How Secure Are Retirement Nest Eggs?

Life's uncertainties can upend the best-laid retirement plans. Health can fail as people grow older, or their spouses can become ill. Older people can lose their jobs, and often have trouble finding new ones. Marriages can end in widowhood or divorce. Health, employment, and marital shocks near retirement can have serious financial repercussions, raising out-of-pocket medical spending, reducing earnings, disrupting retirement saving, and forcing people to dip prematurely into their nest eggs. This brief examines different types of negative events that can strike near retirement. It reports the incidence of widowhood, divorce, job layoffs, disability, and various medical conditions over a 10-year period, and estimates their impact on household wealth. Data come from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), a nationally representative survey of older Americans conducted by the University of Michigan for the National Institute on Aging. The survey interviewed a large sample of non-institutionalized adults ages 51 to 61 in 1992 and re-interviewed them every other year. The analysis uses data through 2002, the most recent year available. The results show that many people in their 50s and 60s experience negative shocks that threaten retirement security. Job layoffs, divorce, and the onset of work disabilities near retirement substantially erode retirement savings. The findings highlight the limitations of the safety net when things go wrong in late midlife. This Brief was written for the Center for Retirement Research based at Boston College

Health Problems and Job Layoffs Crack Retirement Nest Eggs

As people prepare for retirement, even the best-laid plans can go awry. Health fails. Spouses or other family members become ill. Marriages end in widowhood or divorce. Investments sour. People lose their jobs. Health, employment, and marital shocks can have serious financial consequences -- out-of-pocket health bills, reduced earnings, disrupted retirement saving -- forcing people as young as 50 or 60 to dip into their nest eggs

Effects of Stock Market Fluctuations on the Adequacy of Retirement Wealth Accumulation

This paper examines the relation between fluctuations in the aggregate value of equities and the adequacy of households’ saving for retirement. We find that many and perhaps most households appear to be saving adequate amounts for retirement, but almost no link between stock values and the adequacy of retirement saving. Historical variation in equity values and ownership correlates poorly with historical variation in the adequacy of saving. Even a simulated 40 percent decline in stocks has little effect on the adequacy of saving. The results occur because equities are concentrated among households with significant amounts of other wealth.retirement, saving, stocks, equities

When The Nest Egg Cracks: Financial Consequences Of Health Problems, Marital Status Changes, And Job Layoffs At Older Ages

The risk of falling into poor health, losing the ability to work or live independently, becoming widowed, and experiencing other negative events that threaten financial security increase with age. This report computes the incidence of these negative events at older ages and examines their impact on economic well-being. Over a 10-year period, more than three-quarters of adults age 51 to 61 at the beginning of the period experience job layoffs,widowhood, divorce, new health problems, or the onset of frailty among parents or in-laws. More than two-thirds of adults age 70 and older experience at least one negative shock over a nine-year period. Incidence rates are even higher at the household level for married people, who face the added risk that their spouses could develop health problems or lose their jobs. Financial consequences are especially serious for older adults who develop work disabilities or long-term care needs, or who become unemployed.nest eggs, retirement risk, social security, umemployed

EFFECTS OF STOCK MARKET FLUCTUATIONS ON THE ADEQUACY OF RETIREMENT WEALTH ACCUMULATION

This paper examines the relation between fluctuations in the aggregate value of equities and the adequacy of households' saving for retirement. Using more recent data than most studies on this topic, we find that many and perhaps most households appear to be saving adequate amounts for retirement, and that there is almost no link between aggregate equity values and the adequacy of retirement saving. A simulated 40 percent decline in stocks has little effect on the adequacy of saving. The substantial growth in equity values and ownership in the 1980s and 1990s did not lead to a surge in the adequacy of retirement saving provisions. The results occur because equity holdings are concentrated among households with significant amounts of other wealth. Copyright 2005 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.