Forecast Encompassing as the Necessary Condition to Reject Futures Market Efficiency: Fluid Milk Futures

The traditional necessary condition for futures market inefficiency is the existence of alternative forecasting methods that produce mean squared forecast errors smaller than the futures market. Here, a more exacting requirement for futures market efficiency is proposed—forecast encompassing. Using the procedure of Harvey and Newbold, multiple forecast encompassing is tested using Chicago Mercantile Exchange fluid milk futures. Time series models and USDA experts provide competing forecasts. Results suggest milk futures do not encompass the information contained in the USDA forecasts at a two-quarter horizon. While the competing forecasts generate positive revenues, it is unlikely that returns exceed transaction costs in this relatively new market. Copyright 2005, Oxford University Press.

XAS and XMCD of Single Molecule Magnets

Molecular magnetism is here presented with emphasis concerning the single molecule magnets (SMMs). The architecture of SMMs is reviewed as well as the various ingredients promoting magnetic anisotropy and the relation between magnetic anisotropy and the dynamics of magnetization. Then it is shown how XAS and XMCD can be unique tools to unravel the magnetic properties of SMM submonolayers grafted on clean surfaces. We bring a special attention to the spectral features associated with the magnetic anisotropy and magnetization dynamics