Causality and Association: The Statistical and Legal Approaches

This paper discusses different needs and approaches to establishing ``causation'' that are relevant in legal cases involving statistical input based on epidemiological (or more generally observational or population-based) information. We distinguish between three versions of ``cause'': the first involves negligence in providing or allowing exposure, the second involves ``cause'' as it is shown through a scientifically proved increased risk of an outcome from the exposure in a population, and the third considers ``cause'' as it might apply to an individual plaintiff based on the first two. The population-oriented ``cause'' is that commonly addressed by statisticians, and we propose a variation on the Bradford Hill approach to testing such causality in an observational framework, and discuss how such a systematic series of tests might be considered in a legal context. We review some current legal approaches to using probabilistic statements, and link these with the scientific methodology as developed here. In particular, we provide an approach both to the idea of individual outcomes being caused on a balance of probabilities, and to the idea of material contribution to such outcomes. Statistical terminology and legal usage of terms such as ``proof on the balance of probabilities'' or ``causation'' can easily become confused, largely due to similar language describing dissimilar concepts; we conclude, however, that a careful analysis can identify and separate those areas in which a legal decision alone is required and those areas in which scientific approaches are useful.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/07-STS234 the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Setting a Global Standard: The Case for Accounting Convergence

As capital markets play an increasingly central role in today\u27s modern economies, policy-makers are confronted with the question of how to assure the continued effective functioning of these markets and, in particular, how to develop a sound financial reporting infrastructure. Recent experience suggests that such a reporting infrastructure must be built on accounting standards that are consistent, comprehensive, and based on clear principles to enable financial reports to reflect underlying economic reality

Setting a Global Standard: The Case for Accounting Convergence

As capital markets play an increasingly central role in today\u27s modern economies, policy-makers are confronted with the question of how to assure the continued effective functioning of these markets and, in particular, how to develop a sound financial reporting infrastructure. Recent experience suggests that such a reporting infrastructure must be built on accounting standards that are consistent, comprehensive, and based on clear principles to enable financial reports to reflect underlying economic reality

The effect of straw on the emergence of wheat seedlings

The emergence of wheat seedlings was decreased substantially when seed was planted close to oaten straw. When the grain was placed a 1/4 inch above a straw layer emergence was depressed by more than half

Barley diseases in Western Australia

BARLEY DISEASES caused by pathogenic organisms are capable of reducing yields considerably. The recognition of disease is important so that control measures can then be taken at the appropriate time

Lung cancer and passive smoking: reconciling the biochemical and epidemiological approaches.

The accurate determination of exposure to environmental tobacco smoke is notoriously difficult. There have been to date two approaches to determining this exposure in the study of association of passive smoking and lung cancer: the biochemical approach, using cotinine in the main as a marker, and the epidemiological approach. Typically results of the former have yielded much lower relative risk than the latter, and have tended to be ignored in favour of the latter, although there has been considerable debate as to the logical basis for this. We settle this question by showing that, using the epidemiologically based meta-analysis technique of Wald et al. (1986), and misclassification models in the EPA Draft Review (1990), one arrives using all current studies at a result which is virtually identical with the biochemically-based conclusions of Darby and Pike (1988) or Repace and Lowry (1990). The conduct of this meta-analysis itself raises a number of important methodological questions, including the validity of inclusion of studies, the use of estimates adjusted for covariates, and the statistical significance of estimates based on meta-analysis of the epidemiological data. The best estimate of relative risk from spousal smoking is shown to be approximately 1.05-1.10, based on either of these approaches; but it is suggested that considerable extra work is needed to establish whether this is significantly raised

Oat diseases in Western Australia

OVER ONE MILLION acres of oats are grown yearly in this State, making the crop next in importance to wheat. Pathogenic organisms are responsible for considerable reductions in yield, yet losses can be minimized if control measures are taken

Wheat diseases in Western Australia

DISEASES caused by pathogenic organisms can seriously affect the yield of wheat. Some diseases are comparatively rare whereas others occur over a large area of the wheatbelt year after year

Proton lifetime bounds from chirally symmetric lattice QCD

We present results for the matrix elements relevant for proton decay in Grand Unified Theories (GUTs). The calculation is performed at a fixed lattice spacing a^{-1}=1.73(3) GeV using 2+1 flavors of domain wall fermions on lattices of size 16^3\times32 and 24^3\times64 with a fifth dimension of length 16. We use the indirect method which relies on an effective field theory description of proton decay, where we need to estimate the low energy constants, \alpha = -0.0112(25) GeV^3 and \beta = 0.0120(26) GeV^3. We relate these low energy constants to the proton decay matrix elements using leading order chiral perturbation theory. These can then be combined with experimental bounds on the proton lifetime to bound parameters of individual GUTs.Comment: 17 pages, 9 Figure