The impact of the 2008 crisis on top labor incomes in Turkey: A nonparametric analysis

This paper presents a nonparametric analysis of the impact of the 2008 crisis on earnings distribution in Turkey. Using micro-level data from the Household Labor Force Survey (2004-2011), I show that the crisis has operated most visibly above the upper quartile of the earnings distribution. I present three main findings: (1) the share of the top decile -- especially the top percentile -- has increased significantly right after the crisis, (2) the top quartile (i.e., the right tail) of labor incomes in Turkey resembles, on average, a Pareto distribution with a corresponding Gini coefficient of around 0.23, and (3) following the crisis, the earnings differentials have widened above the top quartile and wildly deviated from the Pareto form. I document that the changes observed right after the crisis have mostly been temporary; that is, a normalization process has operated in the aftermath of the crisis. I argue that the health of the domestic banking system might be an important determinant of the effect of large scale financial crises on top labor incomes. A sound banking system can generate income polarization in a country, when global crises lead to asymmetric income reallocations across sectors

Informal versus Formal Search: Which Yields a Better Pay?

Estimates on the effect of job contact method -- i.e., informal versus formal search -- on wage offers vary considerably across studies, with some of them finding a positive correlation between getting help from informal connections and obtaining high-paying jobs, while others finding a negative one. In this paper, I investigate the sources of discrepancies in these empirical results. Using a formal job search framework, I derive an equilibrium wage distribution which reveals that the informal search yields for some groups higher and for some others lower wages than formal search. The key result is the existence of nonmonotonicities in wage offers. Two potential sources of these nonmonotonicities exist: (i) peer effects and (ii) unobserved worker heterogeneity in terms of the inherent cost of maintaining connections within a productive informal network. The model predicts that a greater degree of unobserved heterogeneity tilts the estimates toward producing a positive correlation between informal search and higher wages, whereas stronger peer influences tend to yield a negative correlation. This conclusion informs the empirical research in the sense that identification of the true correlation between job contact methods and wage offers requires a careful assessment of the unobserved heterogeneity and peer influences in the relevant sample

The impact of the 2008 crisis on top labor incomes in Turkey: A nonparametric analysis

This paper presents a nonparametric analysis of the impact of the 2008 crisis on earnings distribution in Turkey. Using micro-level data from the Household Labor Force Survey (2004-2011), I show that the crisis has operated most visibly above the upper quartile of the earnings distribution. I present three main findings: (1) the share of the top decile -- especially the top percentile -- has increased significantly right after the crisis, (2) the top quartile (i.e., the right tail) of labor incomes in Turkey resembles, on average, a Pareto distribution with a corresponding Gini coefficient of around 0.23, and (3) following the crisis, the earnings differentials have widened above the top quartile and wildly deviated from the Pareto form. I document that the changes observed right after the crisis have mostly been temporary; that is, a normalization process has operated in the aftermath of the crisis. I argue that the health of the domestic banking system might be an important determinant of the effect of large scale financial crises on top labor incomes. A sound banking system can generate income polarization in a country, when global crises lead to asymmetric income reallocations across sectors

Day-of-the-Week Effects in Subjective Well-Being: Does Selectivity Matter?

Individuals tend to self-report higher well-being levels on certain days of the weeks than they do on the remaining days, controlling for observables. Using the 2008 release of the British Household Panel Survey, we test whether this empirical observation suffers from selection bias. In other words, we examine if subjective well-being is correlated with unobserved characteristics that lead the individuals to take the interview on specific days of the week. We focus on two distinct well-being measures: job satisfaction and happiness. We provide convincing evidence for both of these measures that the interviews are not randomly distributed across the days of the week. In other words, individuals with certain unobserved characteristics tend to take the interviews selectively. We conclude that a considerable part of the day-of-the-week patterns can be explained by a standard "non-random sorting on unobservables" argument rather than "mood fluctuations." This means that the day-of-the-week estimates reported in the literature are likely to be biased and should be treated cautiously

Is Happiness Contagious? Separating Spillover Externalities from the Group-Level Social Context

We investigate whether individuals feel happier when others around them are happier in broadly defined worker groups. This will be a formal test of spillovers in happiness. Answering this question requires a careful handling of the reflection problem, as it may not be possible to separate the endogenous spillover effects from contextual effects unless an appropriately designed identification strategy is employed. Implementing such a strategy and using the 2008 release of the British Housing Panel Survey (BHPS), we show that the group-level happiness does not have a statistically significant endogenous effect on individual-level happiness in the Great Britain. We report, however, statistically significant contextual effects in various dimensions including age, education, employer status, and health. These results suggest that higher group-level happiness does not spill over to the individual level in neither negative nor positive sense, while the individual-level happiness is instead determined by social context (i.e., the group-level counterparts of certain observed covariates). We also test the relevance of the "Easterlin paradox" and find that our result regarding the effect of income on happiness -- controlling for social interactions effects -- is the group-level analogue of Easterlin's original results

Firm-Size Wage Gaps along the Formal-Informal Divide: Theory and Evidence

Observationally equivalent workers are paid higher wages in larger firms. This fact is often named as the "firm-size wage gap" and is regarded as a key empirical puzzle. Using micro-level data from Turkey, we document a new stylized fact: the firm-size wage gap is more pronounced for informal (unregistered) jobs than for formal (registered) jobs. To explain this fact, we develop a two-stage wage-posting game with market imperfections and segmented markets, the solution to which produces wages as a function of firm size in a well-defined subgame-perfect equilibrium. The model proposes two explanations. First, taxes on formal employment generate a wedge between formal and informal size wage gaps. Thus, government policy can potentially affect the magnitude of the firm-size wage gaps. The second explanation features a market-based framework with strategic interactions. Relative to small firms, large firms typically post higher wages for both formal and informal jobs they open. A high-wage formal job attracts a larger pool of applicants than a high-wage informal job. The larger pool of applicants for the formal job, in turn, allows the firm to somewhat lower the initial wage offer, while this second-round effect is negligible for informal jobs. As a result, size differentials are lower in formal jobs than informal jobs. We argue that the observed patterns in the use of social connections in job search and heterogeneity in job preferences can be used to justify the validity of this second mechanism

The Effects of Compulsory Military Service Exemption on Education and Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from a Natural Experiment

Based on a law enacted in November 1999, males born on or before December 31st 1972 are given the option to benefit from a paid exemption from the compulsory military service in Turkey. Exploiting this natural experiment, we devise an empirical strategy to estimate the intention-to-treat effect of this paid exemption on the education and labor market outcomes of the individuals in the target group. We find that the paid exemption reform reduces the years of schooling among males who are eligible to benefit from the reform relative to the ineligible ones. In particular, the probability of receiving a college degree or above falls among the eligible males. The result is robust to alternative estimation strategies. We find no reduction in education when we implement the same exercises with (i) data on females and (ii) placebo reform dates. The interpretation is that the reform has reduced the incentives to continue education for the purpose of deferring military service. We also find suggestive evidence that the paid exemption reform reduces the labor income for males in the target group. The reduction in earnings is likely due to the reduction in education

Is Happiness Contagious? Separating Spillover Externalities from the Group-Level Social Context

We investigate whether individuals feel happier when others around them are happier in broadly defined worker groups. This will be a formal test of spillovers in happiness. Answering this question requires a careful handling of the reflection problem, as it may not be possible to separate the endogenous spillover effects from contextual effects unless an appropriately designed identification strategy is employed. Implementing such a strategy and using the 2008 release of the British Housing Panel Survey (BHPS), we show that the group-level happiness does not have a statistically significant endogenous effect on individual-level happiness in the Great Britain. We report, however, statistically significant contextual effects in various dimensions including age, education, employer status, and health. These results suggest that higher group-level happiness does not spill over to the individual level in neither negative nor positive sense, while the individual-level happiness is instead determined by social context (i.e., the group-level counterparts of certain observed covariates). We also test the relevance of the "Easterlin paradox" and find that our result regarding the effect of income on happiness -- controlling for social interactions effects -- is the group-level analogue of Easterlin's original results

Day-of-the-Week Effects in Subjective Well-Being: Does Selectivity Matter?

Individuals tend to self-report higher well-being levels on certain days of the weeks than they do on the remaining days, controlling for observables. Using the 2008 release of the British Household Panel Survey, we test whether this empirical observation suffers from selection bias. In other words, we examine if subjective well-being is correlated with unobserved characteristics that lead the individuals to take the interview on specific days of the week. We focus on two distinct well-being measures: job satisfaction and happiness. We provide convincing evidence for both of these measures that the interviews are not randomly distributed across the days of the week. In other words, individuals with certain unobserved characteristics tend to take the interviews selectively. We conclude that a considerable part of the day-of-the-week patterns can be explained by a standard "non-random sorting on unobservables" argument rather than "mood fluctuations." This means that the day-of-the-week estimates reported in the literature are likely to be biased and should be treated cautiously