A Summary of Fault Recurrence and Strain Rates in the Vicinity of the Hanford Site--Topical Report

This document is one in a series of topical reports compiled by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to summarize technical information on selected topics important to the performance of a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of the Hanford Site. The purpose of this report is to summarize available data and analyses relevant to fault recurrence and strain rates within the Yakima Fold Belt. Strain rates have met with contention in the expert community and may have a significant potential for impact on the seismic hazard estimate at the Hanford Site. This report identifies the alternative conceptual models relevant to this technical issue and the arguments and data that support those models. It provides a brief description of the technical issue and principal uncertainties; a general overview on the nature of the technical issue, along with alternative conceptual models, supporting arguments and information, and uncertainties; and finally, suggests some prospective approaches to reducing uncertainties about earthquake recurrence rates for the Yakima Fold Belt

A Summary of Coupled, Uncoupled, and Hybrid Tectonic Models for the Yakima Fold Belt--Topical Report

This document is one in a series of topical reports compiled by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to summarize technical information on selected topics important to the performance of a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of the Hanford Site. The purpose of this report is to summarize the range of opinions and supporting information expressed by the expert community regarding whether a coupled or uncoupled model, or a combination of both, best represents structures in the Yakima Fold Belt. This issue was assessed to have a high level of contention with up to moderate potential for impact on the hazard estimate. This report defines the alternative conceptual models relevant to this technical issue and the arguments and data that support those models. It provides a brief description of the technical issue and principal uncertainties; a general overview on the nature of the technical issue, along with alternative conceptual models, supporting arguments and information, and uncertainties; and finally, suggests some possible approaches for reducing uncertainties regarding this issue

Robustness of RISMC Insights under Alternative Aleatory/Epistemic Uncertainty Classifications: Draft Report under the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway of the DOE Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program

The Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) pathway is a set of activities defined under the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program. The overarching objective of RISMC is to support plant life-extension decision-making by providing a state-of-knowledge characterization of safety margins in key systems, structures, and components (SSCs). A technical challenge at the core of this effort is to establish the conceptual and technical feasibility of analyzing safety margin in a risk-informed way, which, unlike conventionally defined deterministic margin analysis, would be founded on probabilistic characterizations of uncertainty in SSC performance. In the context of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) technology, there has arisen a general consensus about the distinctive roles of two types of uncertainty: aleatory and epistemic, where the former represents irreducible, random variability inherent in a system, whereas the latter represents a state of knowledge uncertainty on the part of the analyst about the system which is, in principle, reducible through further research. While there is often some ambiguity about how any one contributing uncertainty in an analysis should be classified, there has nevertheless emerged a broad consensus on the meanings of these uncertainty types in the PRA setting. However, while RISMC methodology shares some features with conventional PRA, it will nevertheless be a distinctive methodology set. Therefore, the paradigms for classification of uncertainty in the PRA setting may not fully port to the RISMC environment. Yet the notion of risk-informed margin is based on the characterization of uncertainty, and it is therefore critical to establish a common understanding of uncertainty in the RISMC setting

Identification and Prioritization of Analysis Cases for Marine and Hydrokinetic Energy Risk Screening

In this report we describe the development of the Environmental Risk Evaluation System (ERES), a risk-informed analytical process for estimating the environmental risks associated with the construction and operation of marine and hydrokinetic energy generation projects. The development process consists of two main phases of analysis. In the first phase, preliminary risk analyses will take the form of screening studies in which key environmental impacts and the uncertainties that create risk are identified, leading to a better-focused characterization of the relevant environmental effects. Existence of critical data gaps will suggest areas in which specific modeling and/or data collection activities should take place. In the second phase, more detailed quantitative risk analyses will be conducted, with residual uncertainties providing the basis for recommending risk mitigation and monitoring activities. We also describe the process used for selecting three cases for fiscal year 2010 risk screening analysis using the ERES. A case is defined as a specific technology deployed in a particular location involving certain environmental receptors specific to that location. The three cases selected satisfy a number of desirable criteria: 1) they correspond to real projects whose deployment is likely to take place in the foreseeable future; 2) the technology developers are willing to share technology and project-related data; 3) the projects represent a diversity of technology-site-receptor characteristics; 4) the projects are of national interest, and 5) environmental effects data may be available for the projects

Risk-Informed Monitoring, Verification and Accounting (RI-MVA). An NRAP White Paper Documenting Methods and a Demonstration Model for Risk-Informed MVA System Design and Operations in Geologic Carbon Sequestration

This white paper accompanies a demonstration model that implements methods for the risk-informed design of monitoring, verification and accounting (RI-MVA) systems in geologic carbon sequestration projects. The intent is that this model will ultimately be integrated with, or interfaced with, the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) integrated assessment model (IAM). The RI-MVA methods described here apply optimization techniques in the analytical environment of NRAP risk profiles to allow systematic identification and comparison of the risk and cost attributes of MVA design options

Characterizing Uncertainty for Regional Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Decisions

This white paper describes the results of new research to develop an uncertainty characterization process to help address the challenges of regional climate change mitigation and adaptation decisions

Conceptual Model of Offshore Wind Environmental Risk Evaluation System

In this report we describe the development of the Environmental Risk Evaluation System (ERES), a risk-informed analytical process for estimating the environmental risks associated with the construction and operation of offshore wind energy generation projects. The development of ERES for offshore wind is closely allied to a concurrent process undertaken to examine environmental effects of marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) energy generation, although specific risk-relevant attributes will differ between the MHK and offshore wind domains. During FY10, a conceptual design of ERES for offshore wind will be developed. The offshore wind ERES mockup described in this report will provide a preview of the functionality of a fully developed risk evaluation system that will use risk assessment techniques to determine priority stressors on aquatic organisms and environments from specific technology aspects, identify key uncertainties underlying high-risk issues, compile a wide-range of data types in an innovative and flexible data organizing scheme, and inform planning and decision processes with a transparent and technically robust decision-support tool. A fully functional version of ERES for offshore wind will be developed in a subsequent phase of the project

Physics-Based Stress Corrosion Cracking Component Reliability Model cast in an R7-Compatible Cumulative Damage Framework

This is a working report drafted under the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization pathway of the Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program, describing statistical models of passives component reliabilities

Glomerulonephritis and autoimmune vasculitis are independent of P2RX7 but may depend on alternative inflammasome pathways

P2RX7, an ionotropic receptor for extracellular ATP, is expressed on immune cells, including macrophages, monocytes and dendritic cells and is up-regulated on non-immune cells following injury. P2RX7 plays a role in many biological processes, including production of pro-inflammatory cytokines such as IL-1β via the canonical inflammasome pathway. P2RX7 has been shown to be important in inflammation and fibrosis and may also play a role in autoimmunity. We have developed and phenotyped a novel P2RX7 knock-out (KO) inbred rat strain and taking advantage of the human-resembling unique histopathological features of rat models of glomerulonephritis, we induced three models of disease: nephrotoxic nephritis, experimental autoimmune glomerulonephritis, and experimental autoimmune vasculitis. We found that deletion of P2RX7 does not protect rats from models of experimental glomerulonephritis or the development of autoimmunity. Notably, treatment with A-438079, a P2RX7 antagonist, was equally protective in WKY WT and P2RX7 KO rats, revealing its 'off-target' properties. We identify a novel ATP/P2RX7/K+ efflux-independent and caspase-1/8-dependent pathway for production of IL-1β in rat dendritic cells, which was absent in macrophages. Taken together, these results comprehensively establish that inflammation and autoimmunity in glomerulonephritis is independent of P2RX7 and reveals the off-target properties of drugs previously known as selective P2RX7 antagonists. Rat mononuclear phagocytes may be able to utilise an 'alternative inflammasome' pathway to produce IL-1β independently of P2RX7, which may account for the susceptibility of P2RX7 KO rats to inflammation and autoimmunity in glomerulonephritis. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved