Has the accuracy of german macroeconomic forecasts improved?

The major focus of this paper is to determine whether the accuracy of German macroeconomic forecasts has improved over time. We examine 1-year-ahead forecasts of real GDP and inflation for 1967 to 2001 made by three major German forecasting groups and the OECD. We examine the accuracy of the forecasts over the entire period and in three sub-periods. We conclude that, with some exceptions, the errors of the German forecasters were similar to those of their US and UK counterparts. While the absolute size of the forecast errors has declined, this is not the case for relative accuracy. A benchmark comparison of these predictions with the ex post forecasts of a macroeconometric model indicates that the quality of the growth forecasts can be improved but that the expected increase in accuracy may not be substantial

Has the accuracy of German macroeconomic forecasts improved?

The major focus of this paper is to determine whether the accuracy of German macroeconomic forecasts has improved over time. We examine 1-year-ahead forecasts of real GDP and inflation for 1967 to 2001 made by three major German forecasting groups and the OECD. We examine the accuracy of the forecasts over the entire period and in three sub-periods. We conclude that, with some exceptions, the errors of the German forecasters were similar to those of their US and UK counterparts. While the absolute size of the forecast errors has declined, this is not the case for relative accuracy. A benchmark comparison of these predictions with the ex post forecasts of a macroeconometric model indicates that the quality of the growth forecasts can be improved but that the expected increase in accuracy may not be substantial. --Forecast evaluations,macroeconomic forecasting,accuracy limits

The Clinton era and the U.S. business cycle : what did change?

The 1990s were the most prosperous decade in U.S. economic history. The paper analyses to which extent this period fits into preceding cyclical experience. This is done by classifying the period 1991-12 to 2000-12 with the help of a 4-phase classification scheme based on multivariate discriminance analysis. It is shown that in relation to the post 1970 experience, the ?fabulous decade? saw considerable shifts of influence between the 19 classifying variables. Most noteworthy are the much reduced influence of M2, Net Exports, and Unemployment on the one side and the increase of Real GNP, inflation, Government Expenditure and of Unit Labor Cost on the other side. This confirms interpretations of the fabulous decade as the result of a forbearing monetary policy made possible by a deficit targeting fiscal policy, low inflation and a productivity jump. However, the era looses some of its uniqueness when it is seen in the entire post WW II cycle history. --U.S. business cycle,4-phase scheme,discriminance analysis,Clinton era

Has the Accuracy of German Macroeconomic Forecasts Improved?

This paper asks whether the accuracy of German macroeconomic forecasts has improved over time. We examine one-year-ahead forecasts of rates of real GDP growth and inflation for the years 1967 to 2010 by three major German forecasters and the OECD. We find that overall error levels are high but not much different from those for the U.S. and U.K. In the 1980s and 1990s accuracy improved somewhat, but has now returned to its 1970s level, indicating that it reflects the variance of growth and inflation. Benchmark comparisons of these predictions with ex post forecasts of a macroecono-metric model indicate that accuracy can be improved but it will be difficult to achieve.Forecast evaluations; macroeconomic forecasting; accuracy limits

Ostdeutschland - ein 'Mezzogiorno-Fall'?

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Deutschland im internationalen Vergleich - einige Fragezeichen

Die Debatte um den „Standort Deutschland“ wird durch immer neue Ergebnisse angeheizt. Was ist von den vorgestellten Befunden zu halten? Professor Ullrich Heilemann weist auf die oft willkürlichen inhaltlichen Verengungen, methodischen Mängel und die defizitäre empirische Basis hin. --

The Clinton era and the U.S. business cycle: what did change?

The 1990s were the most prosperous decade in U.S. economic history. The paper analyses to which extent this period fits into preceding cyclical experience. This is done by classifying the period 1991-12 to 2000-12 with the help of a 4-phase classification scheme based on multivariate discriminance analysis. It is shown that in relation to the post 1970 experience, the “fabulous decade” saw considerable shifts of influence between the 19 classifying variables. Most noteworthy are the much reduced influence of M2, Net Exports, and Unemployment on the one side and the increase of Real GNP, inflation, Government Expenditure and of Unit Labor Cost on the other side. This confirms interpretations of the fabulous decade as the result of a forbearing monetary policy made possible by a deficit targeting fiscal policy, low inflation and a productivity jump. However, the era looses some of its uniqueness when it is seen in the entire post WW II cycle history

Bald so wie überall? Strukturwandel der ostdeutschen Wirtschaft 1992-2006

Ullrich Heilemann und Stefan Wappler, Universität Leipzig, untersuchen die strukturelle - vor allem die sektorale - Dimension des Anpassungs- und Aufholprozesses der ostdeutschen Wirtschaft.Strukturwandel, Regionale Entwicklung, Shift-Share-Analyse, Neue Bundesländer