The aim of the present work is to test the predictive power of the term spread in forecasting real economic growth rates and recession probabilities in Italy. According to the most recent literature, the relationship between the term spread and economic growth rates is modelled as a nonlinear one and specifically the Logistic Smooth Transition model is used, while a probit model is implemented to forecast recession probabilities. In both applications evidence supports a relevant informative content of the spread in Italy.

term structure; term spread; regime prediction

A forward-looking model for time-varying capital requirements and the New Basel Capital Accord

This paper proposes a forward-looking model for time-varying capital requirements which finds application within the New Basel Capital Accord (NBCA) framework. The model aims at reconciling two somewhat contrasting objectives of the NBCA proposal: introducing risk-sensitive capital requirements and avoiding at the same time procyclical effects. The model rests on the relationship existing between default rates and the business cycle phases and proposes a modelisation of the default probabilities which is based on a business cycle forecast over the credit horizon. The model is applied to US data over the forecasting period 1971-2002: despite a failure in predicting the early nineties recession, the objective of raising the capital requirements in anticipation of a recessions is in general satisfied. The results obtained are interesting as they suggest that there is room for dampening procyclicality of capital requirements even within a risk-sensitive framework.capital requirement; default probability; business cycle; procyclicality

Valuation of asset and volatility derivatives using decoupled time-changed L\'evy processes

In this paper we propose a general derivative pricing framework which employs decoupled time-changed (DTC) L\'evy processes to model the underlying asset of contingent claims. A DTC L\'evy process is a generalized time-changed L\'evy process whose continuous and pure jump parts are allowed to follow separate random time scalings; we devise the martingale structure for a DTC L\'evy-driven asset and revisit many popular models which fall under this framework. Postulating different time changes for the underlying L\'evy decomposition allows to introduce asset price models consistent with the assumption of a correlated pair of continuous and jump market activities; we study one illustrative DTC model having this property by assuming that the instantaneous activity rates follow the the so-called Wishart process. The theory developed is applied to the problem of pricing claims depending not only on the price or the volatility of an underlying asset, but also to more sophisticated derivatives that pay-off on the joint performance of these two financial variables, like the target volatility option (TVO). We solve the pricing problem through a Fourier-inversion method; numerical computations validating our technique are provided.Comment: 30 Pages, 5 Tables, 3 figures. Third revised version: numerical analysis extende

Forward-looking estimation of default probabilities with Italian data

The solution adopted in Basel II to deal with procyclicality of capital requirements (i.e. through the cycle ratings and long-run average estimates of default probabilities) implies a reduction in the risk-sensitivity that contradicts the original spirit of the new framework.In order to preserve risk-sensitivity and to dampen procyclicality at the same time, Pederzoli and Torricelli (2005) set up a model which relies on a business cycle forecast in the estimation of the default probability and provide an application for the US. The modelling approach hinges on a forward-looking definition of capital requirements, in anticipation of the business cycle with a possible smoothing effect on the business cycle turning points.The present paper checks the robustness of the approach for the Italian case, where alternative business cycles chronologies are used and ratings have to be approximated by exploiting default data provided by the Bank of Italy. Findings suggest that the comparison between the alternative chronologies is an important issue.Basel II; business cycle; capital requirement; default probability; procyclicality

Call and put implied volatilities and the derivation of option implied trees

Standard methodologies for the derivation of implied trees from option prices are based on the validity of the put-call parity. Muzzioli and Torricelli (2002) propose a methodology which accounts for PCP violations. Based on this latter approach the present paper advances in two main directions. First we propose a different methodology in order to imply the interval of artificial probabilities at each node of the tree. Secondly, we perform an empirical validation of the implied tree obtained, both in the sample and out of sample, by using DAX index options data set covering the period from January 4, 1999 to December 28, 2000. Numerical results are compared with one of the most used standard methodologies, i.e. Derman and Kani’s. The results suggest that the estimation proposed, by taking into account the informational content of both call and put prices, highly improves both the in-the-sample fitting and the out-of-sample performance.Binomial Method; Put-Call Parity; Choquet Pricing; Interval Tree.

Tuning the effective coupling of an AFM lever to a thermal bath

Fabrication of Nano-Electro-Mechanical-Systems (NEMS) of high quality is nowadays extremely efficient. These NEMS will be used as sensors and actuators in integrated systems. Their use however raises questions about their interface (actuation, detection, read out) with external detection and control systems. Their operation implies many fundamental questions related to single particle effects such as Coulomb blockade, light matter interactions such as radiation pressure, thermal effects, Casimir forces and the coupling of nanosystems to external world (thermal fluctuations, back action effect). Here we specifically present how the damping of an oscillating cantilever can be tuned in two radically different ways: i) through an electro-mechanical coupling in the presence of a strong Johnson noise, ii) through an external feedback control of thermal fluctuations which is the cold damping closely related to Maxwell's demon. This shows how the interplay between MEMS or NEMS external control and their coupling to a thermal bath can lead to a wealth of effects that are nowadays extensively studied in different areas

The role of demographic variables in explaining financial returns in Italy

This paper contributes to the ongoing debate on the relationship between asset returns and age-structure by investigating the case of Italy, which is experiencing one of the most pronounced ageing in the world. To this end, time-series regressions are run, in which real returns on different financial assets (stocks, long- and short-term government bonds) are used as dependent variables. The dataset contains annual observations spanning over the period 1958-2004. First, as in Poterba (2001, 2004) only demographic variables are used as explanatory ones. Then, following Davis and Li (2003) the regression specifications are completed with a set of financial variables which have finance-theoretical underpinnings. Results point towards a major effect of demographic dynamics on financial asset returns which appear significantly higher in magnitude than what Poterba (2001, 2004) and Davis and Li (2003) report for US, especially in the stock market.population ageing, financial returns, stocks, bonds