Déterminants des heures travaillées au Québec et comparaisons avec l'Ontario

In this article, we estimate the determinants of hours of work for Ontario and Quebec using Statistics Canada Labour Force Surveys. We first illustrate that intensity – hours worked per employed person - has decreased in Quebec relative to Ontario between 1997 and 2005. We then proceed to show that differences in average observed characteristics between the two provinces explain at most 10 % of the difference. We next analyze in more details the impact of industry, occupation, public sector status and union status on the distribution of hours of work. We find that if the size and distribution of unions in Quebec were the same as in Ontario, the proportion of workers in Quebec working reduced hours would decrease significantly while the proportions working long or very long hours would increase. Nous étudions dans cet article les déterminants des heures travaillées par travailleur au Québec et en Ontario à l'aide des Enquêtes sur la population active (EPA) de Statistique Canada. Nous montrons tout d'abord que le différentiel dans l'intensité de la main d'oeuvre a augmenté en défaveur du Québec sur la période 1997-2005. Nous estimons ensuite que les différences dans les caractéristiques moyennes des deux provinces expliquent à peine 10 % du différentiel. Nous analysons finalement de façon plus détaillée l'impact de la structure industrielle, de la structure occupationnelle, de l'appartenance au secteur public et de l'appartenance à un syndicat sur la distribution de heures travaillées. Nous trouvons que ce dernier facteur est le plus important : l'imposition de la structure de syndicalisation ontarienne au Québec diminue de façon significative la proportion de travailleurs à temps réduit et augmente la proportion faisant de longues ou très longues heures.Ontario, Québec, hours of work, unions, Ontario, Québec, heures travaillées, syndicalisation

French and American labour markets in response to cyclical shocks between 1986 and 2007: a DSGE approach

Until the current economic crisis, the recovery capacity of the American and French labour markets had often been compared. The United States had been considered more "resilient", namely more affected by cyclical shocks in the short term but more quickly coming back to their initial path in the medium term. As this conclusion may be modified in the context of the current crisis, it is also relevant to study if it is actually valid on the previous period. Between 1986 and 2007, the output gap of the United States presented more pronounced fluctuations and came back to the equilibrium more rapidly. However, it does not mean that the United States were more resilient since it can also result from the fact that the American economy was affected by other kinds of shocks than the French economy. To distinguish which explanation is the most relevant, it is difficult to use an astructural approach. This study is therefore based on a structural approach directly inspired from Christoffel and Linzert (2005). We use two calibrated DSGE models, one for the French economy, the other for the United States, which include a labour market matching model à la Diamond, Mortensen and Pissarides. The comparison of the impulse response functions between the two models show that differences in resilience cannot be assessed globally: they depend on the shock which affects the economy. The differences are the most significant for shocks related to the labour market but they are less sensible for standard shocks like productivity shocks or monetary shocks. We use the same DSGE models to determine the nature of historical shocks between 1986 and 2007 and to assess the contributions of these shocks to output fluctuations. According to the models, the dynamics of the two economies on the period is thus characterized by different combinations of shocks, rather than different absorption capacity of these shocks.Labour market, matching model, business fluctuations, DSGE model, resilience

Female labor supply and child care

We use household income tax data to estimate a structural model of female labor supply and utilization of paid child care outside the home. We find that child care costs have little impact on the participation decision of mothers of young children. However, they influence hours of work, as well as the decision to utilize paid child care. We use our results to simulate various policy reforms. Suppressing the APE (Parental Education Aid) would cause the participation rate in our sample to rise by 4 points and the proportion of mothers using outside paid care to rise by 2 points. Examining the effects on aggregate female labor supply of other policies that affect child care costs, we generally find that intensive effects caused by changes in working time are of the same order of magnitude as extensive effects due to changes in female participation.Child Care, female labor supply, fiscal policies

Politique monétaire optimale et effet de variété en économie ouverte

Cet article étudie la manière dont la politique monétaire doit être conduite en économie ouverte lorsque l'on prend en compte son influence sur la marge extensive de l'activité. Dans un modèle à deux pays, on montre que, contrairement aux résultats obtenus par Bilbiie, Ghironi et Melitz [2007], la politique monétaire optimale consiste à stabiliser les prix à la consommation, la stabilisation des prix à la production induisant un a justement insuffisant du taux de change réel. D'autre part, lorsque l'on tient compte de la marge intensive de l'activité, l'adoption d'un régime de change fixe entraîne une sur–volatilité macroéconomique qui génère des coûts en termes de bien–être lorsque les relations commerciales sont importantes et que les heures travaillées sont fortement élastiques au salaire réel.politique monétaire optimale; économie ouverte; effet de variété; marge extensive

Interpreting the Hours-Technology time-varying relationship

We investigate the time varying relation between hours and technology shocks using a structural business cycle model. We propose an RBC model with a Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) production function that allows for capital- and labor-augmenting technology shocks. We estimate the model with Bayesian techniques. In the full sample, we find (i) evidence in favor of a less than unitary elasticity of substitution (rejecting Cobb-Douglas) and (ii) a sizable role for capital augmenting shock for business cycles fluctuations. In rolling sub-samples, we document that the transmission of technology shocks to hours worked has been varying over time. We argue that this change is due to the increase of the elasticity of factor substitution. That is, labor and capital became less complementary throughout the sample inducing a change in the sign and size of the response of hours. We conjecture that this change may have been induced by a change in the skill composition of the labor input.Hours Worked and Business Cycles, Bayesian Methods.

La TVA sociale : bonne ou mauvaise idée ?

The quantitative and dynamic consequence of a social VAT reform, i.e. a fiscal reform consisting in substituting VAT for social contributions, is assessed using two general equilibrium models. The first one is a Walrasian model with no other frictions than distortionary taxation of labor and capital incomes and consumption. The second one introduces in addition matching frictions in the labor market. Two alternative financing schemes are considered for the practical details of implementing the social VAT. In all cases, the fiscal reform turns out to generate a small, positive long--run effect on aggregate variables and yields a modest welfare gain. In the no--friction model, this welfare gain is substantially reduced when the reform is pre--announced six quarters prior to implementation. The effect of such a pre-announced reform are smaller when labor market frictions are taken into account.social VAT, DGE, pre-announced fiscal reform.

The impact of French Zones Franches Urbaines on employment and business creation

In 2004, 41 Zones Franches Urbaines (ZFU) have replaced less generous Zones de Redynamisation Urbaine (ZRU). ZFUs are particularly generous Enterprise Zones schemes in which establishments are exempted from all taxes and social contributions for 5 years. A first wave of ZFUs was zoned in 1997, followed by a second one in 2004 and a third one in 2006. In spite of the cost of such policies (the net cost of the second-wave ZFUs was around 125 million euros in 2005), the impact has never been assessed by econometricians. In this study, we aim to evaluate the net effect of the ZFU policy on both employment and business creations, using the transformation of less generous ZRUs into ZFUs in 2004. We use micro data on establishments and jobs at an infra-municipal scale. Differences-in-differences as well as standard propensity score matching are used to try to take selection bias into account. We finally identify a significantly positive effect on both business creations and employment. Yet, these effects are weak especially when compared to the magnitude of the costs.local employment, local policies, enterprise zones, evaluation

Agglomeration economies and firm productivity: evidence from French individual data

Geographical concentration of some industries over time is hard to explain without assuming the existence of agglomeration economies. The increasing availability of accurate individual firm data has renewed interest in the quantitative evaluation of the extent of these economies. Using three administrative files on French firms' accountancy and employment, we assess the impact on firm TFP of both urbanization economies, resulting from the size of the local market, its industrial diversity and its market potential, and of localization economies, resulting from the concentration of the same or similar activities. We find strong evidence for the former: higher density of economic activities or greater market potential in a given area increase significantly the productivity of the firms located in that area. However we do not find that industrial diversity does as well. We also find evidence of localization economies, as we observe that the more concentrated in a given area an economic activity is, the more productive the firms of this industry are. Finally we show that the more qualified the local labor force is, the more productive are the firms located in that area, suggesting that skilled workers are more prone to generate and benefit from agglomeration economies.firm productivity, agglomeration, urbanization externalities, localization externalities