Alcohol intake in relation to non-fatal and fatal coronary heart disease and stroke: EPIC-CVD case-cohort study

Objective To investigate the association between alcohol consumption (at baseline and over lifetime) and non-fatal and fatal coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke. Design Multicentre case-cohort study. Setting A study of cardiovascular disease (CVD) determinants within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and nutrition cohort (EPIC-CVD) from eight European countries. Participants 32 549 participants without baseline CVD, comprised of incident CVD cases and a subcohort for comparison. Main outcome measures Non-fatal and fatal CHD and stroke (including ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke). Results There were 9307 non-fatal CHD events, 1699 fatal CHD, 5855 non-fatal stroke, and 733 fatal stroke. Baseline alcohol intake was inversely associated with non-fatal CHD, with a hazard ratio of 0.94 (95% confidence interval 0.92 to 0.96) per 12 g/day higher intake. There was a J shaped association between baseline alcohol intake and risk of fatal CHD. The hazard ratios were 0.83 (0.70 to 0.98), 0.65 (0.53 to 0.81), and 0.82 (0.65 to 1.03) for categories 5.0-14.9 g/day, 15.0-29.9 g/day, and 30.0-59.9 g/day of total alcohol intake, respectively, compared with 0.1-4.9 g/day. In contrast, hazard ratios for non-fatal and fatal stroke risk were 1.04 (1.02 to 1.07), and 1.05 (0.98 to 1.13) per 12 g/day increase in baseline alcohol intake, respectively, including broadly similar findings for ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke. Associations with cardiovascular outcomes were broadly similar with average lifetime alcohol consumption as for baseline alcohol intake, and across the eight countries studied. There was no strong evidence for interactions of alcohol consumption with smoking status on the risk of CVD events. Conclusions Alcohol intake was inversely associated with non-fatal CHD risk but positively associated with the risk of different stroke subtypes. This highlights the opposing associations of alcohol intake with different CVD types and strengthens the evidence for policies to reduce alcohol consumption

Prognostic models for outcome prediction in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: systematic review and critical appraisal

OBJECTIVE: To map and assess prognostic models for outcome prediction in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). DESIGN: Systematic review. DATA SOURCES: PubMed until November 2018 and hand searched references from eligible articles. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA FOR STUDY SELECTION: Studies developing, validating, or updating a prediction model in COPD patients and focusing on any potential clinical outcome. RESULTS: The systematic search yielded 228 eligible articles, describing the development of 408 prognostic models, the external validation of 38 models, and the validation of 20 prognostic models derived for diseases other than COPD. The 408 prognostic models were developed in three clinical settings: outpatients (n=239; 59%), patients admitted to hospital (n=155; 38%), and patients attending the emergency department (n=14; 3%). Among the 408 prognostic models, the most prevalent endpoints were mortality (n=209; 51%), risk for acute exacerbation of COPD (n=42; 10%), and risk for readmission after the index hospital admission (n=36; 9%). Overall, the most commonly used predictors were age (n=166; 41%), forced expiratory volume in one second (n=85; 21%), sex (n=74; 18%), body mass index (n=66; 16%), and smoking (n=65; 16%). Of the 408 prognostic models, 100 (25%) were internally validated and 91 (23%) examined the calibration of the developed model. For 286 (70%) models a model presentation was not available, and only 56 (14%) models were presented through the full equation. Model discrimination using the C statistic was available for 311 (76%) models. 38 models were externally validated, but in only 12 of these was the validation performed by a fully independent team. Only seven prognostic models with an overall low risk of bias according to PROBAST were identified. These models were ADO, B-AE-D, B-AE-D-C, extended ADO, updated ADO, updated BODE, and a model developed by Bertens et al. A meta-analysis of C statistics was performed for 12 prognostic models, and the summary estimates ranged from 0.611 to 0.769. CONCLUSIONS: This study constitutes a detailed mapping and assessment of the prognostic models for outcome prediction in COPD patients. The findings indicate several methodological pitfalls in their development and a low rate of external validation. Future research should focus on the improvement of existing models through update and external validation, as well as the assessment of the safety, clinical effectiveness, and cost effectiveness of the application of these prognostic models in clinical practice through impact studies. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42017069247

Birth weight in relation to health and disease in later life: an umbrella review of systematic reviews and meta-analyses

BACKGROUND: Birth weight, a marker of the intrauterine environment, has been extensively studied in epidemiological research in relation to subsequent health and disease. Although numerous meta-analyses have been published examining the association between birth weight and subsequent health-related outcomes, the epidemiological credibility of these associations has not been thoroughly assessed. The objective of this study is to map the diverse health outcomes associated with birth weight and evaluate the credibility and presence of biases in the reported associations. METHODS: An umbrella review was performed to identify systematic reviews and meta-analyses of observational studies investigating the association between birth weight and subsequent health outcomes and traits. For each association, we estimated the summary effect size by random-effects and fixed-effects models, the 95 % confidence interval, and the 95 % prediction interval. We also assessed the between-study heterogeneity, evidence for small-study effects and excess significance bias. We further applied standardized methodological criteria to evaluate the epidemiological credibility of the statistically significant associations. RESULTS: Thirty-nine articles including 78 associations between birth weight and diverse outcomes met the eligibility criteria. A wide range of health outcomes has been studied, ranging from anthropometry and metabolic diseases, cardiovascular diseases and cardiovascular risk factors, various cancers, respiratory diseases and allergies, musculoskeletal traits and perinatal outcomes. Forty-seven of 78 associations presented a nominally significant summary effect and 21 associations remained statistically significant at P < 1 × 10(-6). Thirty associations presented large or very large between-study heterogeneity. Evidence for small-study effects and excess significance bias was present in 13 and 16 associations, respectively. One association with low birth weight (increased risk for all-cause mortality), two dose-response associations with birth weight (higher bone mineral concentration in hip and lower risk for mortality from cardiovascular diseases per 1 kg increase in birth weight) and one association with small-for-gestational age infants with normal birth weight (increased risk for childhood stunting) presented convincing evidence. Eleven additional associations had highly suggestive evidence. CONCLUSIONS: The range of outcomes convincingly associated with birth weight might be narrower than originally described under the "fetal origin hypothesis" of disease. There is weak evidence that birth weight constitutes an effective public health intervention marker

Response to pulmonary arterial hypertension drug therapies in patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension and cardiovascular risk factors.

The age at diagnosis of pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) and the prevalence of cardiovascular (CV) risk factors are increasing. We sought to determine whether the response to drug therapy was influenced by CV risk factors in PAH patients. We studied consecutive incident PAH patients (n = 146) between January 1, 2008, and July 15, 2011. Patients were divided into two groups: the PAH-No CV group included patients with no CV risk factors (obesity, systemic hypertension, type 2 diabetes mellitus, permanent atrial fibrillation, mitral and/or aortic valve disease, and coronary artery disease), and the PAH-CV group included patients with at least one. The response to PAH treatment was analyzed in all the patients who received PAH drug therapy. The PAH-No CV group included 43 patients, and the PAH-CV group included 69 patients. Patients in the PAH-No CV group were younger than those in the PAH-CV group (P < 0.0001). In the PAH-No CV group, 16 patients (37%) improved on treatment and 27 (63%) did not improve, compared with 11 (16%) and 58 (84%) in the PAH-CV group, respectively (P = 0.027 after adjustment for age). There was no difference in survival at 30 months (P = 0.218). In conclusion, in addition to older age, CV risk factors may predict a reduced response to PAH drug therapy in patients with PAH

Neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio and cancer prognosis: an umbrella review of systematic reviews and meta-analyses of observational studies

Background Although neutrophils have been linked to the progression of cancer, uncertainty exists around their association with cancer outcomes, depending on the site, outcome and treatments considered. We aimed to evaluate the strength and validity of evidence on the association between either the neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) or tumour-associated neutrophils (TAN) and cancer prognosis. Methods We searched MEDLINE, Embase and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews from inception to 29 May 2020 for systematic reviews and meta-analyses of observational studies on neutrophil counts (here NLR or TAN) and specific cancer outcomes related to disease progression or survival. The available evidence was graded as strong, highly suggestive, suggestive, weak or uncertain through the application of pre-set GRADE criteria. Results A total of 204 meta-analyses from 86 studies investigating the association between either NLR or TAN and cancer outcomes met the criteria for inclusion. All but one meta-analyses found a hazard ratio (HR) which increased risk (HR > 1). We did not find sufficient meta-analyses to evaluate TAN and cancer outcomes (N = 9). When assessed for magnitude of effect, significance and bias related to heterogeneity and small study effects, 18 (9%) associations between NLR and outcomes in composite cancer endpoints (combined analysis), cancers treated with immunotherapy and some site specific cancers (urinary, nasopharyngeal, gastric, breast, endometrial, soft tissue sarcoma and hepatocellular cancers) were supported by strong evidence. Conclusion In total, 60 (29%) meta-analyses presented strong or highly suggestive evidence. Although the NLR and TAN hold clinical promise in their association with poor cancer prognosis, further research is required to provide robust evidence, assess causality and test clinical utility

Sleep, major depressive disorder and Alzheimer’s disease: a Mendelian randomisation study

Objective To explore the causal relationships between sleep, major depressive disorder (MDD), and Alzheimer’s disease (AD). Methods We conducted bi-directional two-sample Mendelian randomisation analyses. Genetic associations were obtained from the largest genome-wide association studies currently available in UK Biobank (N=446,118), the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium (N=18,759), and the International Genomics of Alzheimer’s Project (N=63,926). We used the inverse variance weighted Mendelian randomisation method to estimate causal effects, and weighted median and MR-Egger for sensitivity analyses to test for pleiotropic effects. Results We found that higher risk of AD was significantly associated with being a “morning person” (odds ratio (OR)=1.01, P=0.001), shorter sleep duration (self-reported: β=-0.006, P=1.9×10-4; accelerometer-based: β=-0.015, P=6.9×10-5), less likely to report long sleep (β=-0.003, P=7.3×10-7), earlier timing of the least active 5 hours (β=-0.024, P=1.7×10-13), and a smaller number of sleep episodes (β=-0.025, P=5.7×10-14) after adjusting for multiple comparisons. We also found that higher risk of AD was associated with lower risk of insomnia (OR=0.99, P=7×10-13). However, we did not find evidence either that these abnormal sleep patterns were causally related to AD or for a significant causal relationship between MDD and risk of AD. Conclusion We found that AD may causally influence sleep patterns. However, we did not find evidence supporting a causal role of disturbed sleep patterns for AD or evidence for a causal relationship between MDD and AD

Prognostic factors for adverse outcomes in patients with COVID-19: a field-wide systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION: The individual prognostic factors for COVID-19 are unclear. For this reason, we aimed to present a state-of-the-art systematic review and meta-analysis on the prognostic factors for adverse outcomes in COVID-19 patients. METHODS: We systematically reviewed PubMed from January 1, 2020 to July 26, 2020 to identify non-overlapping studies examining the association of any prognostic factor with any adverse outcome in patients with COVID-19. Random-effects meta-analysis was performed, and between-study heterogeneity was quantified using I2 metric. Presence of small-study effects was assessed by applying the Egger's regression test. RESULTS: We identified 428 eligible articles, which were used in a total of 263 meta-analyses examining the association of 91 unique prognostic factors with 11 outcomes. Angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, obstructive sleep apnea, pharyngalgia, history of venous thromboembolism, sex, coronary heart disease, cancer, chronic liver disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, dementia, any immunosuppressive medication, peripheral arterial disease, rheumatological disease and smoking were associated with at least one outcome and had >1000 events, p-value <0.005, I2 <50%, 95% prediction interval excluding the null value, and absence of small-study effects in the respective meta-analysis. The risk of bias assessment using the Quality In Prognosis Studies tool indicated high risk of bias in 302 of 428 articles for study participation, 389 articles for adjustment for other prognostic factors, and 396 articles for statistical analysis and reporting. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings could be used for prognostic model building and guide patients' selection for randomised clinical trials