Monetary policy, asset prices and consumption in China

This paper studies the wealth channel in China. Using the structural vector autoregression method, we find that a loosening of China’s monetary policy indeed leads to higher asset prices, which in turn are linked to household consumption. However, the importance of the wealth channel as a part of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in China is still limited.China; monetary policy; asset prices

Do efficient banking sectors accelerate economic growth in transition countries

The relationship between financial sector and economic growth in transition countries has been largely ignored in the earlier empirical literature. In this paper, we analyse the finance-growth nexus using a fixed-effects panel model and unbalanced panel data from 25 transition countries during the period 1993-2000. We measure the qualitative development in the banking sectors using the margin between lending and deposit interest rates. Our second variable for the level of financial sector development is the amount of bank credit allocated to the private sector as a share of GDP. According to our results, the interest rate margin is significantly and negatively related to economic growth. This outcome is in line with theoretical models and has important policy implications. On the other hand, a rise in the amount of credit does not seem to accelerate economic growth. The main reasons behind this result could be the numerous banking crises the transition countries have experienced and the soft budget constraints that are still prevalent in many transition countries. Due to these specific characteristics the growth in credit has not always been sustainable and in some cases it may have led to a decline in growth rates.financial sector; transition economies; economic growth; panel data

Financial Systems in Transition: Could Small Actually Be Beautiful?

CEEC; Russia

Monitoring regional differences in Northwest Russia

The paper presents the idea and results of a joint Finnish-Russian project on economic monitoring of Northwest Russia financed by the Finnish Ministry for Foreign Affairs. The regions monitored include the Murmansk region, the Karelian Republic, the Leningrad region, St.Petersburg, the Kaliningrad and the Novgorod regions. First, in the paper, the aims and operation of the monitoring project are presented. The aim is to provide regular, comprehensive and comparable information on production and demand indicators, on foreign relations, and on public sector and social developments in the regions. The bi-annual publication is the first of its kind at this detailed level. The statistical, analytical and qualitative insights are targeted at a wide international audience. Second, the development trends in the monitored regions are reviewed. It is demonstrated that the regions are gradually and slowly recovering from the economic shock caused by the breakdown of the socialist system. Also, the regions have gone through a painful and thorough restructuring, with drastic drops in production and the share of the service sector increasing. Regional differences in restructuring are pointed out. St Petersburg and the surrounding Leningrad region have become a center of food production, with the help of strong domestic demand and relatively high foreign investment flows. The development in other industries such as electronics is promising as well. Karelia and Murmansk, in turn, have been vulnerable to the world market development of their main export products, which has reflected to the general economic development of the regions. Kaliningrad region’s special status shows in the importance of foreign trade and investment. Third, the paper raises the issue of uneven regional development. Northwest Russia is characterized by a rather clear North-South divide, with the Southernmost regions winning the Northern ones by virtually all indicators. In addition to economic growth and development, this difference is seen in, for example, unemployment levels and demographic trends. The paper concludes with discussing the need for qualitative research topics to highlight the actual social processes underlying the socio-economic restructuring in Northwest Russia. Also, comprehensive micro-level quantitative analysis would greatly add to the understanding of the economic processes, as to date it has mostly based on macro-level indicators.

To Divest or not to Divest? Social Assets in Russian Firms

In the planned economy firms were made responsible for providing their workers with social services, such as housing, day care and medical care. In the transforming Russia of the 1990s, social assets were to be transferred from industrial enterprises to the public sector. A law on divestment was put into force but it provided mostly general principles. Thus, for a period of several years, property rights over a major part of social assets, most notably housing, were not properly defined as the transfer decisions were largely left for the local level players to make. Strikingly, the time when assets were divested varied considerably across firms. In this paper we take a political economy approach and utilize recent survey data from 404 medium and large industrial enterprises in 40 Russian regions to study the effects different forms of bargaining between the firm and the municipality may have on the timing decisions. In particular, we apply survival data analysis to explore the determinants of the divestiture timing. Our results show that the firms which divested assets later receive more benefits from the local authorities, especially in places where there are more benefits to extract (i.e. the local budget is richer). Further, we find evidence that the firms which transferred assets later performed relatively worse in 2002 in terms of profitability, productivity and investments. Finally, the data shows that poorly defined property rights have an adverse effect on the incentives to invest in social assets, and hence on the quality of public service provision.

Bribes and local fiscal autonomy in Russia

Russian industrial enterprises inherited from the Soviet era a tradition of producing welfare and infrastructure services within the firm, also for outside users. Despite the massive restructuring of the economy that took place since, many firms are still active in service provision. At the same time, opaque fiscal federalism is a problem for municipalities whereas rent extraction by public sector officials is a problem for firms. In this paper we examine whether there is a link between these phenomena. We propose a model on local fiscal incentives, service provision by firms and the municipality-firm relationship in the form of bribes. Using survey data from 404 medium and large industrial enterprises in 40 regions of Russia, we find that the higher the share of own revenues in the local budget, the more likely the firms are to report bribes. In the case of infrastructure services, the data also support the hypothesis that the channel is through service provision: the less fiscal autonomy, the more service provision and the less likely the firms are to report bribes.local fiscal incentives; corruption; service provision; Russia; firm survey

Phonon-drag induced suppression of the Andreev hole current in superconducting niobium contacts

We have investigated how the Andreev-reflection hole current at ballistic point contacts responds to a large bias voltage. Its strong suppression could be explained by the drag excerted by the non-equilibrium phonon wind generated by high-energy electrons flowing through the contact. The hole - phonon interaction leads to scattering lengths of the low-energetic holes down to 100\,nm, thereby destroying the coherent retracing of the electron path by the Andreev-reflected holes.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figures, submitted to Proceedings 26th International Conference on Low Temperature Physic

Can the Chinese trade surplus be reduced through exchange rate policy?

This paper shows empirically that China’s trade balance is sensitive to fluctuations in the real effective exchange rate of the renminbi, although the size of the surplus is such that exchange rate policy alone will be unable to address the imbalance. One of the main reasons why the reduction in the trade surplus is limited is that Chinese imports are reduced with a real appreciation of the renminbi. By estimating bilateral import equations, we find that it is imports from other Southeast Asian countries which fall. This result reflects the vertical integration of Southeast Asia with China through the 'Asian production network'. We find, in turn, that imports from Germany – which serve China’s domestic demand – behave as one would expect, ie they increase with renminbi real appreciation. All in all, our results raise concerns on the impact of renminbi appreciation on Southeast Asia even if regional currencies do not follow the renminbi’s upward trajectory.China; trade; exports; real exchange rate

Do efficient banking sectors accelerate economic growth in transition countries?

The relationship between financial sector and economic growth in transition countries has been largely ignored in the earlier empirical literature. In this paper, we analyse the finance-growth nexus using a fixed-effects panel model and unbalanced panel data from 25 transition countries during the period 1993-2000. We measure the qualitative development in the banking sectors using the margin between lending and deposit interest rates. Our second variable for the level of financial sector development is the amount of bank credit allocated to the private sector as a share of GDP. According to our results, the interest rate margin is significantly and negatively related to economic growth. This outcome is in line with theoretical models and has important policy implications. On the other hand, a rise in the amount of credit does not seem to accelerate economic growth. The main reasons behind this result could be the numerous banking crises the transition countries have experienced and the soft budget constraints that are still prevalent in many transition countries. Due to these specific characteristics the growth in credit has not always been sustainable and in some cases it may have led to a decline in growth rates.financial sector, transition economies, economic growth, panel data