Market Opening, Downstream Access, and Competition in the Market for Mail

Market opening in the postal sector invites competition, but it may also present challenge to financing the universal service obligation (USO) currently in place. USO financing under entry is challenged both by the loss of revenues and scale economies in combination with the affordability constraints on pricing. The incumbent and the entrants would benefit from downstream access as compared to end-to-end competition if the access price is set according to avoided cost. This is due to a better cost allocation between operators. At lower access prices, the incumbent loses margin and therefore incurs losses. Concerning overall welfare implications of downstream access, the simulations reported here yield robustly negative results with bypass. Positive effects can be expected with a worksharing regime and access prices oriented at avoided cost.post, universal service obligation, full market opening, access, liberalization, mail

Forecasting E-Substitution and Mail Demand

Based on historical data from 1980 to 2004 the paper analyzes the main drivers of mail demand and the impact of e-substitution by using time-series techniques. We find strong evidence for e-substitution. In the second part of the paper we provide forecasts for future mail volumes.Regulation, Liberalization, Universal Service, Worksharing

Tendering Universal Service Obligations in Liberalized Network Industries

In the past decades, several countries have introduced reverse auctions for allocating universal service or public mission subsidies in various industries. Examples include urban transport, air transport and telecommunications. Recently, such mechanisms have also been envisioned in liberalized postal markets. Issuing an invitation to tender for obligations in otherwise liberalized markets significantly differs from auctioning off a monopolistic provision of services or goods (competition for the market), as is e.g. the case with spectrum auctions in the telecommunications sector. We discuss the rationale for introducing such a regulatory regime as well as conceptual and practical issues concerning its implementation. It turns out that designing an efficient tender for universal service subsidies in liberalized markets is considerably more difficult than tendering e.g. a monopoly franchise. A first reason is that the cost assessment is more complex in the former case as future competitive market outcomes have to be anticipated; in the case with franchise bidding, at least the number of competitors is given by the tender itself. Hence, revenue effects caused by competitors are easier to calculate. Second, the threat of a winner’s moral hazard requires more detailed ex ante regulations. These raise the social cost of universal service provision. Compared to direct designation of universal services with ex post compensation, tendering causes a series of fundamental concerns and trade-offs that make the application of auctions less attractive than in other sectors.Procurement, Tendering, Reverse Auctions, Universal Service Obligation, Liberalization, Network Industries

The future of the USO - Economic rationale for universal services and implications for a future-oriented USO

Universal service obligations (USO) in the postal sector currently enjoy considerable attention among politicians, practitioners and academics. The primary areas of interest have been the viability, costing and funding of the USO in a completely liberalized market. However, the purpose and the scope of the USO itself have so far not been questioned fundamentally. In this paper we first analyze the possible rationale for USO from an economic point of view. Then, we discuss the impact of converging postal and telecommunications markets on potential alternative means to provide USO in a more efficient way.Universal service, USO, covergence, postal sector

The interaction of universal service costing and financing in the postal sector: A calibrated approach

The financing of universal service provision in the postal sector has traditionally relied on granting the universal service provider a reserved area. Together with growing electronic substitution, current liberalization policies promoting competitive entry may put the traditional universal service at risk. Hence, there is an increased interest in knowing the cost of universal service provision. The third EC postal directive proposes a calculation approach to separately determine the net cost of a universal service obligation and to compensate the universal service provider (USP). This paper discusses the interaction between universal service costing and financing and shows that the EC approach may result in distorted results. It also quantifies the effects based on a model calibration with Swiss data. The results show that separate costing and financing leads to a considerable under-compensation of the USP if there is a compensation fund to which every operator contributes. The USP is over-compensated if it is exempt from contributing to the fund (pay or play mechanism). The problem of under- or overcompensation can be resolved by an integrated computation of the net cost that includes the competitive effects of the financing mechanism. Such an integrated approach results in a fair compensation of the USP.Regulation, Post, Universal service obligation, Financing

Pricing in competitive two-sided mail markets

The paper analyzes optimal pricing strategies in liberalized two-sided mail markets. Our results tell a cautionary tale with respect to applying two-part tariffs in postal markets, especially for delivery into P.O. box es.two-sided markets, pricing, two-part tariffs, P.O. box

Developing Universal Postal Services in Latin America – an Economic Perspective

The paper first analyzes if there is a need to develop universal postal services in developing countries. We conclude that postal services serve vital functions in economies now and for the foreseeable future. We then discuss regulatory remedies that will foster the evolution of universal postal services in developing countries.Developing Countries, Universal Postal Services

Do opening hours and unobserved heterogeneity affect economies of scale and scope in postal outlets?

The purpose of this study is to analyze the cost structure of Swiss Post’s postal outlets. In particular, the idea is to assess economies of scale and scope in post offices and franchised postal agencies. Information on their optimal size and production structure is of importance from the policy-makers’point of view because this hypothetical situation may be a basis for calculation of reimbursements when providing the universal service. Two important novelties are introduced in this study. First, the latent class model accounts for postal outlets with different underlying production technologies, caused by unobserved factors. Second, the cost model includes standby time as an indicator of public service because regulated accessibility and negotiated opening hours that enhance public service frequently lead to opening hours that exceed the time necessary to operate the demand. Overall, this analysis confirms the existence of increasing unexploited economies of scale and scope with falling outputs in the Swiss Post office network. Furthermore, the results for the latent class model point to the existence of unobserved heterogeneity in the industry.economies of scale, economies of scope, postal outlet network, unobserved heterogeneity, latent class model, opening hours, standby time

Calculating the Cost of the Universal Service Obligation: The Need for a Global Approach

The paper presents the basic approaches to calculate the cost of the USO and compares them with the requirements of the 3rd postal directive. We conclude that the profitability cost approach will lead to consistent estimations if it is applied in a global way. We illustrate our findings with an econometric estimation of the net costs of Swiss Post’s obligation to provide a nationwide post office network for postal and financial services. We finally illustrate that the financing mechanism in place must be considered as well as there are important drawbacks on the cost of the USO.USO, net costs, cost of the universal service obligation, financing, Post Office Network, Global Approach

Liberalization and Regulation of the Swiss Letter Market

The paper analyzes the impact of different regulatory models on competition and welfare in the Swiss letter market. We conclude that the US system worksharing yields the best results.Regulation, Liberalization, Universal Service, Worksharing