A forward-looking model for time-varying capital requirements and the New Basel Capital Accord

This paper proposes a forward-looking model for time-varying capital requirements which finds application within the New Basel Capital Accord (NBCA) framework. The model aims at reconciling two somewhat contrasting objectives of the NBCA proposal: introducing risk-sensitive capital requirements and avoiding at the same time procyclical effects. The model rests on the relationship existing between default rates and the business cycle phases and proposes a modelisation of the default probabilities which is based on a business cycle forecast over the credit horizon. The model is applied to US data over the forecasting period 1971-2002: despite a failure in predicting the early nineties recession, the objective of raising the capital requirements in anticipation of a recessions is in general satisfied. The results obtained are interesting as they suggest that there is room for dampening procyclicality of capital requirements even within a risk-sensitive framework.capital requirement; default probability; business cycle; procyclicality

The role of demographic variables in explaining financial returns in Italy

This paper contributes to the ongoing debate on the relationship between asset returns and age-structure by investigating the case of Italy, which is experiencing one of the most pronounced ageing in the world. To this end, time-series regressions are run, in which real returns on different financial assets (stocks, long- and short-term government bonds) are used as dependent variables. The dataset contains annual observations spanning over the period 1958-2004. First, as in Poterba (2001, 2004) only demographic variables are used as explanatory ones. Then, following Davis and Li (2003) the regression specifications are completed with a set of financial variables which have finance-theoretical underpinnings. Results point towards a major effect of demographic dynamics on financial asset returns which appear significantly higher in magnitude than what Poterba (2001, 2004) and Davis and Li (2003) report for US, especially in the stock market.population ageing, financial returns, stocks, bonds

The aim of the present work is to test the predictive power of the term spread in forecasting real economic growth rates and recession probabilities in Italy. According to the most recent literature, the relationship between the term spread and economic growth rates is modelled as a nonlinear one and specifically the Logistic Smooth Transition model is used, while a probit model is implemented to forecast recession probabilities. In both applications evidence supports a relevant informative content of the spread in Italy.

term structure; term spread; regime prediction

The internal efficiency of Index Option Markets:Tests on the Italian Market

The aim of the present paper is to provide evidence on the internal market efficiency of the Italian index option market. To this end a model-free approach is taken, whereby strategies involving only options are tested by means of a high frequency dataset covering the period 1 September – 31 December 2002. This piece of research thus completes our previous analysis (Brunetti and Torricelli(2003, 2006)), which focused on the cross-market efficiency of the same market. The results obtained further support the efficiency of one of the most important index options markets in Europe.index options;internal market efficiency; no-arbitrage; option spreads

The Put-Call Parity in the Index Options Markets: Further results for the Italian Mib30 Options market

The birth and success of index option markets have fostered empirical research on their efficiency. While most of the literature focuses on North American markets, studies on European markets are still limited. The aim of the present paper is to provide further evidence on a European market, the Italian index option market (MibO), by testing the validity of the most famous no-arbitrage relationship in the option markets: the Put-Call parity (PCP). The growth of the market, new facts (such as the transition to the Euro and new market rules) and the availability of a broader and better quality high frequency data set make our work different from the previous study on the same market by Cavallo and Mammola(2000). Our analysis highlights the role of frictions in the tests of the PCP and points at a substantial and increased efficiency of the Italian index option market.index options; market efficienc; put-call parity

Collected Works of Marida Bertocchi

Recensione invitata a volumeInvited Book Revie

Forward-looking estimation of default probabilities with Italian data

The solution adopted in Basel II to deal with procyclicality of capital requirements (i.e. through the cycle ratings and long-run average estimates of default probabilities) implies a reduction in the risk-sensitivity that contradicts the original spirit of the new framework.In order to preserve risk-sensitivity and to dampen procyclicality at the same time, Pederzoli and Torricelli (2005) set up a model which relies on a business cycle forecast in the estimation of the default probability and provide an application for the US. The modelling approach hinges on a forward-looking definition of capital requirements, in anticipation of the business cycle with a possible smoothing effect on the business cycle turning points.The present paper checks the robustness of the approach for the Italian case, where alternative business cycles chronologies are used and ratings have to be approximated by exploiting default data provided by the Bank of Italy. Findings suggest that the comparison between the alternative chronologies is an important issue.Basel II; business cycle; capital requirement; default probability; procyclicality

Marriage and Other Risky Assets: A Portfolio Approach

We study the joint impact of gender and marital status on financial decisions. First, we test the hypothesis that marriage represents - in a portfolio framework - a sort of safe asset, and that this effect is stronger for women. Controlling for a number of observable characteristics, we show that single women have a lower propensity to invest in risky assets than married females and males. Second, we show that the differential behavior of single women evolves over time, reflecting the increasing incidence of divorce and the expansion of female labor market participation. In particular, towards the end of our sample period, we observe a reduction in the gap between women with different family status, which can be attributed to the gradual erosion of the perception of marriage as a sort of safe asset. Our results therefore suggest that the differential behavior of single vs. married women is explained more accurately by the evolution of gender roles in society, rather than by exogenous and time invariant risk attitudes. Our empirical investigation is based on a dataset drawn from the 1989-2006 Bank of Italy Survey of Household Income and Wealth.portfolio choice; marriage; divorce; labor force participation

Modelling credit risk for innovative firms: the role of innovation measures

Financial constraints are particularly severe for R&D projects of SMEs, which cannot generally rely on equity markets and, in the EU, on a sufficiently developed VC industry. If innovative SMEs have to depend on banks to finance their R&D projects, it is particularly important to develop models able to estimate their probability of default (PD) in consideration of their peculiar features. Based on the signaling value of some innovative assets, the purpose of this paper is to show the importance to include them into models which have proved to be successful for SMEs. To this end, we take a logit model and test it on a unique dataset of innovative SMEs (based on PATSTAT database, EPO BULLETIN and AMADEUS) to estimate a two-year PD with default years 2006-2008. In the regression analysis the innovation-related variables are two in order to account for R&D productivity at the level of the firm and to consider the value of the inventive output. Our analyses first address measurement issues concerning innovation-related variable and then show that, while the accounting variables and the patent value are always significant with the expected sign, the patent number per se reduces the PD only in the presence of an appropriate equity level.innovative SMEs; default probability; patent value

Marriage and Other Risky Assets: A Portfolio Approach

We study the joint impact of gender and marital status on financial decisions. First, we test the hypothesis that marriage represents - in a portfolio framework - a sort of safe asset, and that this effect is stronger for women. Controlling for a number of observable characteristics, we show that single women have a lower propensity to invest in risky assets than married females and males. Second, we show that the differential behavior of single women evolves over time, reflecting the increasing incidence of divorce and the expansion of female labor market participation. In particular, towards the end of our sample period, we observe a reduction in the gap between women with different family status, which can be attributed to the gradual erosion of the perception of marriage as a sort of safe asset. Our results therefore suggest that the differential behavior of single vs. married women can be explained by the evolution of gender roles in society, even after controlling for differential risk attitudes. Our empirical investigation is based on a dataset drawn from the 1989-2006 Bank of Italy Survey of Household Income and Wealth.Portfolio choice, marriage, divorce, labor force participation