Integrated Forecasting and Scheduling of Implicit Demand Response in Balancing Markets Using Inverse Optimization

Demand Response (DR) programs offer flexibility that is considered to hold significant potential for enhancing power system reliability and promoting the integration of renewable energy sources. Nevertheless, the distributed nature of DR resources presents challenges in developing scalable optimization tools. This paper explores a novel data-driven approach in which DR resources are modeled through their aggregate forecasts using Inverse Optimization. The proposed method utilizes historical price-consumption data to deduce DR price-response behavior via a flexibility curve. The model is assessed within the Belgian single imbalance market context, where a Balance Responsible Party (BRP) employs the inferred flexibility curve to optimize its strategic imbalance positions by managing DR resources through suitable real-time price signals. The accuracy of the estimated flexibility provided by the proposed algorithm is evaluated by comparing it with the XGboost method. The results demonstrate that the model can effectively capture DR behavior and generate profit from providing balancing energy.Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.Energy and Industr

Supervised Learning-Assisted Modeling of Flow-Based Domains in European Resource Adequacy Assessments

To represent the cross-border exchange capacities defined by the flow-based approach in the European resource adequacy assessments, transmission system operators currently employ a data-driven methodology that consists of sequential clustering and correlation steps. This methodology entails assumptions and simplifications within both clustering and correlation analyses that may lead to an erroneous representation of import-export capacities in the subsequent adequacy assessments. While the first stage of this methodology can be improved by leveraging a clustering technique tailored to adequacy assessments, the correlation step presents a poor performance in terms of accuracy and scalability. To address the latter challenges, this paper proposes a supervised learning-based model that can enhance the mapping between several relevant explanatory variables and the pre-clustered flow-based domains, leading to a more accurate representation of the flow-based domains in adequacy assessments. Furthermore, the current paper leverages supervised learning to develop a single-step approach that directly maps the selected explanatory variables to the flow-based domains using the K-Nearest Neighbors algorithm, eliminating the clustering step. This circumvents inaccuracies introduced by the significant intra-cluster discrepancies due to numerous shapes and forms of the flow-based domains and enables an enhanced modeling of the flow-based domains in adequacy assessments. In an extensive case study, we demonstrate that the proposed single-step model can significantly improve the accuracy of adequacy assessments, compared to the best-in-class result obtained by the two-step set-up. Moreover, the proposed single-step model involves no hyper-parameters, eliminates the computational complexity of the two-step set-up, and efficiently upscales to integrate the new zones joining to the flow-based market coupling.Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.Energie and Industri