How to Determine the Probability of the Higgs Boson Detection

The Higgs boson is the most important, though yet undiscovered ingredient of the standard model of particle physics. Its detection is therefore one of the most important goals of high energy physics that can guide future research in theoretical physics. Enormous efforts have been undertaken to prove the existence of the Higgs boson, and the physics community is excitedly awaiting the restart of the Large Hadron Collider at CERN. But how sure can we be that the Higgs exits at all? The German philosopher Immanuel Kant recommended betting at such controversial questions, and Stephen Hawking announced a $100 bet against the Higgs. But seriously, online prediction markets, which are a generalized form of betting, do provide the best possible probability estimates for future events. It is proposed that the scientific community uses this platforms for evaluation. See also an online description www.Bet-On-The-Higgs.com.Comment: 4 pages PdfLaTeX, 2 figure

Immanuel Kant on Supersymmetry: A Practical Evaluation

A short review of the motivations for supersymmetry in astrophysics and particle physics is given. Despite the amount of theoretical research conducted in the past decades, no observational evidence for supersymmetry has yet been found. While a large part of the community is expecting supersymmetry to be discovered in the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), some of the basic arguments in favor are disputed here. Since it is not excluded that the author's view may be biased by his research, he proposes a bet on the discovery of supersymmetric particles: According to the philosopher Immanuel Kant, the bet marks the difference between persuasion and conviction.Comment: 4 pages pdfLaTe