Non-parametric Bayesian Causal Modeling of the SARS-CoV-2 Viral Load Distribution vs. Patient's Age

The viral load of patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 varies on logarithmic scales and possibly with age. Controversial claims have been made in the literature regarding whether the viral load distribution actually depends on the age of the patients. Such a dependence would have implications for the COVID-19 spreading mechanism, the age-dependent immune system reaction, and thus for policymaking. We hereby develop a method to analyze viral-load distribution data as a function of the patients' age within a flexible, non-parametric, hierarchical, Bayesian, and causal model. This method can be applied to other contexts as well, and for this purpose, it is made freely available. The developed reconstruction method also allows testing for bias in the data. This could be due to, e.g., bias in patient-testing and data collection or systematic errors in the measurement of the viral load. We perform these tests by calculating the Bayesian evidence for each implied possible causal direction. When applying these tests to publicly available age and SARS-CoV-2 viral load data, we find a statistically significant increase in the viral load with age, but only for one of the two analyzed datasets. If we consider this dataset, and based on the current understanding of viral load's impact on patients' infectivity, we expect a non-negligible difference in the infectivity of different age groups. This difference is nonetheless too small to justify considering any age group as noninfectious

Variability of UV irradiance in Europe

The diurnal and annual variability of solar UV radiation in Europe is described for different latitudes, seasons and different biologic weighting functions. For the description of this variability under cloudless skies the widely used onedimensional version of the radiative transfer model UVSPEC is used. We reconfirm that the major factor influencing the diurnal and annual variability of UV irradiance is solar elevation. While ozone is a strong absorber of UV radiation its effect is relatively constant when compared with the temporal variability of clouds. We show the significant role that clouds play in modifying the UV climate by analyzing erythemal irradiance measurements from 28 stations in Europe in summer. On average, the daily erythemal dose under cloudless skies varies between 2.2 kJ m-2 at 70N and 5.2 kJ m-2 at 35N, whereas these values are reduced to 1.5–4.5 kJ m-2 if clouds are included. Thus clouds significantly reduce the monthly UV irradiation, with the smallest reductions, on average, at lower latitudes, which corresponds to the fact that it is often cloudless in the Mediterranean area in summer