98 research outputs found
Multilevel Quasi-Monte Carlo Methods for Lognormal Diffusion Problems
In this paper we present a rigorous cost and error analysis of a multilevel
estimator based on randomly shifted Quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) lattice rules for
lognormal diffusion problems. These problems are motivated by uncertainty
quantification problems in subsurface flow. We extend the convergence analysis
in [Graham et al., Numer. Math. 2014] to multilevel Quasi-Monte Carlo finite
element discretizations and give a constructive proof of the
dimension-independent convergence of the QMC rules. More precisely, we provide
suitable parameters for the construction of such rules that yield the required
variance reduction for the multilevel scheme to achieve an -error
with a cost of with , and in
practice even , for sufficiently fast decaying covariance
kernels of the underlying Gaussian random field inputs. This confirms that the
computational gains due to the application of multilevel sampling methods and
the gains due to the application of QMC methods, both demonstrated in earlier
works for the same model problem, are complementary. A series of numerical
experiments confirms these gains. The results show that in practice the
multilevel QMC method consistently outperforms both the multilevel MC method
and the single-level variants even for non-smooth problems.Comment: 32 page
Consensus-based rare event estimation
In this paper, we introduce a new algorithm for rare event estimation based
on adaptive importance sampling. We consider a smoothed version of the optimal
importance sampling density, which is approximated by an ensemble of
interacting particles. The particle dynamics is governed by a McKean-Vlasov
stochastic differential equation, which was introduced and analyzed in
(Carrillo et al., Stud. Appl. Math. 148:1069-1140, 2022) for consensus-based
sampling and optimization of posterior distributions arising in the context of
Bayesian inverse problems. We develop automatic updates for the internal
parameters of our algorithm. This includes a novel time step size controller
for the exponential Euler method, which discretizes the particle dynamics. The
behavior of all parameter updates depends on easy to interpret accuracy
criteria specified by the user. We show in numerical experiments that our
method is competitive to state-of-the-art adaptive importance sampling
algorithms for rare event estimation, namely a sequential importance sampling
method and the ensemble Kalman filter for rare event estimation
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