MANAGING THE INCONCEIVABLE: PARTICIPATORY ASSESSMENTS OF IMPACTS AND RESPONSES TO EXTREME CLIMATE CHANGE

A comprehensive understanding of the implications of extreme climate change requires an in-depth exploration of the perceptions and reactions of the affected stakeholder groups and the lay public. The project on “Atlantic sea level rise: Adaptation to imaginable worst-case climate change” (Atlantis) has studied one such case, the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and a subsequent 5-6 meter sea-level rise. Possible methods are presented for assessing the societal consequences of impacts and adaptation options in selected European regions by involving representatives of pertinent stakeholders. Results of a comprehensive review of participatory integrated assessment methods with a view to their applicability in climate impact studies are summarized including Simulation-Gaming techniques, the Policy Exercise method, and the Focus Group technique. Succinct presentations of these three methods are provided together with short summaries of relevant earlier applications to gain insights into the possible design options. Building on these insights, four basic versions of design procedures suitable for use in the Atlantis project are presented. They draw on design elements of several methods and combine them to fit the characteristics and fulfill the needs of addressing the problem of extreme sea-level rise. The selected participatory techniques and the procedure designs might well be useful in other studies assessing climate change impacts and exploring adaptation options.sea level rise, West Antarctic ice sheet, climate change

Integrated assessments of climate change policy: Intergenerational equity and discounting

One of the key decisions that economists working on integrated studies of climate change face is the selection of the method of accounting for damages resulting from possible climate change across a long temporal scale and the method for the intertemporal comparison of the costs associated with possible greenhouse gas abatement strategies. Sensitivity tests show that the method applied and the resulting discount rate has a major impact on the optimal climate strategy. The paper provides a short review of the various techniques that have been proposed and applied in various integrated models of climate change. The underlying problem is the following dilemma. One can attempt to be consistent with the economic theory and empirical observations, but in this case the derived discount rate will be on the order of 5 to 8%. As a result, even possibly significant damages from climate change turn out to be negligible when considered at their present value. The artificially low discount rate based on ethical reasoning, on the other hand, makes our climate-related decisions and resource allocations inconsistent with the majority of other public policy decisions

State of the Art and Future Challenges for Integrated Environmental Assessment

A concise review of the evolution of the integrated environmental assessment field is presented. The opening conference of the European Forum on Integrated Environmental Assessment in 1998 is taken as a reference point. A mixed record of notable accomplishments and modest progress is detected in surveying examples in four large areas of concern to the integrated assessment community: modeling, participatory techniques, mega-assessments involving hundreds of people for several years, and organizational and community issues. Plausible reasons for slow progress in participatory assessments are sketched and possible remedies are suggested. Examples of the challenges facing the integrated assessment community are elaborated in three areas: the identification of integrated assessment as a discipline and/or profession by clearly defined distinctive features, thematic issues to be resolved, and methodological improvements that are possible and needed

Faint Infrared Flares from the Microquasar GRS 1915+105

We present simultaneous infrared and X-ray observations of the Galactic microquasar GRS 1915+105 using the Palomar 5-m telescope and Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer on July 10, 1998 UT. Over the course of 5 hours, we observed 6 faint infrared (IR) flares with peak amplitudes of $\sim 0.3-0.6$ mJy and durations of $\sim 500-600$ seconds. These flares are associated with X-ray soft-dip/soft-flare cycles, as opposed to the brighter IR flares associated with X-ray hard-dip/soft-flare cycles seen in August 1997 by Eikenberry et al. (1998). Interestingly, the IR flares begin {\it before} the X-ray oscillations, implying an ``outside-in'' origin of the IR/X-ray cycle. We also show that the quasi-steady IR excess in August 1997 is due to the pile-up of similar faint flares. We discuss the implications of this flaring behavior for understanding jet formation in microquasars.Comment: 10 pages, 4 figures Accepted for publication in ApJ Letter

Recombinant Lloviu virus as a tool to study viral replication and host responses

Next generation sequencing has revealed the presence of numerous RNA viruses in animal reservoir hosts, including many closely related to known human pathogens. Despite their zoonotic potential, most of these viruses remain understudied due to not yet being cultured. While reverse genetic systems can facilitate virus rescue, this is often hindered by missing viral genome ends. A prime example is Lloviu virus (LLOV), an uncultured filovirus that is closely related to the highly pathogenic Ebola virus. Using minigenome systems, we complemented the missing LLOV genomic ends and identified cis-acting elements required for LLOV replication that were lacking in the published sequence. We leveraged these data to generate recombinant full-length LLOV clones and rescue infectious virus. Similar to other filoviruses, recombinant LLOV (rLLOV) forms filamentous virions and induces the formation of characteristic inclusions in the cytoplasm of the infected cells, as shown by electron microscopy. Known target cells of Ebola virus, including macrophages and hepatocytes, are permissive to rLLOV infection, suggesting that humans could be potential hosts. However, inflammatory responses in human macrophages, a hallmark of Ebola virus disease, are not induced by rLLOV. Additional tropism testing identified pneumocytes as capable of robust rLLOV and Ebola virus infection. We also used rLLOV to test antivirals targeting multiple facets of the replication cycle. Rescue of uncultured viruses of pathogenic concern represents a valuable tool in our arsenal for pandemic preparedness

Decision analysis for climate change: development, equity and sustainability concerns

A large variety of decision analytical frameworks has been used in climate change assessments in recent years to provide information for policy makers regarding the available strategic options, and associated gains and losses. Simultaneously, worries have mounted over implications of both climate change and climate mitigation for the broader concerns about development, equity and sustainability. The treatment of equity issues in climate change decision analysis and decision making is reviewed first. The overview finds a diversity of scientifically rigorous attempts as well as value-laden arguments in the social science literature. The ability of various decision analytical frameworks to treat equity concern in climate change analyses is assessed to reveal that, albeit to varying degrees, most approaches can incorporate equity issues in the analysis. A simple example of analysing climate policy implications of equity predicaments is presented by applying the so-called Tolerable Windows Approach.climate change; decision analysis; decision making; equity; sustainability; Tolerable Windows Approach.