Development of trade blocs in an era of globalization: Proximity still matters

This article describes the development of international trade blocs world wide from the 1950s till 2010. We updated the data on international trade flows and introduced a new trade bloc variable based on the intramax hierarchical clustering technique, which defines trade blocs on actual trade intensities and not - as was preciously done - by traditional geographic and political factors: such as the division into a triad of economic regions based on North America, the European Union and Japan. Nevertheless, the results of intramax hierarchical clustering indicate that actual trade flows are very much influenced by geographical and political factors; after all, proximity matters. To explain how mechanism of globalization changed trade patterns over the last half century and how - in the end - proximity is one of the most explanatory variables - we furthermore apply multivariate analysis with gravity-model based variables aims to explain which geographical, political and cultural factors do contribute to the (importance of) proximity in trade partners. In addition we also apply GIS to analyze patterns and proximity issues.

Development of trade blocs in an era of globalization: Proximity still matters

This article describes the development of international trade blocs world wide from the 1950s till 2010. We updated the data on international trade flows and introduced a new trade bloc variable based on the intramax hierarchical clustering technique, which defines trade blocs on actual trade intensities and not - as was preciously done - by traditional geographic and political factors: such as the division into a triad of economic regions based on North America, the European Union and Japan. Nevertheless, the results of intramax hierarchical clustering indicate that actual trade flows are very much influenced by geographical and political factors; after all, proximity matters. To explain how mechanism of globalization changed trade patterns over the last half century and how - in the end - proximity is one of the most explanatory variables - we furthermore apply multivariate analysis with gravity-model based variables aims to explain which geographical, political and cultural factors do contribute to the (importance of) proximity in trade partners. In addition we also apply GIS to analyze patterns and proximity issues

The Belt and Road Initiative’s effect on supply-chain trade:evidence from structural gravity equations

This article considers the effect of China’s Belt and Road Initiative on supply-chain trade for 64 economies in the period 2002–2011. We employ a structural gravity equation to estimate the impact of trade-cost reducing measures—notably infrastructural improvements and the creation of free trade agreements—on supply-chain trade and welfare in general equilibrium. We find that infrastructural investments will yield asymmetric benefits to China, Russia and Southeast Asian countries stemming from greater European market access. Our results also suggest that China’s alternatives to foster (inter)regional economic growth through the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership and the Trans-Pacific Partnership offer much less attractive economic prospects

EXITitis in the UK:Gravity Estimates in the Aftermath of Brexit

The withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union has had disruptive effects on international trade. As part of its ‘Global Britain’ strategy in the wake of Brexit, the UK is pursuing a series of Free Trade Agreements with countries around the world, including Canada, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Norway, Switzerland, Turkey and possibly the United States. Closer to home, the UK is under mounting pressure to dissuade Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales from seeking independence to regain the severed ties with the EU. We analyze the economic consequences of these scenarios with a state-of-the-art structural gravity model for major economies around the world. We find that ‘Global Britain’ yields insufficient trade creation to compensate for Brexit-induced trade losses. Our results also reveal that secession from the UK in itself would inflict greater post-Brexit economic harm on the devolved nations of Great Britain. Nevertheless, these effects could be offset when secession from the UK is combined with regained EU membership