The first 80 days of the COVID-19 pandemic in the city of Belo Horizonte : from containment to reopening.

Este artigo examina o contexto e as implica??es da pandemia por Covid-19 na cidade de Belo Horizonte (BH) nos primeiros 80 dias da doen?a. Utilizamos um recorte anal?tico descritivo para mensurar a evolu??o dos casos, o excesso de ?bitos, a taxa de transmissibilidade do v?rus e a press?o da doen?a sobre o sistema de sa?de de BH e regi?o, atrav?s da taxa de ocupa??o hospitalar nos leitos p?blicos. Al?m disso, identificamos as principais pol?ticas de conten??o adotadas pelas autoridades locais, bem como as implica??es da redu??o do distanciamento social. Nossos resultados demonstram que o Sistema ?nico de Sa?de (SUS), bem gerido, ? fundamental para o enfrentamento da pandemia e a mitiga??o de suas consequ?ncias para a popula??o. O processo de flexibiliza??o que se inicia tem imposto novos desafios que requerer?o monitoramento atento das autoridades e da sociedade.The paper examines the implications of Co vid-19 pandemic for the city of Belo Horizonte (BH), during the fi rst 80 days of the disease. We use a descriptive-analytical approach to estimate the growth of Covid-19 cases over time, the excess of deaths, the virus? rate of transmissibility, and the consequent burden on the municipal the health system, measured by the rate of occupancy of public hospital beds. Also, we identify the main containment policies adopted by local authorities, and the implications of reopen ing measures and the following reduction of social distancing. Our fi ndings reveal that a well-managed Unifi ed Health System (SUS) is paramount to effectively tackle the pan demic and its consequences for the population. The reopening process has imposed new challenges that will require close monitoring by the authorities and by the Society

Living and dying at older ages: Essays on the Hispanic mortality paradox and the annuity puzzle in the United States

The four chapters comprising this dissertation share a concern to explore issues of health and mortality at older ages in the U.S. The studies deal with three puzzles posited in the literature. First, we examine the Hispanic mortality paradox. Using mortality estimates based on Medicare records, we find that conventionally constructed Hispanic death rates are underestimated, although the results confirm the mortality advantage for Hispanics relative to non-Hispanic whites. We find that foreign-born Hispanics have lower mortality than U.S.-born Hispanics and non-Hispanic whites, and this advantage remains unaffected up to age 100. This result contradicts previous theoretical simulations for both the healthy migrant effect and the assimilation effect, which show mortality of foreign-born Hispanics converging toward that of U.S.-born Hispanic at late adult ages. The second puzzle examined is the unusually low mortality of U.S. whites at older ages, when compared to other low-mortality populations. We find surprisingly similar age patterns of mortality for several population subgroups in the U.S., suggesting that the high proportion of immigrants and people of different ethnic groups among whites does not explain the unusual age pattern of mortality for this population. In the last two essays, we shift attention to the relation of health and mortality at older ages with the “Annuity Puzzle”. We provide evidence of the existence of adverse selection in annuities. Using a multistate model, we show that the mortality of annuitants resembles that of very healthy and high educated people in the population, and that disability rates among annuitants are twice as low as in the population. Finally, we address how differences in health status at retirement influence the decision to purchase a life annuity. We propose a life cycle model in which an elderly person considers the effects of both uncertain future medical expenses and uncertain survival when choosing an optimal level of annuitization. We predict that adverse selection and precautionary motives reduce the utility value of a life annuity by almost 50 percent for people in poor health, and that full annuitization is not the optimal solution for retirees, regardless of health status. Our analysis suggests that offering higher payouts for consumers in case of medical shock can make annuities more attractive for most of the elderly