Modest, Secure, and Informed: Successful Development in Conflict Zones †

Development programs are often tasked not only with improving human welfare, but also with helping local governments stabilize insecure or fragile environments (World Bank 2011; Berrebi and Olmstead 2011; US Army 2007). 1 Yet theory and evidence are both inconclusive on how development generates stability (Blattman and Miguel 2010, World Bank 2011). Increased economic activity in poorly controlled spaces might attract predatory violence (Hirshleifer 1989; Collier and Hoeffler 2004). Empirically, some aid is violence reducing (Berman, Shapiro, and Felter 2011—henceforth BSF). The literature has not explored optimal program design for violence reduction. Using a panel on development assistance and violent incidents over the first five years of the Iraq War, we compare the effects of several development programs with different characteristics. We are guided by the predictions of an information-centric, or “hearts and minds