Agricultural Applications Of Weather Derivatives

Weather derivatives are currently a fast growing derivatives sector.  The purpose of this article is to examine the background of the weather derivatives market and some of its benefits for agricultural risk management.  In addition, this article is meant to serve as an overview of the benefits and uses of weather derivatives for those who may not be otherwise exposed to this type of market.  This article examines the structure of Heating Degree Day and Cooling Degree Day contracts along with agricultural hedging uses of weather derivatives, notably, a use unique in this market, hedging of volumetric risk

Accounts Receivable Factoring As A Response To Weak Governance: Panel Data Evidence

Accounts receivable factoring is a financing arrangement that occurs when a business sells its accounts receivables.  Factoring has emerged as the most important source of working capital for small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) in many economies because weak laws, poor enforcement, and the associated informational opacity put the SMEs at a disadvantage when borrowing.  This paper presents an empirical analysis of cross-country differences in factoring activity to determine whether the quality of governance is a significant determinant of the level of factoring activity.  Our analysis is based on a reduced form model that relates a country’s factoring activity (turnover) to the quality of governance, while controlling for other determinants of factoring discussed in the literature.  We use data for a panel of 59 countries, over the period 1995 – 2005.  Our findings support the hypothesis that factoring is more prevalent in economies with weak governance.  Additionally, we present evidence that factor turnover is decreasing in the incidence of corruption

Barriers to colonoscopy in UK colorectal cancer screening programmes: Qualitative interviews with ethnic minority groups

OBJECTIVE: People from ethnic minority backgrounds are less likely to attend colonoscopy, following faecal immunochemical test screening, and are more likely to be diagnosed with colorectal cancer at an advanced stage as a result. The aim of this research was to explore the barriers and facilitators to attending colonoscopy, perceived by ethnic minority groups living in the United Kingdom. METHODS: Semi-structured online and telephone interviews were conducted with thirty men and women of Black-African(n=5), Black-Caribbean(n=5), South Asian(n=10) and White British(n=10) descent. Participants were eligible for screening, but had not necessarily been invited for colonoscopy. All interviews were conducted in the participant's first language and were assessed using Framework-analysis, in line with a conceptual framework developed from previous interviews with healthcare professionals. RESULTS: Five thematic groups of barriers and facilitators were developed: 'Locus of control', 'Cultural attitudes and beliefs', 'Individual beliefs, knowledge and personal experiences with colonoscopy and cancer', 'Reliance on family and friends' and 'Health concerns'. Differences were observed, between ethnic groups, for: 'Locus of control', 'Cultural attitudes and beliefs' and 'Reliance on family and friends'. Black and South Asian participants frequently described the decision to attend colonoscopy as lying with 'God' (Muslims, specifically), 'the doctor', or 'family' (Locus of control). Black and South Asian participants also reported relying on friends and family for 'language, transport and emotional support' (Reliance on family and friends). Black-African participants, specifically, described cancer as 'socially taboo' (Cultural attitudes and beliefs). CONCLUSIONS: The results highlight several targets for culturally-tailored interventions to make colonoscopy more equitable. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved

Limits on the 2.2-μm contrast ratio of the close-orbiting planet HD 189733b

We obtained 238 spectra of the close-orbiting extrasolar giant planet HD 189733b with resolution R∼ 15 000 during one night of observations with the Near-Infrared High-Resolution Spectrograph (NIRSPEC), at the Keck II Telescope. We have searched for planetary absorption signatures in the 2.0-2.4 μm region where H2O and CO are expected to be the dominant atmospheric opacities. We employ a phase-dependent orbital model and tomographic techniques to search for the planetary absorption signatures in the combined stellar and planetary spectra. Because potential absorption signatures are hidden in the noise of each single exposure, we use a model list of lines to apply a spectral deconvolution. The resulting mean profile possesses a signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) that is 20 times greater than that found in individual lines. Our spectral time series thus yields spectral signatures with a mean S/N = 2720. We are unable to detect a planetary signature at a contrast ratio of log10(Fp/F*) =−3.40, with 63.8 per cent confidence. Our findings are not consistent with model predictions which nevertheless give a good fit to mid-infrared observations of HD 189733b. The 1σ result is a factor of 1.7 times less than the predicted 2.185-μm planet/star flux ratio of log10(Fp/F*) ∼−3.1

Ecological risk assessment for deep-sea mining

Ecological risk assessment for deep-sea mining is challenging, given the data-poor state of knowledge of deep-sea ecosystem structure, process, and vulnerability. Polling and a scale-intensity-consequence approach (SICA) were used in an expert elicitation survey to rank risk sources and perceived vulnerabilities of habitats associated with seabed nodule, sulfide, and crust mineral resources. Experts identified benthic habitats associated with seabed minerals as most vulnerable to habitat removal with a high degree of certainty. Resource-associated benthic and pelagic habitats were also perceived to be at risk from plumes generated during mining activities, although there was not always consensus regarding vulnerabilities to specific risk sources from different types of plumes. Even for risk sources where habitat vulnerability measures were low, high uncertainties suggest that these risks may not yet be dismissed. Survey outcomes also underscore the need for risk assessment to progress from expert opinion with low certainty to data-rich and ecosystem-relevant scientific research assessments to yield much higher certainty. This would allow for design and deployment of effective precautionary and mitigation efforts in advance of commercial exploitation, and adaptive management strategies would allow for regulatory and guideline modifications in response to new knowledge and greater certainty

National and sub-national under-five mortality profiles in Peru: a basis for informed policy decisions

BACKGROUND: Information on profiles for under-five causes of death is important to guide choice of child-survival interventions. Global level data have been published, but information at country level is scarce. We aimed at defining national and departmental trends and profiles of under-five mortality in Peru from 1996 through 2000. METHODS: We used the Ministry of Health registered under-five mortality data. For correction of under-registration, a model life-table that fitted the age distribution of the population and of registered deaths was identified for each year. The mortality rates corresponding to these model life-tables were then assigned to each department in each particular year. Cumulative reduction in under-five mortality rate in the 1996–2000 period was estimated calculating the annual reduction slope for each department. Departmental level mortality profiles were constructed. Differences in mortality profiles and in mortality reduction between coastal, andean and jungle regions were also assessed. RESULTS: At country level, only 4 causes (pneumonia, diarrhoea, neonatal diseases and injuries) accounted for 68% of all deaths in 1996, and for 62% in 2000. There was 32.7% of under-five death reduction from 1996 to 2000. Diarrhoea and pneumonia deaths decreased by 84.5% and 41.8%, respectively, mainly in the andean region, whereas deaths due to neonatal causes and injuries decreased by 37.2% and 21.7%. For 1996–2000 period, the andean, coast and jungle regions accounted for 52.4%, 33.1% and 14.4% of deaths, respectively. These regions represent 41.0%, 46.4% and 12.6% of under-five population. Both diarrhoea and pneumonia constitute 30.6% of under-five deaths in the andean region. As a proportion, neonatal deaths remained stable in the country from 1996 to 2000, accounting for about 30% of under-five deaths, whereas injuries and "other" causes, including congenital anomalies, increased by about 5%. CONCLUSION: Under-five mortality declined substantially in all departments from 1996 to 2000, which is explained mostly by reduction in diarrhoea and pneumonia deaths, particularly in the andean region. There is the need to emphasize interventions to reduce neonatal deaths and emerging causes of death such as injuries and congenital anomalies

LSST: from Science Drivers to Reference Design and Anticipated Data Products

(Abridged) We describe here the most ambitious survey currently planned in the optical, the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST). A vast array of science will be enabled by a single wide-deep-fast sky survey, and LSST will have unique survey capability in the faint time domain. The LSST design is driven by four main science themes: probing dark energy and dark matter, taking an inventory of the Solar System, exploring the transient optical sky, and mapping the Milky Way. LSST will be a wide-field ground-based system sited at Cerro Pach\'{o}n in northern Chile. The telescope will have an 8.4 m (6.5 m effective) primary mirror, a 9.6 deg$^2$ field of view, and a 3.2 Gigapixel camera. The standard observing sequence will consist of pairs of 15-second exposures in a given field, with two such visits in each pointing in a given night. With these repeats, the LSST system is capable of imaging about 10,000 square degrees of sky in a single filter in three nights. The typical 5$\sigma$ point-source depth in a single visit in $r$ will be $\sim 24.5$ (AB). The project is in the construction phase and will begin regular survey operations by 2022. The survey area will be contained within 30,000 deg$^2$ with $\delta<+34.5^\circ$, and will be imaged multiple times in six bands, $ugrizy$, covering the wavelength range 320--1050 nm. About 90\% of the observing time will be devoted to a deep-wide-fast survey mode which will uniformly observe a 18,000 deg$^2$ region about 800 times (summed over all six bands) during the anticipated 10 years of operations, and yield a coadded map to $r\sim27.5$. The remaining 10\% of the observing time will be allocated to projects such as a Very Deep and Fast time domain survey. The goal is to make LSST data products, including a relational database of about 32 trillion observations of 40 billion objects, available to the public and scientists around the world.Comment: 57 pages, 32 color figures, version with high-resolution figures available from https://www.lsst.org/overvie

Scaling Behavior of Human Locomotor Activity Amplitude: Association with Bipolar Disorder

Scale invariance is a feature of complex biological systems, and abnormality of multi-scale behaviour may serve as an indicator of pathology. The hypothalamic suprachiasmatic nucleus (SCN) is a major node in central neural networks responsible for regulating multi-scale behaviour in measures of human locomotor activity. SCN also is implicated in the pathophysiology of bipolar disorder (BD) or manic-depressive illness, a severe, episodic disorder of mood, cognition and behaviour. Here, we investigated scaling behaviour in actigraphically recorded human motility data for potential indicators of BD, particularly its manic phase. A proposed index of scaling behaviour (Vulnerability Index [VI]) derived from such data distinguished between: [i] healthy subjects at high versus low risk of mood disorders; [ii] currently clinically stable BD patients versus matched controls; and [iii] among clinical states in BD patients