Declining partisan representation at the sub-national level: assessing and explaining the strengthening of local lists in Italian municipalities (1995–2014)

In Western democracies political representation at the national level is still dominated by (old and new) political parties. This article shows that, instead, the representative role of parties may have declined at the local level. In Italy, for instance, the average share of municipal seats held by non-partisan councillors has almost tripled in the last 20 years. By using an original data set, this article classifies different types of Italian local lists, assesses their relationship with traditional parties and explains territorial variation in their success. The results suggest that local lists have become substantially stronger in small municipalities, in regions characterised by weak or declining political subcultures and where regionalist parties are absent or irrelevant. Finally, contrary to the expectation that declining partisanship is linked to modernisation processes and direct civic engagement, local lists have achieved their best results in the less developed areas of the country

Government institutions and the dynamics of urban growth in China

Economic growth in China in recent decades has largely rested on the dynamism of its cities. High economic growth has coincided with measures aimed at improving the efficiency of local governments and with a mounting political drive to curb corruption. Yet the connection between government institutions and urban growth in China remains poorly understood. This paper is the first to look into the link between government efficiency and corruption, on the one hand, and urban growth in China, on the other hand and to assess what is the role of institutions relative to more traditional factors for economic growth in Chinese cities. Using panel data for 283 cities over the period between 2003 and 2014, the results show that the urban growth in China is a consequence of a combination of favorable human capital, innovation, density, local conditions, foreign direct investment, and city-level government institutions. Both government quality—especially for those cities with the best governments—and the fight against corruption at the city level have a direct effect on urban growth. Measures to tackle corruption at the provincial level matter in a more indirect way, by raising or lowering the returns of other growth-inducing factors

Local representative democracy and protest politics:the case of the Five-star Movement

In recent years, protest politics has become a relevant phenomenon in various European countries. Italy has witnessed the rise of the Five-star Movement (M5S), an anti-establishment party, which, at the 2013 general election, obtained one-fourth of the total votes. However, the story of this ‘party-movement’ started at the local level, as a civic network aimed at changing administrative practices in municipal government. By using an original dataset on representation in 671 Italian municipalities from 2010 to 2014, this article aims to explain not only the subnational political success of the M5S but also the challenges and contradictions that a newly formed movement faces in multi-level electoral arenas

Long-term mortality prediction after operations for type A ascending aortic dissection

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>There are few long-term mortality prediction studies after acute aortic dissection (AAD) Type A and none were performed using new models such as neural networks (NN) or support vector machines (SVM) which may show a higher discriminatory potency than standard multivariable models.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We used 32 risk factors identified by Literature search and previously assessed in short-term outcome investigations. Models were trained (50%) and validated (50%) on 2 random samples from a consecutive 235-patient cohort. NN were run only on patients with complete data for all included variables (N = 211); SVM on the overall group. Discrimination was assessed by receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (AUC) and Gini's coefficients along with classification performance.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>There were 84 deaths (36%) occurring at 564 ± 48 days (95%CI from 470 to 658 days). Patients with complete variables had a slightly lower death rate (60 of 211, 28%). NN classified 44 of 60 (73%) dead patients and 147 of 151 (97%) long-term survivors using 5 covariates: immediate post-operative chronic renal failure, circulatory arrest time, the type of surgery on ascending aorta plus hemi-arch, extracorporeal circulation time and the presence of Marfan habitus. Global accuracies of training and validation NN were excellent with AUC respectively 0.871 and 0.870 but classification errors were high among patients who died. Training SVM, using a larger number of covariates, showed no false negative or false positive cases among 118 randomly selected patients (error = 0%, AUC 1.0) whereas validation SVM, among 117 patients, provided 5 false negative and 11 false positive cases (error = 22%, AUC 0.821, p < 0.01 versus NN results). An html file was produced to adopt and manipulate the selected parameters for practical predictive purposes.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Both NN and SVM accurately selected a few operative and immediate post-operative factors and the Marfan habitus as long-term mortality predictors in AAD Type A. Although these factors were not new per se, their combination may be used in practice to index death risk post-operatively with good accuracy.</p

Prato: The Social Construction of an Industrial City Facing Processes of Cultural Hybridization

This chapter deals with a widely studied case, that is, Prato, a middle-sized city with rooted industrial traditions, in the Centre of Italy. Prato is a textile industrial district embedded in the so-called Third Italy—an area characterized by the presence of small firms spread throughout the territory, linked together in supply and subcontracting relationships—which, in the last twenty years, has undergone a profound transformation as a consequence of the crisis of textile and immigration, leading to the formation of a large Chinese community. The related changes brought with them problems of social cohesion and sustainable development. The authors address these issues by analyzing both academic and public discourses on Prato. Their basic idea is that common stereotypes act as drivers of a public discourse that prevents the city to re-negotiate its identity. The analysis concludes that different forms of hybridization—particularly cultural hybridization—are occurring, which would need further investigations

Artificial Neural Networks Versus Multiple Logistic Regression to Predict 30-Day Mortality After Operations For Type A Ascending Aortic Dissection§

There are few comparative reports on the overall accuracy of neural networks (NN), assessed only versus multiple logistic regression (LR), to predict events in cardiovascular surgery studies and none has been performed among acute aortic dissection (AAD) Type A patients. OBJECTIVES: We aimed at investigating the predictive potential of 30-day mortality by a large series of risk factors in AAD Type A patients comparing the overall performance of NN versus LR. METHODS: We investigated 121 plus 87 AAD Type A patients consecutively operated during 7 years in two Centres. Forced and stepwise NN and LR solutions were obtained and compared, using receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (AUC) and their 95% confidence intervals (CI) and Gini's coefficients. Both NN and LR models were re-applied to data from the second Centre to adhere to a methodological imperative with NN. RESULTS: Forced LR solutions provided AUC 87.9+/-4.1% (CI: 80.7 to 93.2%) and 85.7+/-5.2% (CI: 78.5 to 91.1%) in the first and second Centre, respectively. Stepwise NN solution of the first Centre had AUC 90.5+/-3.7% (CI: 83.8 to 95.1%). The Gini's coefficients for LR and NN stepwise solutions of the first Centre were 0.712 and 0.816, respectively. When the LR and NN stepwise solutions were re-applied to the second Centre data, Gini's coefficients were, respectively, 0.761 and 0.850. Few predictors were selected in common by LR and NN models: the presence of pre-operative shock, intubation and neurological symptoms, immediate post-operative presence of dialysis in continuous and the quantity of post-operative bleeding in the first 24 h. The length of extracorporeal circulation, post-operative chronic renal failure and the year of surgery were specifically detected by NN. CONCLUSIONS: Different from the International Registry of AAD, operative and immediate post-operative factors were seen as potential predictors of short-term mortality. We report a higher overall predictive accuracy with NN than with LR. However, the list of potential risk factors to predict 30-day mortality after AAD Type A by NN model is not enlarged significantly

Usefulness of bronchoalveolar lavage in suspect COVID-19 repeatedly negative swab test and interstitial lung disease

The diagnosis of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) relies on nasopharyngeal swab, which shows a 20–30% risk of false negativity [1]. Bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) is reported to be useful in patients with pulmonary interstitial infiltrates on high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT). We investigated the usefulness of BAL in symptomatic patients with positive HRCT and a repeatedly negative swab test (‘grey zone’)