Simultaneous Determinants of Market Share and Advertising Expenditure under Dynamic Conditions: The Case of a Firm within the Japanese Pharmaceutical Industry

The main objective of this model is to analyse the simultaneous determination of market share and advertising expenditure under dynamic conditions. The authors' empirical analysis is applied to the case of the Eisai Company within the Japanese pharmaceutical industry from 1959 to 1969. Although the model is limited to this particular company and industry, the theoretical formulations and estimation techniques together with the particular distributed lag used may be usefully applied to other cases.

An Oligopolistic Model of a Japanese Pharmaceutical Company

Earlier the first author built an oligopolistic model of the American automobile firms, demonstrating the possibility of econometric model building at the firm level. In the present paper, on the basis of detailed corporate data, we advance this effort further using a more elaborate behavioral hypothesis concerning the behaviors of a firm under oligopolistic situation. Furthermore, we will experiment with elaborate estimation procedures.

A Comparison of Alternative Optimal Models of Advertising Expenditures: Stock Adjustment vs. Control Theoretic Approaches Applied to Japanese Pharmaceutical Companies

Advertising expenditures may well be regarded as a form of investment. Using this concept, Nerlove and Arrow examined an optimal advertising policy for the firm which maximizes present valued cash flow. In this paper the Nerlove-Arrow model is applied by use of the usual stock adjustment formula to empirical data. In addition, since the stock adjustment model is made in an ad-hoc fashion, a suboptimization model is presented as an attempt to derive a estimable equation directly from optimization behaviour. This model is derived from control theoretic suboptimization procedures incorporating an adjustment cost function.Empirical results from both models are compared. Semi-annual data of eight Japanese pharmaceutical companies from 1963 to 1970 are used for this study. In section II the stock adjustment model is formulated and empirical results are presented. In section III the suboptimization model is derived using an invariant imbedding equation applied to the discrete optimization procedure, and empirical results derived from ths model are presented. Section IV compares the two approaches.

A Note on Gamma Distributed Lags

This paper talks about the Solow (10) generalized Koyck's method for distributed lags to a family of J-shaped or unimodel lag distributions given by the Pascal distributions. Jorgenson (5) advances it to what he calls the general Pascal distribution.

Suboptimization Model of Demand for Investment and Labor: An Optimal Control Theoretic Approach

The present paper is an attempt to extend Chetty's work. It derives a suboptimal adaptive control model for the demand for investment and labor by using invariant imbedding equations.

A Survey of Recent Canadian Macro-Econometric Models and Usefulness of Canadian Data for Macro- and Micro-Econometric Model Building Compared with U.S. and Japanese Data

Since Timbergen's pioneering study published in 1939, various econometric models have been built in many countries in the world. The rate of production of econometric models has been increasing, particularly over the last decade. This trend is a product of the following developments: (i) statistical data on various levels of economic activities are more and more readily available; (ii)training in econometric techniques has been widely diffused and improved in undergraduate and graduate economics programs; and (iii) computer facilities are readily accessible, and many econometric estimation methods are now available as canned programs. In this paper, we take the position that the trend towards disaggregated macro models, industry models, and firm models is a useful phenomenon and will help us understand economic activities in a more systematic and logical way. Based on this viewpoint, we survey the current state of Canadian macro-econometric models in section II, and in section III we examine the usefulness of Canadian data for disaggregated macro models in comparison to U.S. and Japanese data. Also, in this section we briefly examine the data necessary for building an industry or firm model. Section IV presents some suggestions for data publications useful for econometric model builders.

Comparison of Bayesian model selection criteria and conditional Kolmogorov test as applied to spot asset pricing models

We compare Bayesian and sample theory model specification criteria. For the Bayesian criteria we use the deviance information criterion and the cumulative density of the mean squared errors of forecast. For the sample theory criterion we use the conditional Kolmogorov test. We use Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to obtain the Bayesian criteria and bootstrap sampling to obtain the conditional Kolmogorov test. Two non-nested models we consider are the CIR and Vasicek models for spot asset prices. Monte Carlo experiments show that the DIC performs better than the cumulative density of the mean squared errors of forecast and the CKT. According to the DIC and the mean squared errors of forecast, the CIR model explains the daily data on uncollateralized Japanese call rate from January 1 1990 to April 18 1996; but according to the CKT, neither the CIR nor Vasicek models explains the daily data

ARMA-GARCH Models: Bayes Estimation Versus MLE, and Bayes Non-stationarity Test

We compare small-sample properties of Bayes estimation and maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of ARMA-GARCH models. Our Monte Carlo experiments indicate that in small sample, the Bayes estimator beats the MLE. We also develop a Bayes method of testing strict stationarity and ergodicity of the conditional variance in the GARCH(1,1) process, near epoch depencenve (NED), and finiteness of unconditional moments of the GARCH(1,1) process by using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) mehtod. We apply this method to test these properties in the ARMA-GARCH models of weekly foreign exchange rates

Unexpected Instability of Family of Repeats (FR), the Critical cis-Acting Sequence Required for EBV Latent Infection, in EBV-BAC Systems

A group of repetitive sequences, known as the Family of Repeats (FR), is a critical cis-acting sequence required for EBV latent infection. The FR sequences are heterogeneous among EBV strains, and they are sometimes subject to partial deletion when subcloned in E. coli-based cloning vectors. However, the FR stability in EBV-BAC (bacterial artificial chromosome) system has never been investigated. We found that the full length FR of the Akata strain EBV was not stably maintained in a BAC vector. By contrast, newly obtained BAC clones of the B95-8 strain of EBV stably maintained the full length FR during recombinant virus production and B-cell transformation. Investigation of primary DNA sequences of Akata–derived EBV-BAC clones indicates that the FR instability is most likely due to a putative secondary structure of the FR region. We conclude that the FR instability in EBV-BAC clones can be a pitfall in E. coli-mediated EBV genetics