Análisis Actuarial de la indemnización por necesidad de ayuda de tercera persona prevista en la Ley 35/2015

La Ley 35/2015, de 22 de septiembre, establece un nuevo sistema para la valoración de los daños y perjuicios causados a las personas en accidentes de circulación, el cual incluye indemnizaciones cuya finalidad es compensar los perjuicios patrimoniales que sufren los perjudicados, ya se trate de lucro cesante o de daño emergente. Conforme a lo establecido en la propia Ley, las más relevantes de esas indemnizaciones requieren una valoración actuarial, siendo ése el caso de la indemnización por necesidad de ayuda de tercera persona. El presente trabajo tiene por objeto analizar la metodología de valoración actuarial que, para esta indemnización, se incluye en las “Bases Técnicas Actuariales del Baremo”, así como las hipótesis biométricas y económico-financieras que se asumen y los resultados que se obtienen; y todo ello en el marco de los principios y criterios que la Ley 35/2015 establece con carácter general para el sistema y en particular para dicha indemnización.Universidad de Málaga. Campus de Excelencia Internacional Andalucía Tech

Assessing The Students’ Prospective Perceptions Of The Final Master Project In Actuarial Science

The final master project plays a key role in the curriculum design of the Actuarial Science Master degree at the University of Málaga. Students have to fulfil their projects at the end of the two-years study program in order to get the master’s degree. The nature of the projects requires the combination of a wide range of skills, which includes analytical and technical ones, as well as professional and soft skills. From this point of view, completing a final master project in this study program can become an interesting opportunity to experiment with real tasks of the actuarial profession before entering the labour market. Furthermore, the Actuarial Science Master degree at the University of Málaga offers the possibility of including a working actuary as a second supervisor, besides the academic one. Simulating or working with real problems in the field of Actuarial Science in the final master project, which use to be complex in nature and often multidisciplinary, also constitutes a useful way to integrate the contents of the different courses of the study program and get them in context. However, the quick transition of our students to the professional market, mainly through the internships, sometimes becomes a hurdle to properly finish the final projects in the scheduled academic calendar. In an attempt to improve the satisfaction and success rates, a group of lecturers are conducting a broad study about the final master project in Actuarial Science, that includes subjective aspects.Universidad de Málaga. Campus de Excelencia Internacional Andalucía Tec

Evaluation of European Deposit Insurance Scheme Funding Based on Risk Analysis

We carry out a quantitative analysis of the financing measures proposed for the European Deposit Insurance Scheme (EDIS) regarding the target level of the fund and the contribution scheme of member entities. We estimate the loss distribution of the EDIS considering different sources of systemic risk associated with the correlations between bank assets inside and outside the eurozone countries, and we analyse the sensitivity of the results to bank portfolio risk. We determine the variations in the cost of insurance due to the relative risk profile of banks in the Banking Union and the loss-absorbing capacity of the contribution made by countries with the methodologies proposed by the European Banking Authority (2015). Our findings show how the interconnection between banks of different countries has an important influence on accumulated losses in the tail of the distribution, although the correlation within a country exerts a stronger effect. Both aspects must be considered in the calibration of the target level of the fund to avoid underestimating financing needs. Likewise, deterioration in the quality of bank portfolios produces a significant reduction in the fund's loss-absorbing capacity, which calls into question its soundness in times of economic recession. Finally, we assess the impact of the new contribution scheme on moral hazard and the possibility of cross-border subsidies between the countries of the Banking Union.Universidad de Málaga. Campus de Excelencia Internacional Andalucía Tec

Reintegration of disabled workers to labor market. A stochastic analysis based on the continuous sample of working lives

The public social security system provides a wide range of benefits. The different contingencies for which it provides coverage provide security for those exposed. However, in order to determine the objectivity of the amount of benefits, it is necessary to analyse the risk factors involved. Total Permanent Disability (TPD) provides protection for people who are unable to carry out their usual profession due to reduced functionality. The compatibility of this benefit with a job other than the usual one prior to the occurrence of the contingency raises doubts about the objectivity and fairness of the benefit, which is due to the complexity and variety of situations in which the subject may find himself. This paper questions the current differentiation in the amount of the benefit and demonstrates the consequences of using a simple system to measure a complex risk, showing that the variables of sex, age or years of incapacity are factors that have a significant influence on it, and should therefore be used to guarantee an equitable and fair system of protection.Universidad de Málaga. Campus de Excelencia Internacional Andalucía Tech

Evaluation of european deposit insurance scheme funding based on risk analysis

We carry out a quantitative analysis of the financing measures proposed for the European Deposit Insurance Scheme (EDIS) regarding the target level of the fund and the contribution scheme of member entities. We estimate the loss distribution of the EDIS considering different sources of systemic risk associated with the correlations between bank assets and we analyse the sensitivity of the results to bank portfolio risk. Our findings show how the interconnection between banks of different countries has an important influence on accumulated losses in the tail of the distribution. Likewise deterioration in the quality of bank portfolios produces a significant reduction in the fund's loss-absorbing capacity, which calls into question its soundness in times of economic recession. Finally, the contribution scheme provides more equitable risk measures and may be an appropriate incentive to reduce moral hazard in the Banking Union.Universidad de Málaga. Campus de Excelencia Internacional Andalucía Tech

The roles of the independent actuary in the assessment of damages caused to persons by traffic accidents according to the Spanish legal framework

The roles of the independent actuary in the assessment of damages caused to persons by traffic accidents according to the Spanish legal frameworkUniversidad de Málaga. Campus de Excelencia Internacional Andalucía Tech

Nuevos Instrumentos para la Gestión de los Riesgos de Longevidad/Mortalidad

En las últimas décadas existe un interés creciente por la medición, gestión y valoración de los riesgos de longevidad y de mortalidad. Este interés se fundamenta principalmente, en el incremento de la esperanza de vida en los países desarrollados y a los efectos que dicho incremento puede conllevar tanto para el sector público –sistemas de previsión social públicos- como privado –entidades de seguros y sistemas de previsión social privados- en términos de amento de su exposición al riesgo de longevidad. Asimismo, en la última década han surgido diversos instrumentos financieros que proporcionan flujos de caja que están vinculados a un índice, el cual a su vez depende de la mortalidad de una determinada población. Estos instrumentos bien han sido propuestos por la comunidad académica desde un punto de vista teórico o bien han sido emitidos en los mercados financieros tanto por bancos de inversión como por entidades reaseguradoras. El objetivo del presente trabajo es analizar los riesgos de longevidad y de mortalidad, distinguiendo entre sus componentes sistemática e idiosincrásica, y estudiar cómo dichos instrumentos financieros pueden emplearse para gestionar estos riesgos, especialmente el de longevidad sistemático. Para ello, se exponen los instrumentos financieros mencionados más arriba, distinguiendo entre aquéllos que se negocian o son susceptibles de negociarse en mercados financieros organizados, (bonos catastróficos; de longevidad y/o supervivencia) de aquéllos que se negocian o son susceptibles de negociarse en mercados no organizados(contratos a plazo, de permuta financiera y opciones). A continuación, se estudia cómo dichos instrumentos pueden utilizarse para gestionar el riesgo de longevidad sistemático y se ahonda en los problemas que su utilización plantea desde la óptica de la gestión de los riesgos financieros, pues la cobertura de cualquier riesgo financiero no elimina totalmente su exposición existiendo un remanente en forma de exposición a otros riesgos financieros distintos al original. Así, se consideran los comunes a las operaciones de cobertura de cualquier riesgo financiero como, por ejemplo, el de crédito, destacándose los que son específicos de la cobertura del riesgo de longevidad sistemático tales como, por ejemplo, el de base y el de selección adversa. Por último se concluye que, aunque estos instrumentos constituyen una alternativa a los que tradicionalmente ha utilizado el sector privado para la gestión del riesgo de longevidad, en la actualidad plantean diversas cuestiones de tipo teórico, práctico y ético que, por su importancia, requieren un estudio en profundidad.El objetivo del presente trabajo es estudiar cómo diversos instrumentos financieros que proporcionan flujos de caja que se encuentran vinculados a un índice relacionado con la mortalidad de una determinada población, pueden ser utilizados por una entidad aseguradora o un sistema de previsión social privado para cubrirse del riesgo de longevidad sistemático. Asimismo, se analizan los riesgos financieros que conllevan la utilización de este tipo de coberturas. Por último se concluye que, aunque estos instrumentos constituyen una alternativa a los instrumentos tradicionales que el sector privado ha utilizado para la gestión del riesgo de longevidad, en la actualidad plantean diversas cuestiones de tipo teórico, práctico y ético que, por su importancia, requieren un estudio en profundidad

The Professional University Degree Of Actuary Through Bloom's Taxonomy

The aim of this paper is to determine the characteristics of the MScAFS in terms of how the Syllabus of the AAE sets out the subjects, organised into sub-areas, and the degree of development of the competences required to obtain the professional qualification of actuary in the EU. For this purpose, they are classified and quantified according to the type of conceptual development and the degree of in-depth study. This makes it possible to obtain the Master's degree graduate profile, which must coincide with the professional qualification agreed in the AAE. This profile is different from other master's degrees, whether complementary academic or with a research profile, and from other professions, which may or may not have one or more of the characteristics of the actuarial profession.Universidad de Málaga. Campus de Excelencia Internacional Andalucía Tech

Tree-based ensembles unveil the microhabitat suitability for the invasive bleak (Alburnus alburnus L.) and pumpkinseed (Lepomis gibbosus L.): Introducing XGBoost to eco-informatics

[EN] Random Forests (RFs) and Gradient Boosting Machines (GBMs) are popular approaches for habitat suitability modelling in environmental flow assessment. However, both present some limitations theoretically solved by alternative tree-based ensemble techniques (e.g. conditional RFs or oblique RFs). Among them, eXtreme Gradient Boosting machines (XGBoost) has proven to be another promising technique that mixes subroutines developed for RFs and GBMs. To inspect the capabilities of these alternative techniques, RFs and GBMs were compared with: conditional RFs, oblique RFs and XGBoost by modelling, at the micro-scale, the habitat suitability for the invasive bleak (Alburnus alburnus L.) and pumpkinseed (Lepomis gibbosus L). XGBoost outperformed the other approaches, particularly conditional and oblique RFs, although there were no statistical differences with standard RFs and GBMs. The partial dependence plots highlighted the lacustrine origins of pumpkinseed and the preference for lentic habitats of bleak. However, the latter depicted a larger tolerance for rapid microhabitats found in run-type river segments, which is likely to hinder the management of flow regimes to control its invasion. The difference in the computational burden and, especially, the characteristics of datasets on microhabitat use (low data prevalence and high overlapping between categories) led us to conclude that, in the short term, XGBoost is not destined to replace properly optimised RFs and GBMs in the process of habitat suitability modelling at the micro-scale.This project had the support of Fundacion Biodiversidad, of Spanish Ministry for Ecological Transition. We want to thank the volunteering students of the Universitat Politecnica de Valencia, Marina de Miguel, Carlos A. Puig-Mengual, Cristina Barea, Rares Hugianu, and Pau Rodriguez. R. Munoz-Mas benefitted from a postdoctoral Juan de la Cierva fellowship from the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities (ref. FJCI-2016-30829). This research was supported by the Government of Catalonia (ref. 2017 SGR 548).Muñoz-Mas, R.; Gil-Martínez, E.; Oliva-Paterna, FJ.; Belda, E.; Martinez-Capel, F. (2019). Tree-based ensembles unveil the microhabitat suitability for the invasive bleak (Alburnus alburnus L.) and pumpkinseed (Lepomis gibbosus L.): Introducing XGBoost to eco-informatics. Ecological Informatics. 53:1-12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoinf.2019.100974S1125

Measurement of the (eta c)(1S) production cross-section in proton-proton collisions via the decay (eta c)(1S) -> p(p)over-bar

The production of the $\eta_c (1S)$ state in proton-proton collisions is probed via its decay to the $p \bar{p}$ final state with the LHCb detector, in the rapidity range $2.0 6.5$ GeV/c. The cross-section for prompt production of $\eta_c (1S)$ mesons relative to the prompt $J/\psi$ cross-section is measured, for the first time, to be $\sigma_{\eta_c (1S)}/\sigma_{J/\psi} = 1.74 \pm 0.29 \pm 0.28 \pm 0.18 _{B}$ at a centre-of-mass energy $\sqrt{s} = 7$ TeV using data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 0.7 fb$^{-1}$, and $\sigma_{\eta_c (1S)}/\sigma_{J/\psi} = 1.60 \pm 0.29 \pm 0.25 \pm 0.17 _{B}$ at $\sqrt{s} = 8$ TeV using 2.0 fb$^{-1}$. The uncertainties quoted are, in order, statistical, systematic, and that on the ratio of branching fractions of the $\eta_c (1S)$ and $J/\psi$ decays to the $p \bar{p}$ final state. In addition, the inclusive branching fraction of $b$-hadron decays into $\eta_c (1S)$ mesons is measured, for the first time, to be $B ( b \rightarrow \eta_c X ) = (4.88 \pm 0.64 \pm 0.25 \pm 0.67 _{B}) \times 10^{-3}$, where the third uncertainty includes also the uncertainty on the $J/\psi$ inclusive branching fraction from $b$-hadron decays. The difference between the $J/\psi$ and $\eta_c (1S)$ meson masses is determined to be $114.7 \pm 1.5 \pm 0.1$ MeV/c$^2$.The production of the $\eta _c (1S)$ state in proton-proton collisions is probed via its decay to the $p\overline{p}$ final state with the LHCb detector, in the rapidity range $2.0 6.5 \mathrm{{\,GeV/}{ c}}$ . The cross-section for prompt production of $\eta _c (1S)$ mesons relative to the prompt ${{ J}}/{\psi }$ cross-section is measured, for the first time, to be $\sigma _{\eta _c (1S)}/\sigma _{{{{ J}}/{\psi }}} = 1.74\, \pm \,0.29\, \pm \, 0.28\, \pm \,0.18 _{{\mathcal{B}}}$ at a centre-of-mass energy ${\sqrt{s}} = 7 {~\mathrm{TeV}}$ using data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 0.7 fb$^{-1}$ , and $\sigma _{\eta _c (1S)}/\sigma _{{{{ J}}/{\psi }}} = 1.60 \pm 0.29 \pm 0.25 \pm 0.17 _{{\mathcal{B}}}$ at ${\sqrt{s}} = 8 {~\mathrm{TeV}}$ using 2.0 fb$^{-1}$ . The uncertainties quoted are, in order, statistical, systematic, and that on the ratio of branching fractions of the $\eta _c (1S)$ and ${{ J}}/{\psi }$ decays to the $p\overline{p}$ final state. In addition, the inclusive branching fraction of ${b}$ -hadron decays into $\eta _c (1S)$ mesons is measured, for the first time, to be ${\mathcal{B}}( b {\rightarrow } \eta _c X ) = (4.88\, \pm \,0.64\, \pm \,0.29\, \pm \, 0.67 _{{\mathcal{B}}}) \times 10^{-3}$ , where the third uncertainty includes also the uncertainty on the ${{ J}}/{\psi }$ inclusive branching fraction from ${b}$ -hadron decays. The difference between the ${{ J}}/{\psi }$ and $\eta _c (1S)$ meson masses is determined to be $114.7 \pm 1.5 \pm 0.1 {\mathrm {\,MeV\!/}c^2}$ .The production of the $\eta_c (1S)$ state in proton-proton collisions is probed via its decay to the $p \bar{p}$ final state with the LHCb detector, in the rapidity range $2.0 6.5$ GeV/c. The cross-section for prompt production of $\eta_c (1S)$ mesons relative to the prompt $J/\psi$ cross-section is measured, for the first time, to be $\sigma_{\eta_c (1S)}/\sigma_{J/\psi} = 1.74 \pm 0.29 \pm 0.28 \pm 0.18 _{B}$ at a centre-of-mass energy $\sqrt{s} = 7$ TeV using data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 0.7 fb$^{-1}$, and $\sigma_{\eta_c (1S)}/\sigma_{J/\psi} = 1.60 \pm 0.29 \pm 0.25 \pm 0.17 _{B}$ at $\sqrt{s} = 8$ TeV using 2.0 fb$^{-1}$. The uncertainties quoted are, in order, statistical, systematic, and that on the ratio of branching fractions of the $\eta_c (1S)$ and $J/\psi$ decays to the $p \bar{p}$ final state. In addition, the inclusive branching fraction of $b$-hadron decays into $\eta_c (1S)$ mesons is measured, for the first time, to be $B ( b \rightarrow \eta_c X ) = (4.88 \pm 0.64 \pm 0.29 \pm 0.67 _{B}) \times 10^{-3}$, where the third uncertainty includes also the uncertainty on the $J/\psi$ inclusive branching fraction from $b$-hadron decays. The difference between the $J/\psi$ and $\eta_c (1S)$ meson masses is determined to be $114.7 \pm 1.5 \pm 0.1$ MeV/c$^2$