Survey measurements of community norms on adolescent girls and young women's (AGYW) sexual behaviour and use of condoms for HIV prevention in Manicaland, East Zimbabwe

Background: Qualitative data suggest pre-marital sex stigma presents a major obstacle to AGYW's use of HIV prevention methods. Lack of social acceptability therefore is included as a barrier to motivation to use condoms in HIV prevention cascades. Representative survey data on community norms are rare but necessary to test the validity of this assumption and measure their contributions to gaps in prevention cascades. Methods: General-population survey participants in Manicaland (ages≥15,N = 9803) were asked if they agreed/disagreed with statements on social norms. AGYW were asked whether community views are an obstacle to their using condoms. Proportions agreeing/disagreeing with these statements were calculated, variations in community members’ views were investigated in multivariable logistic-regression models, and the association between AGYW's perceiving negative community norms and condom use was measured. Results: 93.5%(95%CI,93%-94%) of respondents agreed that ‘Many young women have sex before marriage these days’. 57%(56%-59%) of men and 70%(69%-71%) of women disagreed that ‘If I have a teenage daughter and she has sex before marriage, I would be ok with this’; and 41%(40%-43%) of men and 57%(56%-59%) of women disagreed that ‘If I have a teenage daughter, I would tell her about condoms’. Fathers but not mothers were more likely to disagree with their daughters having sex before marriage (Figure). Similar proportions of parents and other community members were against telling daughters about condoms. 68%(61%-75%) of sexually-active unmarried AGYW said negative community views were unimportant in decisions to use condoms. Condom use didn't differ between those who agreed/disagreed that negative community views are important (46.9% vs. 50.0%; AOR = 0.88, 95%CI, 0.48–1.62; N = 202). Conclusions: Community resistance to condom promotion based on pre-marital sex stigma may be weakening as a barrier to AGYW's motivation to use condoms in Manicaland. Community-led interventions to accelerate this dynamic in social norms and support AGYW's agency could reduce HIV incidence

Strengthening the HIV prevention cascade to maximise epidemiological impact in Eastern Zimbabwe: a modelling study

Background HIV prevention cascades provide a systematic understanding of barriers to prevention. In this study we use mathematical modelling to understand the consequences of these barriers and how the cascade could be strengthened to maximise epidemiological impact, providing potentially important insights for programmes. Methods We use an individual-based model of HIV transmission (PopART-IBM), calibrated to cohort data from eastern Zimbabwe. HIV prevention cascade estimates from this cohort are used as probabilities for indicators in the model representing an individual’s ‘motivation’, ‘access’ and ‘capacity to use effectively’ pre-exposure prophylaxis, voluntary male medical circumcision and condom use. We examine how current barriers affect the number and distribution of HIV infections compared to a no-barrier scenario. Using assumptions about how interventions could strengthen the HIV prevention cascade, we estimate the reduction in HIV infections over a ten-year period through addressing different elements of the cascade. Findings 22,000 new potentially ‘avertable’ HIV infections will occur over the next ten years due to existing HIV prevention cascade barriers, 74·2% of the 28,000 new infections that would occur with existing barriers in a population of approximately 1·2 million adults. Removing these barriers would reduce HIV incidence below the benchmarks for epidemic elimination. Addressing all cascade steps in one priority population is much more impactful than addressing one step across all populations. Interpretation Interventions exists in eastern Zimbabwe to reduce HIV towards elimination, but barriers of motivation, access and effective use prevent their full effect being realised. Interventions need to be multi-layered, and address all steps along the HIV prevention cascade. Models incorporating the HIV prevention cascade can help identify the main barriers to greater impact. Funding National Institutes of Mental Health, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, and Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis funding from the UK Medical Research Council and Department for International Development

Strengthening the HIV prevention cascade to maximise epidemiological impact in eastern Zimbabwe: a modelling study

Background HIV prevention cascades provide a systematic understanding of barriers to prevention. In this study we used mathematical modelling to understand the consequences of these barriers and how the cascade could be strengthened to maximise epidemiological impact, providing potentially important insights for programmes. Methods We used an individual-based model of HIV transmission (PopART-IBM), calibrated to data from the Manicaland cohort from eastern Zimbabwe. HIV prevention cascade estimates from this cohort were used as probabilities for indicators in the model representing an individual's motivation, access, and capacity to effectively use pre-exposure prophylaxis, voluntary male medical circumcision, and condoms. We examined how current barriers affect the number and distribution of HIV infections compared with a no-barrier scenario. Using assumptions about how interventions could strengthen the HIV prevention cascade, we estimated the reduction in HIV infections over a 10-year period through addressing different elements of the cascade. Findings 21 200 new potentially avertable HIV infections will occur over the next 10 years due to existing HIV prevention cascade barriers, 74·2% of the 28 500 new infections that would occur with existing barriers in a population of approximately 1·2 million adults. Removing these barriers would reduce HIV incidence below the benchmarks for epidemic elimination. Addressing all cascade steps in one priority population is substantially more effective than addressing one step across all populations. Interpretation Interventions exist in eastern Zimbabwe to reduce HIV towards elimination, but barriers of motivation, access, and effective use prevent their full effect being realised. Interventions need to be multilayered and address all steps along the HIV prevention cascade. Models incorporating the HIV prevention cascade can help to identify the main barriers to greater effectiveness