Strategic Coordination in Forecasting. An Experimental Study

Reputational herding has been considered as a driving force behind economic and financial forecasts clustered around consensus values. Strategic coordination can consequently explain poor performances of prediction markets as resulting from the distinct incentives that forecasters face. While this notion has been considered theoretically and empirically, the underlying behavioral working mechanisms have not yet been described. We thus put forth an exploratory experiment on the emergence and robustness of coordination in a forecasting setting implementing contradictory incentives for accurate forecasts and coordination. Forecasts are shown to be inaccurate and biased toward current values. This in turn has subjects aiming at coordination benefits. Predominantly, coordination is achieved through the risk-dominant equilibrium as the game proceeds. Once established, coordination is fairly stable and adds to overall welfare. Our results support the assumption of rational herding as a driving force for predictions of poor accuracy that are systematically biased towards focal points

Phase 1b dose escalation study of erlotinib in combination with infusional 5-fluorouracil, leucovorin, and oxaliplatin in patients with advanced solid tumors

Purpose: Erlotinib (Tarceva) is a potent epidermal growth factor receptor (HER1) inhibitor. Infusional 5-fluorouracil (5-FU), leucovorin, and oxaliplatin (FOLFOX) is a standard therapy for colorectal cancer. This trial assessed the maximum tolerated dose (MTD), safety, preliminary efficacy, and pharmacokinetics of erlotinib combined with FOLFOX. Experimental Design: Patients with advanced solid tumors were sequentially enrolled into three cohorts (cohort 1: 100 mg/d erlotinib, 65 mg/m(2) oxaliplatin, 200 mg/m(2) leucovorin, 400 mg/m(2) bolus 5-FU, and 400 mg/m(2) continuous infusion 5-FU; cohort 2: oxaliplatin increased to 85 mg/m(2) and 5-FU infusion increased to 600 mg/m(2); and cohort 3: erlotinib increased to 150 mg/d). Results: Thirty-two patients were enrolled (23 with colorectal cancer): no dose-limiting toxicities (DLT) were observed in cohort 1. In cohort 2, two of nine patients experienced a DLT (both diarrhea). In cohort 3, two of nine patients had a DLT (diarrhea and staphylococcal septicemia). Cohort 3 determined the MTD cohort and expanded to 17 patients in total. The most common adverse events were diarrhea, nausea, stomatitis, and rash (primarily mild/moderate). No pharmacokinetics interactions were observed. One patient (colorectal cancer) had a complete response, seven patients had a partial response, and nine had stable disease. Conclusions: The MTD was defined as follows: 150 mg/d erlotinib, 85 mg/m(2) oxaliplatin; 200 mg/m(2) leucovorin, 400 mg/m(2) bolus 5-FU, and 600 mg/m(2) infusion 5-FU. At the MTD, the combination was well tolerated and showed antitumor activity, warranting further investigation in patients with advanced colorectal cancer and other solid tumors