The IDENTIFY study: the investigation and detection of urological neoplasia in patients referred with suspected urinary tract cancer - a multicentre observational study

Objective To evaluate the contemporary prevalence of urinary tract cancer (bladder cancer, upper tract urothelial cancer [UTUC] and renal cancer) in patients referred to secondary care with haematuria, adjusted for established patient risk markers and geographical variation. Patients and Methods This was an international multicentre prospective observational study. We included patients aged ≥16 years, referred to secondary care with suspected urinary tract cancer. Patients with a known or previous urological malignancy were excluded. We estimated the prevalence of bladder cancer, UTUC, renal cancer and prostate cancer; stratified by age, type of haematuria, sex, and smoking. We used a multivariable mixed-effects logistic regression to adjust cancer prevalence for age, type of haematuria, sex, smoking, hospitals, and countries. Results Of the 11 059 patients assessed for eligibility, 10 896 were included from 110 hospitals across 26 countries. The overall adjusted cancer prevalence (n = 2257) was 28.2% (95% confidence interval [CI] 22.3–34.1), bladder cancer (n = 1951) 24.7% (95% CI 19.1–30.2), UTUC (n = 128) 1.14% (95% CI 0.77–1.52), renal cancer (n = 107) 1.05% (95% CI 0.80–1.29), and prostate cancer (n = 124) 1.75% (95% CI 1.32–2.18). The odds ratios for patient risk markers in the model for all cancers were: age 1.04 (95% CI 1.03–1.05; P < 0.001), visible haematuria 3.47 (95% CI 2.90–4.15; P < 0.001), male sex 1.30 (95% CI 1.14–1.50; P < 0.001), and smoking 2.70 (95% CI 2.30–3.18; P < 0.001). Conclusions A better understanding of cancer prevalence across an international population is required to inform clinical guidelines. We are the first to report urinary tract cancer prevalence across an international population in patients referred to secondary care, adjusted for patient risk markers and geographical variation. Bladder cancer was the most prevalent disease. Visible haematuria was the strongest predictor for urinary tract cancer

Timing of surgery following SARS-CoV-2 infection: an international prospective cohort study

Peri-operative SARS-CoV-2 infection increases postoperative mortality. The aim of this study was to determine the optimal duration of planned delay before surgery in patients who have had SARS-CoV-2 infection. This international, multicentre, prospective cohort study included patients undergoing elective or emergency surgery during October 2020. Surgical patients with pre-operative SARS-CoV-2 infection were compared with those without previous SARS-CoV-2 infection. The primary outcome measure was 30-day postoperative mortality. Logistic regression models were used to calculate adjusted 30-day mortality rates stratified by time from diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection to surgery. Among 140,231 patients (116 countries), 3127 patients (2.2%) had a pre-operative SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis. Adjusted 30-day mortality in patients without SARS-CoV-2 infection was 1.5% (95%CI 1.4-1.5). In patients with a pre-operative SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis, mortality was increased in patients having surgery within 0-2 weeks, 3-4 weeks and 5-6 weeks of the diagnosis (odds ratio (95%CI) 4.1% (3.3-4.8), 3.9% (2.6-5.1) and 3.6% (2.0-5.2), respectively). Surgery performed &gt;= 7 weeks after SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis was associated with a similar mortality risk to baseline (odds ratio (95%CI) 1.5% (0.9-2.1%)). After a &gt;= 7 week delay in undertaking surgery following SARS-CoV-2 infection, patients with ongoing symptoms had a higher mortality than patients whose symptoms had resolved or who had been asymptomatic (6.0% (95%CI 3.2-8.7) vs. 2.4% (95%CI 1.4-3.4) vs. 1.3% (95%CI 0.6-2.0%), respectively). Where possible, surgery should be delayed for at least 7 weeks following SARS-CoV-2 infection. Patients with ongoing symptoms &gt;= 7 weeks from diagnosis may benefit from further delay

Developing a Diagnostic Multivariable Prediction Model for Urinary Tract Cancer in Patients Referred with Haematuria: Results from the IDENTIFY Collaborative Study

377siBackground: Patient factors associated with urinary tract cancer can be used to risk stratify patients referred with haematuria, prioritising those with a higher risk of cancer for prompt investigation. Objective: To develop a prediction model for urinary tract cancer in patients referred with haematuria. Design, setting, and participants: A prospective observational study was conducted in 10 282 patients from 110 hospitals across 26 countries, aged ≥16 yr and referred to secondary care with haematuria. Patients with a known or previous urological malignancy were excluded. Outcome measurements and statistical analysis: The primary outcomes were the presence or absence of urinary tract cancer (bladder cancer, upper tract urothelial cancer [UTUC], and renal cancer). Mixed-effect multivariable logistic regression was performed with site and country as random effects and clinically important patient-level candidate predictors, chosen a priori, as fixed effects. Predictors were selected primarily using clinical reasoning, in addition to backward stepwise selection. Calibration and discrimination were calculated, and bootstrap validation was performed to calculate optimism. Results and limitations: The unadjusted prevalence was 17.2% (n = 1763) for bladder cancer, 1.20% (n = 123) for UTUC, and 1.00% (n = 103) for renal cancer. The final model included predictors of increased risk (visible haematuria, age, smoking history, male sex, and family history) and reduced risk (previous haematuria investigations, urinary tract infection, dysuria/suprapubic pain, anticoagulation, catheter use, and previous pelvic radiotherapy). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the final model was 0.86 (95% confidence interval 0.85-0.87). The model is limited to patients without previous urological malignancy. Conclusions: This cancer prediction model is the first to consider established and novel urinary tract cancer diagnostic markers. It can be used in secondary care for risk stratifying patients and aid the clinician's decision-making process in prioritising patients for investigation. Patient summary: We have developed a tool that uses a person's characteristics to determine the risk of cancer if that person develops blood in the urine (haematuria). This can be used to help prioritise patients for further investigation.noneopenKhadhouri, Sinan; Gallagher, Kevin M.; MacKenzie, Kenneth R.; Shah, Taimur T.; Gao, Chuanyu; Moore, Sacha; Zimmermann, Eleanor F.; Edison, Eric; Jefferies, Matthew; Nambiar, Arjun; Anbarasan, Thineskrishna; Mannas, Miles P.; Lee, Taeweon; Marra, Giancarlo; Gómez Rivas, Juan; Marcq, Gautier; Assmus, Mark A.; Uçar, Taha; Claps, Francesco; Boltri, Matteo; La Montagna, Giuseppe; Burnhope, Tara; Nkwam, Nkwam; Austin, Tomas; Boxall, Nicholas E.; Downey, Alison P.; Sukhu, Troy A.; Antón-Juanilla, Marta; Rai, Sonpreet; Chin, Yew-Fung; Moore, Madeline; Drake, Tamsin; Green, James S.A.; Goulao, Beatriz; MacLennan, Graeme; Nielsen, Matthew; McGrath, John S.; Kasivisvanathan, Veeru; Chaudry, Aasem; Sharma, Abhishek; Bennett, Adam; Ahmad, Adnan; Abroaf, Ahmed; Suliman, Ahmed Musa; Lloyd, Aimee; McKay, Alastair; Wong, Albert; Silva, Alberto; Schneider, Alexandre; MacKay, Alison; Knight, Allen; Grigorakis, Alkiviadis; Bdesha, Amar; Nagle, Amy; Cebola, Ana; Dhanasekaran, Ananda Kumar; Kondža, Andraž; Barcelos, André; Galosi, Andrea Benedetto; Ebur, Andrea; Minervini, Andrea; Russell, Andrew; Webb, Andrew; de Jalón, Ángel García; Desai, Ankit; Czech, Anna Katarzyna; Mainwaring, Anna; Adimonye, Anthony; Das, Arighno; Figueiredo, Arnaldo; Villers, Arnauld; Leminski, Artur; Chippagiri, Arvinda; Lal, Asim Ahmed; Yıldırım, Asıf; Voulgaris, Athanasios Marios; Uzan, Audrey; Oo, Aye Moh Moh; Younis, Ayman; Zelhof, Bachar; Mukhtar, Bashir; Ayres, Ben; Challacombe, Ben; Sherwood, Benedict; Ristau, Benjamin; Lai, Billy; Nellensteijn, Brechtje; Schreiter, Brielle; Trombetta, Carlo; Dowling, Catherine; Hobbs, Catherine; Benitez, Cayo Augusto Estigarribia; Lebacle, Cédric; Ho, Cherrie Wing Yin; Ng, Chi-Fai; Mount, Chloe; Lam, Chon Meng; Blick, Chris; Brown, Christian; Gallegos, Christopher; Higgs, Claire; Browne, Clíodhna; McCann, Conor; Plaza Alonso, Cristina; Beder, Daniel; Cohen, Daniel; Gordon, Daniel; Wilby, Daniel; Gordon, Danny; Hrouda, David; Lau, David Hua Wu; Karsza, Dávid; Mak, David; Martin-Way, David; Suthaharan, Denula; Patel, Dhruv; Carrion, Diego M; Nyanhongo, Donald; Bass, Edward; Mains, Edward; Chau, Edwin; Canelon Castillo, Elba; Day, Elizabeth; Desouky, Elsayed; Gaines, Emily; Papworth, Emma; Yuruk, Emrah; Kilic, Enes; Dinneen, Eoin; Palagonia, Erika; Xylinas, Evanguelos; Khawaja, Faizan; Cimarra, Fernando; Bardet, Florian; Kum, Francesca; Peters, Francesca; Kovács, Gábor; Tanasescu, Geroge; Hellawell, Giles; Tasso, Giovanni; Lam, Gitte; La Montagna, Giuseppe; Pizzuto, Giuseppe; Lenart, Gordan; MacLennan, Graeme; Özgür, Günal; Bi, Hai; Lyons, Hannah; Warren, Hannah; Ahmed, Hashim; Simpson, Helen; Burden, Helena; Gresty, Helena; Rios Pita, Hernado; Clarke, Holly; Serag, Hosam; Kynaston, Howard; Crawford-Smith, Hugh; Mostafid, Hugh; Otaola-Arca, Hugo; Koo, Hui Fen; Ibrahim, Ibrahim; Ouzaid, Idir; Puche-Sanz, Ignacio; Tomašković, Igor; Tinay, Ilker; Sahibzada, Iqbal; Thangasamy, Isaac; Cadena, Iván Revelo; Irani, Jacques; Udzik, Jakub; Brittain, James; Catto, James; Green, James; Tweedle, James; Hernando, Jamie Borrego; Leask, Jamie; Kalsi, Jas; Frankel, Jason; Toniolo, Jason; Raman, Jay D.; Courcier, Jean; Kumaradeevan, Jeevan; Clark, Jennifer; Jones, Jennifer; Teoh, Jeremy Yuen-Chun; Iacovou, John; Kelly, John; Selph, John P.; Aning, Jonathan; Deeks, Jon; Cobley, Jonathan; Olivier, Jonathan; Maw, Jonny; Herranz-Yagüe, José Antonio; Nolazco, Jose Ignacio; Cózar-Olmo, Jose Manuel; Bagley, Joseph; Jelski, Joseph; Norris, Joseph; Testa, Joseph; Meeks, Joshua; Hernandez, Juan; Vásquez, Juan Luis; Randhawa, Karen; Dhera, Karishma; Gronostaj, Katarzyna; Houlton, Kathleen; Lehman, Kathleen; Gillams, Kathryn; Adasonla, Kelvin; Brown, Kevin; Murtagh, Kevin; Mistry, Kiki; Davenport, Kim; Kitamura, Kosuke; Derbyshire, Laura; Clarke, Laurence; Morton, Lawrie; Martinez, Levin; Goldsmith, Louise; Paramore, Louise; Cormier, Luc; Dell'Atti, Lucio; Simmons, Lucy; Martinez-Piñeiro, Luis; Rico, Luis; Chan, Luke; Forster, Luke; Ma, Lulin; Moore, Madeline; Gallego, Maria Camacho; Freire, Maria José; Emberton, Mark; Feneley, Mark; Antón-Juanilla, Marta; Rivero, Marta Viridiana Muñoz; Pirša, Matea; Tallè, Matteo; Crockett, Matthew; Liew, Matthew; Trail, Matthew; Peters, Max; Cooper, Meghan; Kulkarni, Meghana; Ager, Michael; He, Ming; Li, Mo; Omran Breish, Mohamed; Tarin, Mohamed; Aldiwani, Mohammed; Matanhelia, Mudit; Pasha, Muhammad; Akalın, Mustafa Kaan; Abdullah, Nasreen; Hale, Nathan; Gadiyar, Neha; Kocher, Neil; Bullock, Nicholas; Campain, Nicholas; Pavan, Nicola; Al-Ibraheem, Nihad; Bhatt, Nikita; Bedi, Nishant; Shrotri, Nitin; Lobo, Niyati; Balderas, Olga; Kouli, Omar; Capoun, Otakar; Oteo Manjavacas, Pablo; Gontero, Paolo; Mariappan, Paramananthan; Marchiñena, Patricio Garcia; Erotocritou, Paul; Sweeney, Paul; Planelles, Paula; Acher, Peter; Black, Peter C.; Osei-Bonsu, Peter K; Østergren, Peter; Smith, Peter; Willemse, Peter-Paul Michiel; Chlosta, Piotr L.; Ul Ain, Qurrat; Barratt, Rachel; Esler, Rachel; Khalid, Raihan; Hsu, Ray; Stamirowski, Remigiusz; Mangat, Reshma; Cruz, Ricardo; Ellis, Ricky; Adams, Robert; Hessell, Robert; Oomen, Robert J.A.; McConkey, Robert; Ritchie, Robert; Jarimba, Roberto; Chahal, Rohit; Andres, Rosado Mario; Hawkins, Rosalyn; David, Rotimi; Manecksha, Rustom P.; Agrawal, Sachin; Hamid, Syed Sami; Deem, Samuel; Goonewardene, Sanchia; Swami, Satchi Kuchibhotla; Hori, Satoshi; Khan, Shahid; Mohammud Inder, Shakeel; Sangaralingam, Shanthi; Marathe, Shekhar; Raveenthiran, Sheliyan; Horie, Shigeo; Sengupta, Shomik; Parson, Sian; Parker, Sidney; Hawlina, Simon; Williams, Simon; Mazzoli, Simone; Grzegorz Kata, Slawomir; Pinheiro Lopes, Sofia; Ramos, Sónia; Rai, Sonpreet; Rintoul-Hoad, Sophie; O'Meara, Sorcha; Morris, Steve; Turner, Stacey; Venturini, Stefano; Almpanis, Stephanos; Joniau, Steven; Jain, Sunjay; Mallett, Susan; Nikles, Sven; Shahzad, null; Yan, Sylvia; Lee, Taeweon; Uçar, Taha; Drake, Tamsin; Toma, Tarq; Cabañuz Plo, Teresa; Bonnin, Thierry; Muilwijk, Tim; Wollin, Tim; Chu, Timothy Shun Man; Appanna, Timson; Brophy, Tom; Ellul, Tom; Austin, Tomas; Smrkolj, Tomaž; Rowe, Tracey; Sukhu, Troy; Patel, Trushar; Garg, Tullika; Çaşkurlu, Turhan; Bele, Uros; Haroon, Usman; Crespo-Atín, Víctor; Parejo Cortes, Victor; Capapé Poves, Victoria; Gnanapragasam, Vincent; Gauhar, Vineet; During, Vinnie; Kumar, Vivek; Fiala, Vojtech; Mahmalji, Wasim; Lam, Wayne; Fung Chin, Yew; Filtekin, Yigit; Chyn Phan, Yih; Ibrahim, Youssed; Glaser, Zachary A; Abiddin, Zainal Adwin; Qin, Zijian; Zotter, Zsuzsanna; Zainuddin, ZulkifliKhadhouri, Sinan; Gallagher, Kevin M.; Mackenzie, Kenneth R.; Shah, Taimur T.; Gao, Chuanyu; Moore, Sacha; Zimmermann, Eleanor F.; Edison, Eric; Jefferies, Matthew; Nambiar, Arjun; Anbarasan, Thineskrishna; Mannas, Miles P.; Lee, Taeweon; Marra, Giancarlo; Gómez Rivas, Juan; Marcq, Gautier; Assmus, Mark A.; Uçar, Taha; Claps, Francesco; Boltri, Matteo; La Montagna, Giuseppe; Burnhope, Tara; Nkwam, Nkwam; Austin, Tomas; Boxall, Nicholas E.; Downey, Alison P.; Sukhu, Troy A.; Antón-Juanilla, Marta; Rai, Sonpreet; Chin, Yew-Fung; Moore, Madeline; Drake, Tamsin; Green, James S. A.; Goulao, Beatriz; Maclennan, Graeme; Nielsen, Matthew; Mcgrath, John S.; Kasivisvanathan, Veeru; Chaudry, Aasem; Sharma, Abhishek; Bennett, Adam; Ahmad, Adnan; Abroaf, Ahmed; Suliman, Ahmed Musa; Lloyd, Aimee; Mckay, Alastair; Wong, Albert; Silva, Alberto; Schneider, Alexandre; Mackay, Alison; Knight, Allen; Grigorakis, Alkiviadis; Bdesha, Amar; Nagle, Amy; Cebola, Ana; Dhanasekaran, Ananda Kumar; Kondža, Andraž; Barcelos, André; Galosi, Andrea Benedetto; Ebur, Andrea; Minervini, Andrea; Russell, Andrew; Webb, Andrew; de Jalón, Ángel García; Desai, Ankit; Czech, Anna Katarzyna; Mainwaring, Anna; Adimonye, Anthony; Das, Arighno; Figueiredo, Arnaldo; Villers, Arnauld; Leminski, Artur; Chippagiri, Arvinda; Lal, Asim Ahmed; Yıldırım, Asıf; Voulgaris, Athanasios Marios; Uzan, Audrey; Oo, Aye Moh Moh; Younis, Ayman; Zelhof, Bachar; Mukhtar, Bashir; Ayres, Ben; Challacombe, Ben; Sherwood, Benedict; Ristau, Benjamin; Lai, Billy; Nellensteijn, Brechtje; Schreiter, Brielle; Trombetta, Carlo; Dowling, Catherine; Hobbs, Catherine; Benitez, Cayo Augusto Estigarribia; Lebacle, Cédric; Ho, Cherrie Wing Yin; Ng, Chi-Fai; Mount, Chloe; Lam, Chon Meng; Blick, Chris; Brown, Christian; Gallegos, Christopher; Higgs, Claire; Browne, Clíodhna; Mccann, Conor; Plaza Alonso, Cristina; Beder, Daniel; Cohen, Daniel; Gordon, Daniel; Wilby, Daniel; Gordon, Danny; Hrouda, David; Lau, David Hua Wu; Karsza, Dávid; Mak, David; Martin-Way, David; Suthaharan, Denula; Patel, Dhruv; Carrion, Diego M; Nyanhongo, Donald; Bass, Edward; Mains, Edward; Chau, Edwin; Canelon Castillo, Elba; Day, Elizabeth; Desouky, Elsayed; Gaines, Emily; Papworth, Emma; Yuruk, Emrah; Kilic, Enes; Dinneen, Eoin; Palagonia, Erika; Xylinas, Evanguelos; Khawaja, Faizan; Cimarra, Fernando; Bardet, Florian; Kum, Francesca; Peters, Francesca; Kovács, Gábor; Tanasescu, Geroge; Hellawell, Giles; Tasso, Giovanni; Lam, Gitte; La Montagna, Giuseppe; Pizzuto, Giuseppe; Lenart, Gordan; Maclennan, Graeme; Özgür, Günal; Bi, Hai; Lyons, Hannah; Warren, Hannah; Ahmed, Hashim; Simpson, Helen; Burden, Helena; Gresty, Helena; Rios Pita, Hernado; Clarke, Holly; Serag, Hosam; Kynaston, Howard; Crawford-Smith, Hugh; Mostafid, Hugh; Otaola-Arca, Hugo; Koo, Hui Fen; Ibrahim, Ibrahim; Ouzaid, Idir; Puche-Sanz, Ignacio; Tomašković, Igor; Tinay, Ilker; Sahibzada, Iqbal; Thangasamy, Isaac; Cadena, Iván Revelo; Irani, Jacques; Udzik, Jakub; Brittain, James; Catto, James; Green, James; Tweedle, James; Hernando, Jamie Borrego; Leask, Jamie; Kalsi, Jas; Frankel, Jason; Toniolo, Jason; Raman, Jay D.; Courcier, Jean; Kumaradeevan, Jeevan; Clark, Jennifer; Jones, Jennifer; Teoh, Jeremy Yuen-Chun; Iacovou, John; Kelly, John; Selph, John P.; Aning, Jonathan; Deeks, Jon; Cobley, Jonathan; Olivier, Jonathan; Maw, Jonny; Herranz-Yagüe, José Antonio; Nolazco, Jose Ignacio; Cózar-Olmo, Jose Manuel; Bagley, Joseph; Jelski, Joseph; Norris, Joseph; Testa, Joseph; Meeks, Joshua; Hernandez, Juan; Vásquez, Juan Luis; Randhawa, Karen; Dhera, Karishma; Gronostaj, Katarzyna; Houlton, Kathleen; Lehman, Kathleen; Gillams, Kathryn; Adasonla, Kelvin; Brown, Kevin; Murtagh, Kevin; Mistry, Kiki; Davenport, Kim; Kitamura, Kosuke; Derbyshire, Laura; Clarke, Laurence; Morton, Lawrie; Martinez, Levin; Goldsmith, Louise; Paramore, Louise; Cormier, Luc; Dell'Atti, Lucio; Simmons, Lucy; Martinez-Piñeiro, Luis; Rico, Luis; Chan, Luke; Forster, Luke; Ma, Lulin; Moore, Madeline; Gallego, Maria Camacho; Freire, Maria José; Emberton, Mark; Feneley, Mark; Antón-Juanilla, Marta; Rivero, Marta Viridiana Muñoz; Pirša, Matea; Tallè, Matteo; Crockett, Matthew; Liew, Matthew; Trail, Matthew; Peters, Max; Cooper, Meghan; Kulkarni, Meghana; Ager, Michael; He, Ming; Li, Mo; Omran Breish, Mohamed; Tarin, Mohamed; Aldiwani, Mohammed; Matanhelia, Mudit; Pasha, Muhammad; Akalın, Mustafa Kaan; Abdullah, Nasreen; Hale, Nathan; Gadiyar, Neha; Kocher, Neil; Bullock, Nicholas; Campain, Nicholas; Pavan, Nicola; Al-Ibraheem, Nihad; Bhatt, Nikita; Bedi, Nishant; Shrotri, Nitin; Lobo, Niyati; Balderas, Olga; Kouli, Omar; Capoun, Otakar; Oteo Manjavacas, Pablo; Gontero, Paolo; Mariappan, Paramananthan; Marchiñena, Patricio Garcia; Erotocritou, Paul; Sweeney, Paul; Planelles, Paula; Acher, Peter; Black, Peter C.; Osei-Bonsu, Peter K; Østergren, Peter; Smith, Peter; Willemse, Peter-Paul Michiel; Chlosta, Piotr L.; Ul Ain, Qurrat; Barratt, Rachel; Esler, Rachel; Khalid, Raihan; Hsu, Ray; Stamirowski, Remigiusz; Mangat, Reshma; Cruz, Ricardo; Ellis, Ricky; Adams, Robert; Hessell, Robert; Oomen, Robert J. A.; Mcconkey, Robert; Ritchie, Robert; Jarimba, Roberto; Chahal, Rohit; Andres, Rosado Mario; Hawkins, Rosalyn; David, Rotimi; Manecksha, Rustom P.; Agrawal, Sachin; Hamid, Syed Sami; Deem, Samuel; Goonewardene, Sanchia; Swami, Satchi Kuchibhotla; Hori, Satoshi; Khan, Shahid; Mohammud Inder, Shakeel; Sangaralingam, Shanthi; Marathe, Shekhar; Raveenthiran, Sheliyan; Horie, Shigeo; Sengupta, Shomik; Parson, Sian; Parker, Sidney; Hawlina, Simon; Williams, Simon; Mazzoli, Simone; Grzegorz Kata, Slawomir; Pinheiro Lopes, Sofia; Ramos, Sónia; Rai, Sonpreet; Rintoul-Hoad, Sophie; O'Meara, Sorcha; Morris, Steve; Turner, Stacey; Venturini, Stefano; Almpanis, Stephanos; Joniau, Steven; Jain, Sunjay; Mallett, Susan; Nikles, Sven; Shahzad, Null; Yan, Sylvia; Lee, Taeweon; Uçar, Taha; Drake, Tamsin; Toma, Tarq; Cabañuz Plo, Teresa; Bonnin, Thierry; Muilwijk, Tim; Wollin, Tim; Chu, Timothy Shun Man; Appanna, Timson; Brophy, Tom; Ellul, Tom; Austin, Tomas; Smrkolj, Tomaž; Rowe, Tracey; Sukhu, Troy; Patel, Trushar; Garg, Tullika; Çaşkurlu, Turhan; Bele, Uros; Haroon, Usman; Crespo-Atín, Víctor; Parejo Cortes, Victor; Capapé Poves, Victoria; Gnanapragasam, Vincent; Gauhar, Vineet; During, Vinnie; Kumar, Vivek; Fiala, Vojtech; Mahmalji, Wasim; Lam, Wayne; Fung Chin, Yew; Filtekin, Yigit; Chyn Phan, Yih; Ibrahim, Youssed; Glaser, Zachary A; Abiddin, Zainal Adwin; Qin, Zijian; Zotter, Zsuzsanna; Zainuddin, Zulkifl

Outcomes and Their State-level Variation in Patients Undergoing Surgery With Perioperative SARS-CoV-2 Infection in the USA. A Prospective Multicenter Study

Objective: To report the 30-day outcomes of patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection undergoing surgery in the USA. Background: Uncertainty regarding the postoperative risks of patients with SARS-CoV-2 exists. Methods: As part of the COVIDSurg multicenter study, all patients aged ≥17 years undergoing surgery between January 1 and June 30, 2020 with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection in 70 hospitals across 27 states were included. The primary outcomes were 30-day mortality and pulmonary complications. Multivariable analyses (adjusting for demographics, comorbidities, and procedure characteristics) were performed to identify predictors of mortality. Results: A total of 1581 patients were included; more than half of them were males (n = 822, 52.0%) and older than 50 years (n = 835, 52.8%). Most procedures (n = 1261, 79.8%) were emergent, and laparotomies (n = 538, 34.1%). The mortality and pulmonary complication rates were 11.0 and 39.5%, respectively. Independent predictors of mortality included age ≥70 years (odds ratio 2.46, 95% confidence interval [1.65-3.69]), male sex (2.26 [1.53-3.35]), ASA grades 3-5 (3.08 [1.60-5.95]), emergent surgery (2.44 [1.31-4.54]), malignancy (2.97 [1.58-5.57]), respiratory comorbidities (2.08 [1.30-3.32]), and higher Revised Cardiac Risk Index (1.20 [1.02-1.41]). While statewide elective cancelation orders were not associated with a lower mortality, a sub-analysis showed it to be associated with lower mortality in those who underwent elective surgery (0.14 [0.03-0.61]). Conclusions: Patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection have a significantly high risk for postoperative complications, especially elderly males. Postponing elective surgery and adopting non-operative management, when reasonable, should be considered in the USA during the pandemic peaks

Effects of pre-operative isolation on postoperative pulmonary complications after elective surgery: an international prospective cohort study an international prospective cohort study

We aimed to determine the impact of pre-operative isolation on postoperative pulmonary complications after elective surgery during the global SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. We performed an international prospective cohort study including patients undergoing elective surgery in October 2020. Isolation was defined as the period before surgery during which patients did not leave their house or receive visitors from outside their household. The primary outcome was postoperative pulmonary complications, adjusted in multivariable models for measured confounders. Pre-defined sub-group analyses were performed for the primary outcome. A total of 96,454 patients from 114 countries were included and overall, 26,948 (27.9%) patients isolated before surgery. Postoperative pulmonary complications were recorded in 1947 (2.0%) patients of which 227 (11.7%) were associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Patients who isolated pre-operatively were older, had more respiratory comorbidities and were more commonly from areas of high SARS-CoV-2 incidence and high-income countries. Although the overall rates of postoperative pulmonary complications were similar in those that isolated and those that did not (2.1% vs 2.0%, respectively), isolation was associated with higher rates of postoperative pulmonary complications after adjustment (adjusted OR 1.20, 95%CI 1.05–1.36, p = 0.005). Sensitivity analyses revealed no further differences when patients were categorised by: pre-operative testing; use of COVID-19-free pathways; or community SARS-CoV-2 prevalence. The rate of postoperative pulmonary complications increased with periods of isolation longer than 3 days, with an OR (95%CI) at 4–7 days or ≥ 8 days of 1.25 (1.04–1.48), p = 0.015 and 1.31 (1.11–1.55), p = 0.001, respectively. Isolation before elective surgery might be associated with a small but clinically important increased risk of postoperative pulmonary complications. Longer periods of isolation showed no reduction in the risk of postoperative pulmonary complications. These findings have significant implications for global provision of elective surgical care. We aimed to determine the impact of pre-operative isolation on postoperative pulmonary complications after elective surgery during the global SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. We performed an international prospective cohort study including patients undergoing elective surgery in October 2020. Isolation was defined as the period before surgery during which patients did not leave their house or receive visitors from outside their household. The primary outcome was postoperative pulmonary complications, adjusted in multivariable models for measured confounders. Pre-defined sub-group analyses were performed for the primary outcome. A total of 96,454 patients from 114 countries were included and overall, 26,948 (27.9%) patients isolated before surgery. Postoperative pulmonary complications were recorded in 1947 (2.0%) patients of which 227 (11.7%) were associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Patients who isolated pre-operatively were older, had more respiratory comorbidities and were more commonly from areas of high SARS-CoV-2 incidence and high-income countries. Although the overall rates of postoperative pulmonary complications were similar in those that isolated and those that did not (2.1% vs 2.0%, respectively), isolation was associated with higher rates of postoperative pulmonary complications after adjustment (adjusted OR 1.20, 95%CI 1.05–1.36, p = 0.005). Sensitivity analyses revealed no further differences when patients were categorised by: pre-operative testing; use of COVID-19-free pathways; or community SARS-CoV-2 prevalence. The rate of postoperative pulmonary complications increased with periods of isolation longer than 3 days, with an OR (95%CI) at 4–7 days or ≥ 8 days of 1.25 (1.04–1.48), p = 0.015 and 1.31 (1.11–1.55), p = 0.001, respectively. Isolation before elective surgery might be associated with a small but clinically important increased risk of postoperative pulmonary complications. Longer periods of isolation showed no reduction in the risk of postoperative pulmonary complications. These findings have significant implications for global provision of elective surgical care