Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

This extended report of the IPCC Expert Meeting on the Science of Alternative Metrics that was held in Oslo 18-20 March 2009 is provided in response to an invitation from the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Ad Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments for Annex I Parties under Kyoto Protocol (UNFCCC AWG-KP) to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to undertake further technical assessment of alternative common metrics which are used to calculate the CO2 equivalence of anthropogenic emissions by sources, and removals by sinks, of greenhouse gases listed in Annex A to the Kyoto Protocol. The outcome of the expert meeting was an agreed set of key conclusions and recommendations to UNFCCC in response to the request of the AWG-KP as well as more specific recommendations to the scientific community regarding research needs and ones relevant to the scoping of the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). These were presented to the IPCC Plenary in a short report at its 30th session in Antalya, 21-23 April 2009. The current full report of the expert meeting amplifies those conclusions and recommendations and includes the extended abstracts of the meeting presentations as well as a general bibliography

Differences in isoprene and monoterpene emissions from cold-tolerant eucalypt species grown in the UK

The UK may be required to expand its bioenergy production in order to make a significant contribution towards the delivery of its ‘net zero’ greenhouse gas emissions target by 2050. However, some trees grown for bioenergy are emitters of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), including isoprene and terpenes, precursors in the formation of tropospheric ozone, an atmospheric pollutant, which require assessment to understand any consequent impacts on air quality. In this initial scoping study, VOC emission rates were quantified under UK climate conditions for the first time from four species of eucalypts suitable for growing as short-rotation forest for bioenergy. An additional previously characterised eucalypt species was included for comparison. Measurements were undertaken using a dynamic chamber sampling system on 2-3 year-old trees grown under ambient conditions. Average emission rates for isoprene, normalised to 30 °C and 1000 μmol m−2 s−1 PAR, ranged between 1.3 μg C gdw−1 h−1 to 10 μg C gdw−1 h−1. All the eucalypt species measured were categorised as ‘medium’ isoprene emitters (1–10 μg C gdw−1 h−1). Total normalised monoterpene emission rates were of similar order of magnitude to isoprene or approximately one order of magnitude lower. The composition of the monoterpene emissions differed between the species and major compounds included eucalyptol, α-pinene, limonene and β-cis-ocimene. The emission rates presented here contribute the first data for further studies to quantify the potential impact on UK atmospheric composition, if there were widespread planting of eucalypts in the UK for bioenergy purposes

Sensitivity of the Climate Response to the Altitude of Black Carbon in the Northern Subtropics in an Aquaplanet GCM

This study explores the dependence of the climate response on the altitude of black carbon in the northern subtropics by employing an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to an aquaplanet mixed layer ocean, with a focus on the pattern changes in the temperature, hydrological cycle, and large-scale circulation. Black carbon added below or within the subtropical low-level clouds tends to suppress convection, which reduces the low cloud amount, resulting in a positive cloud radiative forcing. The warmer northern subtropics then induce a northward shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and a poleward expansion of the descending branch of the northern Hadley cell. As the black carbon-induced local warming is amplified by clouds and is advected by the anomalous Hadley circulation, the entire globe gets warmer. In contrast, black carbon added near the surface increases the buoyancy of air parcels to enhance convection, leading to an increase in the subtropical low cloud amount and a negative cloud radiative forcing. The temperature increase remains local to where black carbon is added and elsewhere decreases, so that the ITCZ is shifted southward and the descending branch of the northern Hadley cell contracts equatorward. Consistent with previous studies, the authors demonstrate that the climate response to black carbon is highly sensitive to the vertical distribution of black carbon relative to clouds; hence, models have to accurately compute the vertical transport of black carbon to enhance their skill in simulating the climatic effects of black carbon.close0

A screening tool to prioritize public health risk associated with accidental or deliberate release of chemicals into the atmosphere

The Chemical Events Working Group of the Global Health Security Initiative has developed a flexible screening tool for chemicals that present a risk when accidentally or deliberately released into the atmosphere. The tool is generic, semi-quantitative, independent of site, situation and scenario, encompasses all chemical hazards (toxicity, flammability and reactivity), and can be easily and quickly implemented by non-subject matter experts using freely available, authoritative information. Public health practitioners and planners can use the screening tool to assist them in directing their activities in each of the five stages of the disaster management cycle

A Large Change in Temperature between Neighbouring Days Increases the Risk of Mortality

Background: Previous studies have found high temperatures increase the risk of mortality in summer. However, little is known about whether a sharp decrease or increase in temperature between neighbouring days has any effect on mortality. Method: Poisson regression models were used to estimate the association between temperature change and mortality in summer in Brisbane, Australia during 1996–2004 and Los Angeles, United States during 1987–2000. The temperature change was calculated as the current day’s mean temperature minus the previous day’s mean. Results: In Brisbane, a drop of more than 3 °C in temperature between days was associated with relative risks (RRs) of 1.157 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.024, 1.307) for total non external mortality (NEM), 1.186 (95%CI: 1.002, 1.405) for NEM in females, and 1.442 (95%CI: 1.099, 1.892) for people aged 65–74 years. An increase of more than 3 °C was associated with RRs of 1.353 (95%CI: 1.033, 1.772) for cardiovascular mortality and 1.667 (95%CI: 1.146, 2.425) for people aged < 65 years. In Los Angeles, only a drop of more than 3 °C was significantly associated with RRs of 1.133 (95%CI: 1.053, 1.219) for total NEM, 1.252 (95%CI: 1.131, 1.386) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1.254 (95%CI: 1.135, 1.385) for people aged ≥75 years. In both cities, there were joint effects of temperature change and mean temperature on NEM. Conclusion : A significant change in temperature of more than 3 °C, whether positive or negative, has an adverse impact on mortality even after controlling for the current temperature

Multimodel projections of stratospheric ozone in the 21st century

Simulations from eleven coupled chemistry-climate models (CCMs) employing nearly identical forcings have been used to project the evolution of stratospheric ozone throughout the 21st century. The model-to-model agreement in projected temperature trends is good, and all CCMs predict continued, global mean cooling of the stratosphere over the next 5 decades, increasing from around 0.25 K/decade at 50 hPa to around 1 K/ decade at 1 hPa under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario. In general, the simulated ozone evolution is mainly determined by decreases in halogen concentrations and continued cooling of the global stratosphere due to increases in greenhouse gases (GHGs). Column ozone is projected to increase as stratospheric halogen concentrations return to 1980s levels. Because of ozone increases in the middle and upper stratosphere due to GHGinduced cooling, total ozone averaged over midlatitudes, outside the polar regions, and globally, is projected to increase to 1980 values between 2035 and 2050 and before lower stratospheric halogen amounts decrease to 1980 values. In the polar regions the CCMs simulate small temperature trends in the first and second half of the 21st century in midwinter. Differences in stratospheric inorganic chlorine (Cly) among the CCMs are key to diagnosing the intermodel differences in simulated ozone recovery, in particular in the Antarctic. It is found that there are substantial quantitative differences in the simulated Cly, with the October mean Antarctic Cly peak value varying from less than 2 ppb to over 3.5 ppb in the CCMs, and the date at which the Cly returns to 1980 values varying from before 2030 to after 2050. There is a similar variation in the timing of recovery of Antarctic springtime column ozone back to 1980 values. As most models underestimate peak Cly near 2000, ozone recovery in the Antarctic could occur even later, between 2060 and 2070. In the Arctic the column ozone increase in spring does not follow halogen decreases as closely as in the Antarctic, reaching 1980 values before Arctic halogen amounts decrease to 1980 values and before the Antarctic. None of the CCMs predict future large decreases in the Arctic column ozone. By 2100, total column ozone is projected to be substantially above 1980 values in all regions except in the tropics

How South Pacific mangroves may respond to predicted climate change and sea level rise

In the Pacific islands the total mangrove area is about 343,735 ha, with largest areas in Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Fiji and New Caledonia. A total of 34 species of mangroves occur, as well as 3 hybrids. These are of the Indo-Malayan assemblage (with one exception), and decline in diversity from west to east across the Pacific, reaching a limit at American Samoa. Mangrove resources are traditionally exploited in the Pacific islands, for construction and fuel wood, herbal medicines, and the gathering of crabs and fish. There are two main environmental settings for mangroves in the Pacific, deltaic and estuarine mangroves of high islands, and embayment, lagoon and reef flat mangroves of low islands. It is indicated from past analogues that their close relationship with sea-level height renders these mangrove swamps particularly vulnerable to disruption by sea-level rise. Stratigraphic records of Pacific island mangrove ecosystems during sea-level changes of the Holocene Period demonstrate that low islands mangroves can keep up with a sea-level rise of up to 12 cm per 100 years. Mangroves of high islands can keep up with rates of sea-level rates of up to 45 cm per 100 years, according to the supply of fluvial sediment. When the rate of sea-level rise exceeds the rate of accretion, mangroves experience problems of substrate erosion, inundation stress and increased salinity. Rise in temperature and the direct effects of increased CO2 levels are likely to increase mangrove productivity, change phenological patterns (such as the timing of flowering and fruiting), and expand the ranges of mangroves into higher latitudes. Pacific island mangroves are expected to demonstrate a sensitive response to the predicted rise in sea-level. A regional monitoring system is needed to provide data on ecosystem changes in productivity, species composition and sedimentation. This has been the intention of a number of programs, but none has yet been implemented

Assessment and prevention of acute health effects of weather conditions in Europe, the PHEWE project: background, objectives, design

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The project "Assessment and prevention of acute health effects of weather conditions in Europe" (PHEWE) had the aim of assessing the association between weather conditions and acute health effects, during both warm and cold seasons in 16 European cities with widely differing climatic conditions and to provide information for public health policies.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The PHEWE project was a three-year pan-European collaboration between epidemiologists, meteorologists and experts in public health. Meteorological, air pollution and mortality data from 16 cities and hospital admission data from 12 cities were available from 1990 to 2000. The short-term effect on mortality/morbidity was evaluated through city-specific and pooled time series analysis. The interaction between weather and air pollutants was evaluated and health impact assessments were performed to quantify the effect on the different populations. A heat/health watch warning system to predict oppressive weather conditions and alert the population was developed in a subgroup of cities and information on existing prevention policies and of adaptive strategies was gathered.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Main results were presented in a symposium at the conference of the International Society of Environmental Epidemiology in Paris on September 6^th2006 and will be published as scientific articles. The present article introduces the project and includes a description of the database and the framework of the applied methodology.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The PHEWE project offers the opportunity to investigate the relationship between temperature and mortality in 16 European cities, representing a wide range of climatic, socio-demographic and cultural characteristics; the use of a standardized methodology allows for direct comparison between cities.</p