work, Ebola epidemic outbreak cases and deaths were modeled using compartmental model of epidemic mathematics and kinetics. Data were obtained from credible internet sources like Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and World Health Organization (WHO) which were used to validate our model, and the results show that it was almost a perfect model for some countries of West Africa but just good enough for Central Africa as the R2 shows. The goodness of fit terms of coefficient of correlation (R2) of the developed model on test data gives excellent validation. For Guinea, R2 is 0.9997 for both cases and deaths test data. For Liberia, R2 is 0.9977 for both cases and deaths test data. For Sierra Leone, R2 is 0.9997 (for cases) and 0.9995 (for deaths data). For Nigeria, R2 is 0.9914 (for cases data) and 0.9979 (for deaths data). For Central Africa, R2 is 0.9343 (for cases data) and 0.9304 (for deaths data). The response plot of the cumulative cases and deaths as well as the monthly cases and deaths between the three worst-hit countries, namely (Liberia, Guinea. Sierra Leone) show very serious interaction since the EVD is spread by bats, gorillas, herbivorous animals that live in the bush and thick forest. We should reduce the rate of contact with the animals and stop eating them especially their carcasses found in the bushes and thickets. These findings can be used in studying future ebola epidemic and pandemic outbreaks by World Health Organization (WHO), Pan American Health Organization (Pan-AHO), Centers for Disease Control (CDC), etc

CHEMICAL COMPOSITION OF THE NEST AND MODELS OF THE METAMOPHIC POLYMORPHISM OF THE MUD DAUBER WASP

The work involves the determination of the chemical composition of the nest and modeling of metamorphors polyphenism of the Mud Dauber wasp. The samples were analyzed at Fugro consultants (Nig.) Ltd; a high standard laboratory with sophisticated equipments, which aided in producing an acceptable result considering the state of the place of analysis.Research showed that wasp generally excretes saliva to the mixture of water and their various building materials which include paper and clay soil. The composition of their saliva was found to contain Phosphorus, Magnesium, Sulphur, Chlorine, Potassium, and Calcium. The result showed that Phenol and Iron were found to have been present in the saliva, while nest showed a decrease in the quantity of potassium in ordinary clay soil. More, so, the models developed with the data obtained from the study of the specie, Brachymenes dyscherus, actually represented the biological and biochemical systems. The methods of analysis used are those stipulated by institutions such as America Public Health Association (APHA), America Society for Testing and Material (ASTM), and Chemical Analysis of Ecological Materials (CAEM)

Curve-Fitting of Bioremediation of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) By Co-Composting Using Roost Manure

In this work, ten polluted sites with oil were obtained from Niger Delta, mixed homogenously with compost manure and sent to FUGRO International Laboratory PortHarcourt Nigeria, for bioremediation experiments and analyses. The 4800g sample was divided into twelve (12) equal parts of 400g for bioremediation; 6 parts for the experiments and 6 parts for the control. Particular ringed PAH was isolatedly tested for bioremediation for each of the five ringed PAHs (1 to 5 rings) and the 800g sample was used for respiration test of compost incubation. It was found that the efficiency of bioremediation increased from one to three rings and decreased exponentially for the rest of the rings, showing that bioremediation is not effective for higher ring PAHs. It was also found that bioremediation yields best (optimum) result between two and three ringed PAHs. The respiration of the compost microorganisms improved during incubation by more than two-third i.e 67.7%. The result of this work can be used in bioremediation studies when trying to isolate or choose a particular ringed PAHs for such bioremediation job

Prediction and Analysis of Variable Parameters of some established models in Batch Beer Fermentation

In this work, established models of renowned scholars in fermentation technology are analytically solved. Fermentation experiments were also performed on the production of ethanol and bi-omass from substrate (grain i.e. malted barley) with time and used to validate the analytical solutions of the scholarly models. The result shows that the mod-els were real and true to life as they gave coefficient of correlation of 99.63%. It is also observed that dur-ing this fermentation, there was serious interaction between substrate concentration and ethanol concen-tration, substrate concentration and biomass concen-tration. From this model, it was found that the yield of ethanol (product) was 79.34%, yield of biomass was 43.8%, initial ethanol before fermentation was 1.45g/lit. Substrate at the beginning, S0= 8.114g/lit. and initial biomass X0 was 0.8098g/lit. This result can be applied in fermentation planning in any brew-ing company of research centers to predict variation of certain parameters